Sunday, January 31, 2016

Dollar Index wild swing but closed with little change

Broke TLU3, TLD2 and TLU4 and recovered, resisted by TLU3.  Dollar Index need to break this week high (99.88)  and TLD2 will be the trend support.  Break below TLD2 for 2-3 days will bring short term bearish on the dollar index.
Resistance at  99.8, TLU3, 100.3
Support at TLU4, TLD2, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

COT on Forex

As per my sharing on JPY last 2 weeks, if you long, time to take partial/full profit as it hit one of the strong resistance range

Commodities Update - 30 Jan 16

BDI created new low at 317 (29 Jan) from 354 (22 Jan)

Summary
Most commodities continue to close higher

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Wheat
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Copper (1)
  • Palladium (1)
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Orange Juice
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Coffee Arabica
  • Platinum (1)
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average







Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke lhf in weekly chart. New diff created, broke and close above diff and 5025.  Need to close above 5025 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around  TLD3, TLU3, 5,138,  TLD4, 5,266, TLD5, TLU2, 5,316
Potential support around 5,025, TLU4, 4,833, TLD1, 4,696

Japan
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke lhf 4ET and closed above daily and weekly diff.  Also broke lhf in weekly chart.
Need to close above weekly diff (17,741) for 2-3 days for upside to continue
Sharp increased in COT buying interest even before BOJ announced negative interest rate
Potential resistance around 17,890, TLU2, 18,565, 19,092, TLU3, 19,740
Potential support around  17,328, TLD2, 16,896, 16,581, TLU4, 15,418


Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New weekly diff formed.  broke daily diff and manage to close above TLD1.  Need to overcome TLD2 to continue the short term bullish
Potential resistance around TLD2, 20,011, TLU2, TLD4, 21,080, 21,682
Potential support around 19,073, TLD1,  TLU3, 18,051, 16,648

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New weekly diff is formed.  Resisted by daily diff and TLD1.  Still in consolidation.  If can broke and stay above TLD1 for 2-3 days, can see short term bullish else may try to cover the gap on Mar 2009
Potential resistance around  8,637, TLD1, 9,006, 9,195, TLD2
Potential support around  8,102, TLU3, 6,727, 5,939, 4,990

UK
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke lhf in weekly chart.  Broke lhf 3ET in daily chart closed above weekly diff.  Need to continue to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around  TLD3, 6,297, TLU2, 6,429, 6,578
Potential support around 6,125, TLD1, 6,070, TLD2, 6,010, 5,894, TLU1, 5,768

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New diff formed and closed within the diff.  In consolidation, despite bullishness in US on Fri, failed to push it higher.  Need to be caution. Need to break and close above 9,924 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 9,942, 10,189, TLU4, 10,653
Potential support around TLU1, 9,679, 9,468, TLD1, 9,216, 8,928, 8,758

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New weekly diff formed.  Broke lhf on weekly chart and closed above weekly diff.  TLD3 is the next trend resistance to overcome and potential trend reversal.
Potential resistance around  7,538, 7,682, TLD3, 7,817, TLU2, 7,929
Potential support around 7,417, 7,216, 7,100, 6,887

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
01 Feb, Mon

  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
  • 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
  • 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
02 Feb, Tue
  • 1130 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
  • 1330 INR Interest Rate Decision 
  • 1655 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jan) 
  • 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Jan)
03 Feb, Wed
  • 0545 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)  
  • 1730 GBP Services PMI (Jan) 
  • 2115 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
  • 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
04 Feb, Thu
  • 2000 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Feb)  
05 Feb, Fri
  • 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 2130 USD  Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 
  • 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 2130 CAD Employment Change (Jan)
  • 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Jan)

Indices Performance Chart - 30 Jan 16

Most markets closed higher for the week on Fri BOJ (Bank of Japan)  introduced negative interest rates
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • DOW (1) (increased for few weeks)
  • S&P (decreased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for few weeks)
  • Russell (1) (decreased for 1st week)



Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



US markets continue to go higher creating new weekly diff and broke pwh
Mon, Wed and Fri US will release important data.  These data may provide momentum for US to go higher with positive data.




Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 16,503, 16,745, 17,083, 17,271, TLD1, TLD2
Potential support around  16,246, 15581, TLU3, 15,376

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around  1,973, TLD2, 1,996, 2,028, 2,045
Potential support around 1,930,  TLD1, 1,886, TLU2, 1,820

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,347, TLU6, TLU1, 4,537, TLD2, 4,640
Potential support around  4,271,  4,193, TLU2, TLD1, 4,089

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,049, 1,082, TLD1,  1,114, TLD3, TLU2
Potential support around TLD2, 1,009, 951, 899

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Dollar Index broke out

Broke out on Thur and tested 99.8 but end up with -roc.  Fri formed inside day.  Dollar Index need to continue to close above TLD2 for more upside.
Resistance at  99.8, 100.3
Support at TLD2, TLU3, TLU4, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

COT on Forex
It is a coincidence or something that I am not aware of but it seem commodities related currencies buying interest are building up.
GBP and JPY COT remained at extreme

  

JPY (USDJPY) had broke lhf in 2ET on daily chart.  On weekly chart, it formed outside day with new diff.  Overall, it look good.
GBP (GBPUSD) waiting for 2ET.

Commodities Update - 23 Jan 16

BDI slide again from 373 (15 Jan) to 354 (22 Jan)

Summary
Most commodities rebound and closed higher except for Coffee and Sugar closed much lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica
  • Wheat
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Copper (1)
  • Palladium (1)
  • Platinum (1)
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices short term support and resistance

Most had formed a new Diff this week, closing above Diff for 2-3 days signal short term bullish.  If retrace within Diff, markets still waiting for something more concrete.

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New diff created and trade within the diff for the week, need to break and close above 5025 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around  5,025, TLD3, TLU3, 5,138,  TLD4, 5,266
Potential support around TLU4, 4,833, TLD1, 4,696, 4,601, TLD2

Japan
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
New daily and weekly Diff created.  Closed above daily diff and within weekly diff.
Need to close above weekly diff (17,741) for 2-3 days for upside to continue
Potential resistance around 17,328, TLD2, 17,890, TLU2, 18,565
Potential support around  16,896, 16,581, TLU4, 15,418, 14,366

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New Diff formed and managed to closed above TLD1 and diff.  Need to continue to close above TLD1 for 2-3 days to resume short term bullish.
Potential resistance around 20,011, TLD2, TLU2, TLD4, 21,080, 21,682
Potential support around TLD1, 19,073, TLU3, 18,051, 16,648

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New diff is created and managed to close above 8,102.  Need to continue to close above TLD1 to continue short term upside else may try to cover the gap on Mar 2009
Potential resistance around  8,637, TLD1, 9,006, 9,195, TLD2
Potential support around  8,102, TLU3, 6,727, 5,939, 4,990

UK
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New daily and wekly diff are formed. Managed to close above daily diff but within weekly diff.  Need to close above TLU1 for 2-3 days for short term positive sentiment to continue.
Potential resistance around  6,010, 6,070, TLD2, TLD1, 6,297, TLU2
Potential support around 5,894, TLU1, 5,768, 5,637, 5,433

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New daily and weekly diff are formed.  Closed within daily and above TLU1.  Need to close above TLU1 for 2-3 days for short term positive sentiment to continue.
Potential resistance around 9,942, 10,189, TLU4, 10,653
Potential support around TLU1, 9,679, 9,468, TLD1, 9,216, 8,928, 8,758

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New diff is formed and closed above Diff but below TLD2.  Need to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days to see some upside

Potential resistance around  7,538, TLD2, 7,682, 7,817
Potential support around 7,417, 7,216, 7,100, 6,887

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
25 Jan, Mon

  • 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
26 Jan, Tue
  • Australia, India holiday
  • 0200 ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 1845 BoE Gov Carney Speaks 
  • 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)  
27 Jan, Wed
  • 0830 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 2300 USD New Home Sales (Dec) 
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
28 Jan, Thu
  • 0300 USD FOMC Statement           
  • 0300 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision   
  • 0400 NZD Interest Rate Decision 
  • 0400 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
  • 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
  • 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
29 Jan, Fri
  • 1400 BoJ Press Conference     
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Nov)

Indices Performance Chart - 23 Jan 16

Global markets rebounded on Thur and Fri after ECB signal to have more stimulus while speculation on Japan and China may also take steps to calm markets.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • None
Neutral

  • None
DT

  • DOW (increased for 3rd week)
  • S&P (increased for 3rd week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 3rd week)
  • Russell (1) (increased for few weeks)


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


This week DOW had tested one of the strong trend support (TLU3) and managed to closed above the support while Nasdaq managed to close above strong trend support (TLU2).  US created a new recent low on Wed and broke lhf on Thur and Fri. No doubt COT buying interest is rising but still need to be caution.
 


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 16,246, 16,503, 16,745, 17,083, 17,271
Potential support around  15581, TLU3, 15,376, 14,812
S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around  1,930, 1,973, TLD2, 1,996, 2,028
Potential support around TLD1, 1,886, TLU2, 1,820, 1,737

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,271, 4,347, TLU6, TLU1, 4,537, TLD2, TLU9
Potential support around  4,193, TLU2, TLD1, 4,089, 3,956

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD2, 1,049, 1,082, 1,114, TLU2
Potential support around 1,009, 951, 899

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Dollar Index may break soon

On weekly chart, Dollar Index formed an inside day (=> directionless) . TLU3 is an important support, closing below TLU3 for 2-3 days show short term weakness.  Closing above TLD2 for 2-3 days is a breakout, short term bullish
Resistance at TLD2, 99.8, 100.3
Support at TLU3, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA



COT at extreme

  • GBP COT buying interest at extreme  
    • Can monitor for short term trade to go long with LHF 2ET
  • JPY COT Selling interest at extreme
    • Can monitor for short term trade to go short with HLF 2ET

Commodities Update - 16 Jan 16

BDI slide further from 429 (08 Jan) to 373 (15 Jan)

Summary
Most commodities continue to close lower.  Energy is the worst hit, Natural gas down by 14% and Crude down by 12%

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica
  • Corn
  • Wheat
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Silver
  • Copper (1)
  • Palladium (1)
  • Platinum
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Crude
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke TLU4, long term trend support and 24 Aug DL.  Need to break and close above 5,025 for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 4,833, TLU4, 5,025, TLU3, 5,138
Potential support around TLD1, 4,696, 4,601, TLD2

Japan
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
16,581 tested and closed above, if failed to hold, potential of 1,000 points downward
Potential resistance around 16,896, 17,328, 17,890, TLU2, 18,565
Potential support around 16,581, 15,418, 14,366


Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke strong trend support (TLU2) and down by 1,000 pts.  If failed to recover at TLD1, may see another 1,000 pts downward.
Potential resistance around 20,011, TLD2, TLU2, 21,080, TLD4, 21,682
Potential support around TLD1, 19,073, 18,051, 16,648

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT
This week closed just below 8,102, if failed to recover for another day or 2, will see another 1,000 pts downward towards 6,727 to cover the gap on Mar 2009
Potential resistance around  8,102, 8,637, TLD2, 9,006, 9,195
Potential support around  6,727, 5,939, 4,990

UK
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Testing TLU1 (Strong trend support) and consolidating for the week but closed below it.  Closing below 5,768 for 2-3 days will see more sell down
Potential resistance around TLU1, 5,894, 6,010, 6,070, TLD2, TLD1, TLU2

Potential support around 5,768, 5,637, 5,433

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
False break out and sell down to close below TLU1 (Strong trend support).  Next potential rebound  will be at TLD1 if the selling continue.
Potential resistance around 9,679, TLU1, 9,942, 10,189, TLU4, 10,653
Potential support around 9,468, TLD1, 9,216, 8,928, 8,758

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
In consolidation, resisted by TLD2.  If can closed above TLD2 for 2-3 days, may see some upside.
Potential resistance around  7,538, TLD2, 7,682, 7,817
Potential support around 7,417, 7,216, 7,100, 6,887

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
18 Jan, Mon

  • US holiday
  • No important data
19 Jan, Tue
  • 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 1000 CNY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)  
  • 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
  • 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Dec)
20 Jan, Wed
  • 0545  NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 
  • 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Dec)
  • 2130 USD Building Permits (Dec)
  • 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 2300 CAD Interest Rate Decision
21 Jan, Thu
  • 2045 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
  • 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
22 Jan, Fri
  • 0000 USD  Crude Oil Inventories
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
  • 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2300 USD  Existing Home Sales (Dec) 

Indices Performance Chart - 16 Jan 16

Global markets down between 2-5%.  COT buying interest continue to pick up

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • DOW (increased for 2nd week)
  • S&P (increased for 2nd week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (1) (increased for few weeks)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


S&P and Nasdaq have tested the strong trend support and closed above it while DOW yet to test.  Based on COT buying interest increasing, I will build up my long positions gradually when there is a signal to long.  I wil go small for 1st ET and add on for every LHF break.


DOW
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 16,246, 16,503, 16,745, 17,083, 17,271
Potential support around  15581, TLU3, 15,376, 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU2, 1,886,  TLD1,  1,930, 1,973, TLD2, 1,996
Potential support around 1,820, 1,737

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,193, 4,271, 4,347, TLU6, TLU1, 4,537, TLU9
Potential support around  TLU2, TLD1, 4,089, 3,956

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD2, 1,049, 1,082, 1,114, TLU2
Potential support around 1,009, 951, 899

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Dollar Index tested new recent high

Dollar Index going higher gradually. Breaking 98.3 support for 2-3 days may test 97.3 level
Resistance at TLD2, 99.8, 100.3
Support at TLU3, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

GBP COT buying interest at extreme
Can monitor GBP for short term trade, potential rebound but need to wait for signal