Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Commitments of Traders (23 Dec 2014)

This is an ad hoc posting due to delay in releasing COT data

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Copper (1)
  • Coffee Arabica (from neutral to DT)
  • Natural Gas (1) (from neutral to DT)
  • Platinum
  • Sugar Raw (from DT to neutral)
Up Trend
  • Soybean Meal
  • Palladium

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Up Trend
  • Dow (sharp increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for few weeks)
  • S&P (increased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (decreased for 1st week)

(1) COT Index > 90
(2) No COT data available

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Rough Rice failed to breakout

Posting on Rough Rice (27 Dec 14) waiting for potential breakout, instead of breakout, it breakdown.  No trade was done, therefore no losses.  By right should do a short but by the time I discovered is too late too short.

Oats Seasonal Pattern?

Based on CMC weekly chart with 4 years of data (max on CMC), Oats seem to have a seasonal pattern of forming a low on last week of Dec or 1st week of Jan and trade higher till Feb.  I will enter a small if break LHF in weekly chart with stop loss at 282 (based on CMC year 2012 low).

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Rough Rice and Russell

Rough Rice seem to be forming an ascending triangle, may take 2 weeks or more for a potential break out. 

Russell had broke the range bound (or box theory).  May wait for confirmation on the breakout or enter small positions to build up.  

US Dollar Index hit new high

US Dollar continue to hit new high 90.41 and closed at 90.31 for the week.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 27 Dec 14

BDI closed at 782 (24 Dec) for year 2014 from previous week at 803 (19 Dec)

Small movement on commodities.  Corn continue to hedge higher while natural gas broke strong support level.

Trade I am in are

  • Corn (Entry on 20 Nov & 18 Dec)
  • Soybean Meal (Entry on 18 Dec)
  • Cotton (Entry on 26 Nov & 22 Dec)
  • Lumber (Entry on 02, 11 Dec & 18 Dec)
Closed Trade

  • Wheat (Entry on 21 Nov, Closed on 22 Dec)
I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

  • UT
    • Corn, Wheat, Soybean Meal
    • Orange Juice
    • Palladium (Neutral to UT)
  • Neutral
    • None
  • DT
    • Oats 
    • Lumber 
    • Sugar Raw, US Cocoa 
    • Rough Rice, Cotton

** Due to festive season COT Data will be delay till 31 Dec 2014 (SG Time) 

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


Indices Performance Chart - 27 Dec 14

This week most markets edge higher 1% or more despite is a short trading week especially for Europe and Hong Kong markets.

** Due to festive season COT Data will be delay till 31 Dec 2014 (SG Time)

All the 4 US indices broke LHF in weekly chart.  Dow had also broke the inner band resistance and likely continue to march higher to test the upper band resistance.

CMC Client Sentiment  charts on US indices
More bullish on Nasdaq and Russell (Small Cap 2000)