Sunday, October 29, 2017

Dollar Index closed with a shooting start

Dollar Index broke lhf on the weekly chart, rallied and closed above 94.0. Fri closed with a shooting star, need to watch out on Mon trading, potential pull back.  Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8
Support at 94.0, TLD3, 93.0, TLU9, 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0



Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 28 Oct 17

BDI lower from 1,578 (20 Oct) to 1,546 (27 Oct)
Harpex lower from 505.14 (14 Oct) to 494.11 (21 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee (1)
  • Corn
  • Crude (1)
  • Natural Gas (1)
Neutral
  • Sugar (1)
Up Trend
  • Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Copper
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets - 28 Oct 17

Due to service provider had migrated to a new platform, they had removed of the features that on the old platform.  I have checked with them and they have no intention to have those features anymore, thus these charts are omitted from this week onward.

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq create a new historic high.  Russell continues to be resisted.  

BDI and Harpex pull back.

Dollar Index tested 95.0 resistance level and closed with a shooting star.

Various countries will report their Manufacturing PMI.  Most important will be on Thu, 2 Nov at 0200 Hrs Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Statement.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
  • Russell
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,435, 24,847
Potential support around 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409, 22,121,TLU6,  22,027

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, TLU1, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 6,118, 6,061, 6,003, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,483, TLU1, 1,448, 1,419, 1,399, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
30 Oct, Mon
  • 2030 USD US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)
31 Oct, Tue
  • Germany holiday
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
  • 1100 JPY Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
  • 1150 JPY Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY) 
  • 1430 JPY Japan BoJ Press Conference
  • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
  • 1800 EUR Europe GDP (YoY)
  • 2030 CAD Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug)
  • 2200 USD US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 
01 Nov, Wed
  • 0545 NZD New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 0945 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
  • 1730 GBP UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
  • 2015 USD US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)  
  • 2030 GBP UK BOE's Governor Carney speech
  • 2200 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)  
  • 2230 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
02 Nov, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
  • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision  
  • 0830 AUD Australia Trade Balance
  • 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)   
  • 1655 EUR German Unemployment Change (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Construction PMI (Oct) 
  • 2000 GBP UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Oct)   
  • 2000 GBP UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes   
  • 2030 GBP UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks    
03 Nov, Fri
  • Japan holiday
  • 0830 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 
  • 2030 USD US Unemployment Rate (Oct) 
  • 2030 CAD Canada Employment Change (Oct) 
  • 2300 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Monday, October 23, 2017

Dollar Index continues to stay above 93

Dollar Index must not close below recent low (92.5). To continue with the uptrend, it needs to break and close above the recent high.
Resistance at TLD3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, TLU8
Support at 93.0, TLU9, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0, TLD2, 90.6



Commodities Update - 21 Oct 17

BDI closed at 1,578 (20 Oct)
Harpex closed at 505.14 (14 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee (1)
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Sugar (1)
Up Trend
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Copper
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets - 21 Oct 17

Due to service provider had changed their platform, I have a challenging time finding the chart with instrument comparison features and some of those colors I used on the charts are no longer readable on the new platform.  I need some time to readjust the color to be readable.

US markets closed higher.  Dollar Index continues to stay above 93.0.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Russell
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
23 Oct, Mon
  • No important data
24 Oct, Tue
  • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
25 Oct, Wed
  • 0830 AUD Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 
  • 2030 USD US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 1630 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2200 USD US New Home Sales (Sep) 
  • 2200 CAD Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 2200 CAD Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2315 CAD Canada BoC Press Conference
26 Oct, Thu
  • 0115 CAD Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks    
  • 1945 EUR Europe Deposit Facility Rate 
  • 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
  • 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference     
  • 2200 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)
27 Sep, Fri
  • 0830 AUD Australia Producer Price Index
  • 2030 USD US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Sunday, October 15, 2017

No update of blog for this week

Due to my godmother had passed away, I will not be updating my blog for this week.


Here are the COT charts 


Download Commodities COT

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Dollar Index closed above 93.0

Dollar Index broke and closed above 93.0.  It also tested 94.0 and TLD3 resistance level.
Watch out for 12 Oct release of FOMC Minutes and ECB President Draghi's Speech.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3. 95.0, TLU8
Support at 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 Oct 17

BDI rose from 1,356 (29 Sep) to 1,405 (06 Oct)
Harpex continue to close lower for 2nd week from 513.79 (23 Sep) to 506.34 (30 Sep)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude
Up Trend
  • Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 07 Oct 17

Asia and US closed higher while Europe closed mixed.
US markets created a historic high.
BDI rose, Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke 93 resistance level.

On 12 Oct, FOMC Minutes at 0200 Hrs while ECB President Draghi's Speech at 2230 Hrs.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets created a historic high.  On the weekly chart, Dow and Nasdaq broke lhf.  Russell continues the run-up for 4 consecutive weeks.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 22,717, TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 6,003, 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Oct, Mon
  • Canada and Japan holiday.
  • No important data
10 Oct, Tue
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) 
11 Oct, Wed
  • 2200 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)   
12 Oct, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Minutes*
  • 2030 USD US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2230 EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
  • 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories
13 Sep, Fri
  • 2030 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Dollar Index broke and close above 92.0

Dollar Index broke 92.0 and 93.0.  It failed to close above 93.0.
On the weekly chart, it broke lhf and outside day 08 Sep.
Need to stay above 93.0 for more upside.
Resistance at 93.0, 94.0, TLD3. 95.0
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 30 Sep 17

BDI fell sharply from 1,502 (22 Sep) to 1,356 (29 Sep)
Harpex closed lower from 517.07 (16 Sep) to 513.79 (23 Sep)

Summary
Commodities continue to close mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 30 Sep 17

Europe and US closed higher while most Asia closed lower.
US markets closed higher.  Russell created the new historic high.
BDI and Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke and closed above 92.  Need to stay above 93.0 for more upside.

China is on a long holiday. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks on Thu, US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Fri.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets closed higher.  On the weekly chart, Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke pwl and recovered with closed with a +roc.  Russell rallied and created the new historic high.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,003, 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

02 Oct, Mon
  • China, Hong Kong and India holiday.
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) 
  • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 2200 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
03 Oct, Tue
  • China and Germany holiday.
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Rate Statement
  • 1630 GBP UK Construction PMI (Sep)
04 Oct, Wed
  • China holiday.
  • 2015 USD US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
  • 2200 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
05 Oct, Thu
  • China and Hong Kong holiday
  • 0315 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • 0830 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 1930 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
29 Sep, Fri
  • China holiday
  • 2030 USD US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
  • 2030 USD US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
  • 2030 CAD Canada Employment Change (Sep) 
  • 2200 CAD Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)