Sunday, March 26, 2017

Dollar Index continue to pull back

Dollar Index continue to pull back broke few supports and trend channel.  An outside day is formed on daily chart.  Dollar index need to break and stay above 99.8 and TLD5 else may see testing lower to TLU9 or even 98.3.
Resistance at 99.8, TLD5, 100.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 101.5, TLD6, TLU6
Support at 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 25 Mar 17

BDI closed at 1240 (24 Mar) near to last year high at 1257 (18 Nov 2016)
Harpex broke 400 mark to close at 404.35 (18 Mar)

Summary
Most metals closed higher, grains closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Cocoa (1)
  • Soybean Oil
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Cotton
  • Silver
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 








Indices Performance Chart - 25 Mar 17

Most markets closed lower with dollar index weakening.  BDI shot up near to last year high where Harpex broke 400 marks.  This week important data will be US GDP on Thu and China Manufacturing PMI on Fri.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed lower and broke hlf on the weekly charts.  After the sell-down on Tue, the markets are directionless. Markets need to break recent high to continue with the run.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2, TLU11, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
Potential support around TLU7, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

27 Mar, Mon
  • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) 
28 Mar, Tue
  • 2030 USD Goods Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)   
  • 2210 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
29 Mar, Wed
  • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
30 Mar, Thu
  • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
31 Mar, Fri
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
  • 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Mar)
  • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
  • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jan)

Sunday, March 12, 2017

No update on next week

Due to work commitment, there will be no update for one week.

Dollar Index pull back

Despite better than expected job data, Dollar Index pull back broke hlf in the daily chart. In the weekly chart, an inside day is formed.  Watch out for Thu 0200 (SGT), US interest rate decision.
Resistance at 101.5, TLD6, TLU6, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 100.3, TLD5, 99.8, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 11 Mar 17

BDI moved higher to 1086 (10 Mar) from 939 (03 Mar)
Harpex also moved higher to 351.84 (04 Mar) from 343.52 (25 Feb)  

Summary
Most commodities closed lower

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Cocoa (1)
  • Soybean Oil
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Soybean Meal
  • Lumber
  • Cotton
  • Silver
Neutral
  • Crude
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 








Indices Performance Chart - 11 Mar 17

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls data were better than expected. Europe closed higher while Asia and US closed mixed.  Dollar index pulls back and broke hlf.  BDI and Harpex continue to improve.

16 Mar, Thu will be full of important data.  Starting from 0200 Hrs (SGT), US interest rate. follow by in the afternoon BoJ Press Conference and Swiss (CHF) Interest rate.  UK (GBP) interest rate in the evening.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed mixed.  Dow and Nasdaq closed with an inside day in the weekly chart while S&P and Russell broke hlf on the weekly chart.  Russell back to the previous consolidating range.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1,2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
Potential support around TLU4, TLU7, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

13 Mar, Mon
  • 2130 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 
14 Mar, Tue
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
  • 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Feb)
15 Mar, Wed
  • 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan)
  • 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Feb)
  • 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
16 Mar, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Economic Projections
  • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
  • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 0230 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • 0545 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 0830 AUD Employment Change (Feb)
  • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
  • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 1630 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • 1630 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
  • 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 2000 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 
  • 2030 USD Building Permits (Feb)
  • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
  • 2200 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)   
17 Mar, Fri
  • No imporant data

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Dollar Index broke lhf and resistance

Dollar Index broke lhf (in the weekly chart) and closed above 101.5 and TLD5 resistance.
Resistance at TLD5, 101.5, TLU6, Trend Channel (Blue)
Support at  100.3, Trend Channel (Blue), 99.8, 98.3, TLU7, TLU9, 97.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 04 Mar 17

BDI continue to close higher from 875 (24 Feb) to 939 (03 Mar)
Harpex moving up higher from 330.40 (18 Feb) to 343.52 (25 Feb) 

Summary
Energy and metals closed lower while most soft commodiites  closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Soybean Oil
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Soybean Meal
  • Lumber
  • Cotton
  • Silver
Neutral
  • Crude
Down Trend
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






Indices Performance Chart - 04 Mar 17

Most Asia closed lower while Europe and US closed higher.  US markets continue to close higher except for Russell.
Speech by Fed Yellen on 4 Mar, 0200 (SGT) said ‘likely’ rate hike at mid of Mar and hinted more rate hike than planned for this year. 
BDI and Harpex move higher. Dollar Index broke lhf and resistance.
ECB Press Conference on Thu. US NFP and unemployment Rate on Fri.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets continue to closes higher except for Russell.
Russell hovering around previous range bound resistance level.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, TLU2, 19,968, TLU11, 19,440, TLU4, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1,2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
Potential support around TLU4, TLU7, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around  TLU1, 1,389,1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

06 Mar, Mon
  • 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
07 Mar, Tue
  • 1130 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
  • 1130 AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Feb) 
08 Mar, Wed
  • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 1000 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Feb)
  • 2115 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) 
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
09 Mar, Thu
  • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 2045 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
  • 2130 EUR ECB Press Conference
10 Mar, Fri
  • 1730 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan)
  • 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
  • 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Feb) 
  • 2130 CAD Employment Change (Feb)