Sunday, August 20, 2017

Dollar Index closed above support

Dollar index pierce thru support and rebounded.  In the daily chart, dollar index edging higher.  In the weekly chart, dollar index is consolidating.  Dollar index need to maintain above 93 support for momentum to go higher.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
Support at 93.0, TLD5, TLD2, 92.0



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 19 Aug 17

BDI broke 1,000 mark from 933 (28 Jul) to 1260 (18 Aug)
Harpex continue to go higher from 470.25 (22 Jul) to 486.66 (12 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Sugar (1)
  • Cocoa (1)
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • Oats
  • Gold
Down Trend
  • Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 19 Aug 17

Most markets closed lower this week.
US markets broke hlf 2 ET while trend had started to turn down.
Dollar Index tested support and rebounded.
BDI broke above 1,000 mark.  Harpex continues to move higher.
Most commodities closed lower.

Not much important data is releasing this week.  


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • Nasdaq
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets broke hlf 2 ET on the daily charts.   While trend had started to turn down for some.  On the weekly chart, Russell tested 50 SMA. Not much important data to be released by the US this week.  

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 22,027, 22,121, 23,462
Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,450, 2,480, TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,890, 5,952, TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, 1,420, 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
      21 Aug, Mon
      • No important data
      22 Aug, Tue
      • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
      23 Aug, Wed
      • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jul) 
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      24 Aug, Thu
      • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jul)
      25 Aug, Fri
      • 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
      • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) 
      • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) 

      Sunday, August 6, 2017

      No update of blog on 6 Aug and 13 Aug

      Due to work and personal commitment, no update on the blog for these 2 weeks.

      Here are the COT charts