Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLU3, 103.6, TLD2, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Apr 2024

BDI slumped from 1,901 (19 Apr) to 1,721 (26 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,233 (19 Apr) to 1,252 (26 Apr)

CDFI closed lower from 1,312.77 (19 Apr) to 1,244.05 (26 Apr)

CCFI continued to close higher after last week's rebound, from 1,186.53 (19 Apr) to 1,193.64 (26 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans
• Sugar 
• Soybean Oil
• Feeder Cattle
• Lumber

Neutral

• Corn
• Wheat
• Orange Juice

Up Trend

• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 27 Apr 24

The US market closed higher. While the Dow broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart, the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. The Nasdaq and Russell turned from neutral to a downtrend on the daily charts. 

While Harpex closed higher, CDFI and CCFI closed lower, and BDI slumped.

The dollar index closed lower while consolidating.

Watch out for

• Japan and China short trading week
• Multiple countries are reporting CPI and Manufacturing PMI data
• US Interest Rate Decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,103, 5,338

Potential support around 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,819, 18,542

Potential support around 17,097, 16,374, 15,652, 14,930, 14,207

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Apr, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Apr) 

30 Apr, Tue

• 0930 China Composite PMI (Apr)
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
• 1700 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)

01 May, Wed

• China, Hong Kong, Germany, the UK, and Switzerland are on holiday
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US S&P ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 May, Thu

• China on holiday
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 May, Fri

• China and Japan on holiday
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLD2, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Apr 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,729 (12 Apr) to 1,901 (19 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,230 (12 Apr) to 1,233 (19 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,239.42 (12 Apr) to 1,312.77 (19 Apr)

CCFI rebounded and closed higher from 1,185.13 (12 Apr) to 1,186.53 (19 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans (1)
• Wheat
• Sugar 
• Soybean Oil
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Orange Juice

Up Trend

• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 20 Apr 24

The US market closed lower, except the Dow edged higher.
While the Dow turned to a downtrend, the Nasdaq and Russell turned from an uptrend to neutral. The Nasdaq broke consolidation support.

Harpex, BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Multiple countries are reporting Manufacturing PMI and services PMI
• US GDP
• China and Japan Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,103, 5,338

Potential support around 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,097, 17,819, 18,542

Potential support around 16,374, 15,652, 14,930, 14,207

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Apr, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

23 Apr, Tue

• 1530 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
• 1530 German HCOB Services PMI (Apr) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Apr) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI  
• 2000 US Building Permits
• 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Mar)

24 Apr, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q1)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Apr, Thu

• Australia and New Zealand on holiday
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)

26 Apr, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference 
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Personal Income (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)

Dollar Index broke out

The dollar index broke out of consolidation, rallied and closed higher.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLD2, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Apr 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,628 (05 Apr) to 1,729 (12 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,229 (05 Apr) to 1,230 (12 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,206.7 (03 Apr) to 1,239.42 (12 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,191.37 (03 Apr) to 1,185.13 (12 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans 
• Wheat
• Sugar 
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 13 Apr 24

The US market broke the previous week's low and closed lower, except the Nasdaq closed lower with an inside day.
The Nasdaq is consolidating.

While BDI and CDFI rebounded to close higher, Harpex continued to close higher, and CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke out of consolidation, rallied and closed higher.

Watch out for

• Multiple countries are reporting Retail Sales and CPI data
• China GDP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Apr, Mon

• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

16 Apr, Tue

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 1000 China Industrial Production YoY (Mar)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Apr)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Mar) 
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada CPI (YoY) (Mar)

17 Apr, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Apr, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)

19 Apr, Fri

• 0730 Japan National CPI (MoM)
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (MoM)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart. It tested TLD2 support and closed above it.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLD2, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Apr 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,821 (28 Mar) to 1,628 (05 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,220 (29 Mar) to 1,229 (05 Apr)

CDFI closed lower from 1,252.27 (29 Mar) to 1,206.7 (03 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,208.42 (29 Mar) to 1,191.37 (03 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans 
• Wheat

Neutral

• Sugar

Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 06 Apr 24

The US market broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.
The Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While Harpex continued to close higher, BDI, CCFI, and CDFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart.
It tested TLD2 support and closed above it.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions by New Zealand, Canada and Europe
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Apr, Mon

• No important data

09 Apr, Tue

• No important data

10 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Apr)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference

12 Apr, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)