Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6, 117.5
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 26 Nov 22

The US market closed higher. Dow outperformed and closed at six month high.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell and Australia RBA Gov Lowe
• US NFP and unemployment data

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Nov, Mon

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

29 Nov, Tue

• 2100 German CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

30 Nov, Wed

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Dec, Thu

• 0230 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• 1500 German Retail Sales (Oct)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2230 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

02 Dec, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1000 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Nov)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at  109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6, 117.5
Support at 106.7, TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 Nov 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,355 (11 Nov) to 1,189 (18 Nov)

Harpex closed lower from 1,384 (11 Nov) to 1,378 (18 Nov)

CDFI closed lower from 1,116.7 (11 Nov) to 1,049.72 (18 Nov)

CCFI closed lower from 1,729.92 (11 Nov) to 1,651.26 (18 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Soybeans
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton

Neutral

• Wheat (1)
• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 19 Nov 2022

The US market closed broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.

Watch out for

• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Short trading week in the US

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• S&P

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around  4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Nov, Mon

• 0930 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  

22 Nov, Tue

• 1500 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

23 Nov, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 0600 Australia Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2100 US Building Permits
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Nov, Thu

• US holiday
• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)

25 Nov, Fri

• US holiday (US market close early)
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales YoY (Q3)
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Dollar Index broke down

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6, 117.5
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

Dollar Index Long-Term Trend Resistance

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 12 Nov 22

The US market closed higher. Dow and Russell's daily trend improved to Neutral.

BDI closed higher from 1,323 (04 Nov) to 1,355 (11 Nov)
Harpex closed higher from 1,387 (04 Nov) to 1,384 (11 Nov)
CDFI closed higher from 1,096.59 (04 Nov) to 1,116.7 (11 Nov)
CCFI closed lower from 1,790.86 (04 Nov) to 1,729.92 (11 Nov)

The Dollar Index broke consolidation support and slumped.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• US and UK retail sales data
• Japan GDP data
• China Industrial Production data

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Nov, Mon

• No important data

15 Nov, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Oct)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Oct)

16 Nov, Wed

• 1500 UK Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Nov, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Oct)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2030 UK Autumn Forecast Statement
• 2130 US Building Permits (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

18 Nov, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Oct)

The Dollar Index continues to consolidate

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close with a small +roc (closing price > opening price).
Resistance at TLD1, 112.6, 117.5, 120.18
Support at TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Nov 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,534 (28 Oct) to 1,323 (04 Nov)

Harpex closed lower from 1,405 (28 Oct) to 1,387 (04 Nov)

CDFI closed lower from 1,161.2 (28 Oct) to 1,096.59 (04 Nov)

CCFI closed lower from 1,862.25 (28 Oct) to 1,790.86 (04 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Copper
• Palladium (1)
• Feeder Cattle
• Soybeans
• Rough Rice (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber
• Cotton (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Silver
• Cocoa
• Sugar

Up Trend

• Wheat (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 05 Nov 2022

The US market closed lower.
Dow and Russell broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower. S&P and Nasdaq broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• China and US Inflation data
• US Daylight saving ends on 06 Nov at 2 AM

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Nov, Mon

• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Oct)

08 Nov, Tue

• 0801 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

09 Nov, Wed

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Nov, Thu

• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

11 Nov, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)
• 1500 German CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 2000 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)