Dollar Index rallied

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart, tested 97.3 resistance level and closed slightly below it.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 29 Jan 2022

BDI closed lower, from 1,415 (20 Jan) to 1,302 (27 Jan)

Harpex closed higher, from 3,978 (21 Jan) to 4,109 (28 Jan)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,079.01 (21 Jan) to 1,067.97 (28 Jan)

CCFI closed higher, from 3,555.24 (21 Jan) to 3,565.33 (28 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold

Neutral

• Palladium (1)

Up Trend

• Feeder Cattle
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juiece

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 29 Jan 2022

US market broke pwl (previous week low), recovered part of the losses and closed slightly higher except for Russell closed lower.  On the weekly chart, Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq closed with a +ve roc (closing price > opening price)

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index rallied and tested the 97.3 resistance level.

Watch out for

• China long holiday
• Multiple countries Interest rate decisions
• US NFP and the unemployment rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 Jan, Mon

• China Holiday, Hong Kong and Singapore close early
• 1800 Europe GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) 
• 2100 German Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) 

01 Feb, Tue

• China, Hong Kong, and Singapore Holiday
• 0600 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Jan)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)

02 Feb, Wed

• China, Hong Kong, and Singapore Holiday
• 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0930 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan) 
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Feb, Thu

• China and Hong Kong Holiday
• 0830 Australia Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 1700 Europe Composite PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Europe Services PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Jan)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2000 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

04 Feb, Fri

• China Holiday
• 0830 Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
• 1730 UK Construction PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales (Dec)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Jan)

Dollar Index closed with an inside day

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 22 Jan 2022

BDI closed lower, from 1,764 (14 Jan) to 1,415 (20 Jan) 

Harpex closed higher, from 3,865 (14 Jan)to 3,978 (21 Jan)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,167.02 (14 Jan) to 1,079.01 (21 Jan)

CCFI closed higher, from 3,489.94 (14 Jan) to 3,555.24 (21 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gold

Up Trend

• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 22 Jan 2022

US market closed lower.
Dow and S&P 50 SMA started to turn down on the daily chart.
Dow was consolidating while Russell broke down from the consolidating support level.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions from US and Canada

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Jan, Mon

• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI  
• 1700 UK Manufacturing PMI 
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI 

25 Jan, Tue

• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

26 Jan, Wed

• Australia Holiday
• 2130 US Goods Trade Balance (Dec) 
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Dec)
• 2300 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report   
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference  
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision

27 Jan, Thu

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0300 US FOMC Statement  
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1500 German GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (Dec)

28 Jan, Fri

• 1700 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)

Dollar Index broke support and recovered

The dollar index broke multiple support levels (consolidation support level, 50 MA on the daily chart,  95.0 level and TLU1, Trend line support level) and recovered to close above 95.0 level and TLU1.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 15 Jan 2022

BDI closed lower, from 2,289 (06 Jan) to 1,764 (14 Jan)

Harpex closed higher, from 3,817 (07 Jan) to 3,865 (14 Jan)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,300.74 (07 Jan) to 1,167.02 (14 Jan)

CCFI closed higher, from 3,432.79 (07 Jan) to 3,489.94 (14 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 15 Jan 2022

US market closed lower.
Russell closed around the consolidating support level.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index broke multiple support levels and recovered some losses.

Watch out for

• Inflation Rate, Interest Rate Decision from multiple countries
• China GDP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 Jan, Mon

• US Holiday
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)

18 Jan, Tue

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

19 Jan, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2215 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

20 Jan, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2030 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec)

21 Jan, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and reversed to close lower with a small roc.  The dollar index is testing the 50 MA on the daily chart.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 08 Jan 2022

BDI closed at 2,289 (06 Jan)

Harpex closed at 3,817 (07 Jan)

CDFI closed at 1,300.74 (07 Jan)

CCFI closed at 3,432.79 (07 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa 
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gold

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 08 Jan 2022

US market closed lower.
S&P and Russell closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.  Nasdaq broke hlf (high low formation) on the weekly chart.

The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• Speech by Fed Chair Powell and ECB De Guindos
• China Inflation Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 Jan, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Nov)

11 Jan, Tue

• 0830 Australia Balance of Trade (Nov)
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (Nov)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Speech

12 Jan, Wed

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

13 Jan, Thu

• 1830 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

14 Jan, Fri

• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (Nov)
• 1500 UK Goods Trade Balance (Nov)
• 1700 German Full Year GDP Growth (2021)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales
• 2130 US Retail Sales
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)