Dollar Index closed with an outside day

The dollar index closed with an outside day on the weekly chart. 
It tested 93.3 support, rebounded, broke out and closed above 94.0 resistance.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 30 Oct 2021

BDI closed lower from 4,410 (21 Oct)  to 3,519 (28 Oct)

No change in Harpex, 3,998.80 (22 Oct)

CDFI closed lower from 1,894.87 (22 Oct) to 1,689.66 (29 Oct)

CCFI closed lower from 3,315.27 (22 Oct) to 3,277.71 (29 Oct)

COT     
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Gold

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 30 Oct 2021

US market closed higher.  Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq closed at a historic high.  Russell consolidating.

CCFI, BDI and CDFI closed lower while no change in Harpex.

The dollar index broke out and closed above 94.0 resistance with an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• US FOMC Statement and US NFP.
• Manufacturing PMI, Employment, and Monetary Policy Statement from multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

01 Nov, Mon

• 0600 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 2145 US Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

02 Nov, Tue

• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1700 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI

03 Nov, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI
• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Oct)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

04 Nov, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales
• 0830 Australia Balance of Trade
• 1655 Germany Markit Services PMI
• 1700 Europe Germany Markit Services PMI
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Balance of Trade
• 2030 Canada Balance of Trade

05 Nov, Fri

• 1530 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Oct)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Oct)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke out, failed to hold and ended below 94.0 resistance level.
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Oct 2021

BDI closed lower from 4,854 (15 Oct) to 4,410 (21 Oct) 

Harpex closed higher from 3,995.82 (08 Oct) to 3,998.80 (15 Oct)

CDFI closed lower from 2,030.41 (15 Oct) to 1,894.87 (22 Oct)

CCFI closed higher from 3,300.34 (15 Oct) to 3,315.27 (22 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gold
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 23 Oct 2021

US market closed higher.  Dow and S&P closed at a historic high.  Russell consolidating.

Harpex and CCFI closed higher while BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed below 94.0 resistance.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by Canada, Japan, and Europe
• CPI, GDP, and Retail Sales data from multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

25 Oct, Mon

• New Zealand holiday
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)

26 Oct, Tue

• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)

27 Oct, Wed

• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1400 German GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference

28 Oct, Thu

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Oct)
• 1945 Europe German Unemployment Change (Oct)
• 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference 
• 2200 US ECB Press Conference

29 Oct, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Oct)
• 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct) 
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug) 
• 2200 US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)

Dollar Index broke 94.0 support

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart.  It failed to sustain and closed below 94.0 support level.
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Oct 2021

BDI closed lower from 5,526 (08 Oct) to 4,854 (15 Oct)

Harpex closed higher from 3,989.86 (01 Oct) to 3,995.82 (08 Oct)

CDFI closed lower from 2,219.79 (08 Oct) to 2,030.41 (15 Oct)

CCFI closed higher from 3,271.7 (08 Oct) to 3,300.34 (15 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Platinum

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Heating Oil
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 16 Oct 2021

US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher. 

Harpex and CCFI closed higher while BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke 94.0 support.

Watch out for

• China various data on Monday
• CPI, Manufacturing PMI, Retail Sales data from multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Oct, Mon

• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate
• 1000 China GDP (YoY)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

19 Oct, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2005 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2030 US Building Permits (Sep)

20 Oct, Wed

• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Oct, Thu

• 2030 Canada ADP Employment Change
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)

22 Oct, Fri

• 0701 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
• 1600 Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI 
• 1630 UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 21450 US Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 21450 US Markit Services PMI

Dollar Index closed with an inside day

The dollar index closed slightly lower with a -roc (close price < open price) inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Oct 2021

BDI closed higher from 5,202 (01 Oct) to 5,526 (08 Oct)

Harpex closed higher from 3,980.91 (24 Sep) to 3,989.86 (01 Oct)

CDFI closed higher from 2,208.47 (30 Sep) to 2,219.79 (08 Oct)

CCFI closed higher from 3,220.55 (30 Sep) to 3,271.7 (08 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Platinum
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Heating Oil
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 09 Oct 2021

US market closed higher except Russell closed lower. US market consolidating.

Harpex, BDI, CCFI, and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed with an inside day.

Watch out for

• US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales data
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Oct, Mon

• Japan and Canada Holiday
• No important data

12 Oct, Tue

• 0800 Australia HIA New Home Sales
• 0830 Australia NAB Business Confidence
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate
• 1400 UK Employment Change
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

13 Oct, Wed

• 1400 UK GDP
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Goods Trade Balance
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

14 Oct, Thu

• Hong Kong Holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Sep)
• 0930 China Inflation Rate
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Oct, Fri

• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Dollar Index broke 94 resistance level

The dollar index tested and closed above 93.3 and 94.0 resistance levels.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, TLD1, TLD2, 88.88, 86.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 02 Oct 2021

BDI closed higher from 4,644 (23 Sep) to 5,202 (01 Oct)

Harpex closed higher from 3,928.73 (17 Sep) to 3,980.91 (24 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 2,029.19 (24 Sep) to 2,208.47 (30 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 3,235.26 (24 Sep) to 3,220.55 (30 Sep)

COT 
Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Platinum
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Heating Oil
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 02 Oct 2021

US market closed lower.  S&P and Nasdaq broke pwl (previous week low), recovered some of the losses before closing. Russell continues to consolidate.

Harpex, BDI, and CDFI closed higher while CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke the 94.0 resistance level.

Watch out for

• China long holiday
• Australia and New Zealand interest rate decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

04 Oct, Mon

• China Holiday
• No important data

05 Oct, Tue

• China Holiday
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Sep)
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Aug)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

06 Oct, Wed

• China Holiday
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales (Aug)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

07 Oct, Thu

• China Holiday
• 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

08 Oct, Fri

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Sep)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Sep)