Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher after breaking consolidation last week.
Resistance at TLU3, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 106.7 TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 28 Aug 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,279 (19 Aug) to 1,082 (26 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 4,288(19 Aug) to 4,163 (26 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,182.1 (19 Aug) to 1,152.97 (26 Aug)

CCFI closed lower from 2,993.67 (19 Aug) to 2,904.00 (26 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 27 Aug 2022

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and slumped.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed lower for another week.

The dollar index closed higher.

Watch out for

• CPI and Manufacturing PMI data from multiple countries
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• Nobe

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Aug, Mon

• UK holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

30 Aug, Tue

• 2000 German Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) 
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)

31 Aug, Wed

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Sep, Thu

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

02 Sep, Fri

• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Aug)

Dollar Index broke consolidation

The dollar index broke consolidation resistance and closed higher.
Resistance at TLU3, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 106.7 TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Aug 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,477 (12 Aug) to 1,279 (19 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 4,318 (12 Aug) to 4,288(19 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,230.63 (12 Aug) to 1,182.1 (19 Aug)

CCFI closed lower from 3,073.28 (12 Aug) to 2,993.67 (19 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 20 Aug 2022

US market broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI continue to close lower.

The dollar index broke consolidation resistance and closed higher.

Watch out for

• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• Manufacturing PMI  from multiple countries
• US GDP
• Fed Chair Powell Speech 
• 3-Days Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• Bobe

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,762, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Aug, Mon

• 2115 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

23 Aug, Tue

• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI
• 1630 UK Services PMI
• 2145 US Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jul)

24 Aug, Wed

• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Aug, Thu

• 0645 New Zealand Retail Sales (Q2)
• 0800 US Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug)
• 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

26 Aug, Fri

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Personal Spending MoM (Jul)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Jul) 
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 

27 Aug, Sat

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index broke down and recovered to consolidating range.
Resistance at 106.7, TLD1, 109.7, 112.6
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Aug 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,560 (05 Aug) to 1,477 (12 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 4,366 (05 Aug) to 4,318 (12 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,253.2 (05 Aug) to 1,230.63 (12 Aug)

CCFI closed lower from 3,163.45 (05 Aug) to 3,073.28 (12 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar (1)
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 13 Aug 2022

US market continues to close higher.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke down and recovered to consolidating range.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries
• New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• S&P (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• Dow

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Aug, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)  

16 Aug, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jul)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)

17 Aug, Wed

• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (Jul)
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe Employment Change YoY (Q2)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Aug, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jul)

19 Aug, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (Jun)

Dollar Index recovered

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher. 
Resistance at 106.7, TLD1, 109.7, 112.6
Support at 103.6, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Aug 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,895 (29 Jul) to 1,560 (05 Aug)

Harpex closed lower from 4,449 (29 Jul) to 4,366 (05 Aug)

CDFI closed lower from 1,404.65 (29 Jul) to 1,253.20 (05 Aug)

CCFI closed lower from 3,188.61 (29 Jul) to 3,163.45 (05 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar (1)
• Wheat
• Soybean Oil
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 06 Aug 2022

US market closed higher around another resistance range, except Dow closed lower.  US market trend on the daily chart has turned from Neutral to UT (up trend).

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.

There aren't many critical data released this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P (1)
• Russell (1)

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,762, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Aug, Mon

• No important data

09 Aug, Tue

• No important data

10 Aug, Wed

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
• 2030 US Core CPI (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Aug, Thu

• Japan Holiday
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jul)

12 Aug, Fri

• 1400 UK GDP (Q2)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)