Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index tested and closed above the 96.3 resistance level.  The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 Dec 2021

BDI slumped from 3,272 (09 Dec) to 2,379 (17 Dec)

Harpex remained the same at 3,757 (17 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 1,525.6 (10 Dec) to 1,294.45 (17 Dec)

CCFI closed higher from 3,238.35 (10 Dec) to 3,245.22 (17 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa 
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 18 Dec 2021

US market closed lower.
Dow and S&P broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.  The third week that Nasdaq is consolidating.  Russell broke hif (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and recovered some losses closing at the consolidating support range.

CCFI closed higher, Harpex remained the same, while CDFI and BDI closed lower.

The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• China loan prime rate
• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes, Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• Retail Sales and GDP data from multiple countries.

I will be taking a break, and this update will be the last for the Year 2021. 
The next update will resume on 08 Jan 2022.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Dec, Mon

• 0830 Australia Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

21 Dec, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 
• 1500 German GfK Consumer Confidence
• 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

22 Dec, Wed

• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 1500 UK GDP (Q3)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 Dec, Thu

• 0801 UK GfK Consumer Confidence
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

24 Dec, Fri

• Some markets will close for the day, while some close early.
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)

Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index closed with an inside day. 
The dollar index tested the 96.3 resistance level and failed to overcome it.  The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 Dec 2021

BDI continues to close higher from 3,171 (03 Dec) to 3,272 (09 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 3,751 (03 Dec) to 3,757 (10 Dec)

CDFI closed higher from 1,512.39(03 Dec) to 1,525.6 (10 Dec)

CCFI closed higher from 3,199.03 (03 Dec) to 3,238.35  (10 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa 
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 11 Dec 2021

US market closed higher.
Dow broke pwh (previous week high), S&P broke lhf (lower high formation), Nasdaq broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered while Russell broke pwh and retreated to trim gain.

Harpex, BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index is directionless.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by multiple countries (US, Switzerland, UK, Europe, Japan)
• Manufacturing PMI and Retail sales data by multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Dec, Mon

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4)

14 Dec, Tue

• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Nov)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov)

15 Dec, Wed

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0300 US FOMC Statement  
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0730 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade
• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
• 1700 Europe Composite PMI
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI  
• 1700 Europe Services PMI  
• 1730 UK Composite PMI
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1730 UK Services PMI  
• 1730 Switzerland SNB Press Conference  
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2000 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes  
• 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 Canada ADP Employment Change
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference 
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI 

17 Dec, Fri

• 1030 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1030 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision  
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)

Dollar Index closed slightly higher

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation), closed slightly higher with a -roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 04 Dec 2021

BDI continues to close higher, from 2,767 (26 Nov) to 3,171 (03 Dec)

Harpex closed higher from 3,745 (26 Nov) to 3,751 (03 Dec)

CDFI closed higher from 1,407.02 (26 Nov) to 1,512.39(03 Dec)

CCFI closed lower from 3,199.98 (26 Nov) to 3,199.03 (03 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa (1)
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Gasoline (1)

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 04 Dec 2021

US market continues to close lower. 
Russell closed around the recent consolidation support level. 

Harpex, BDI and CDFI closed higher while CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed slightly higher.

Watch out for

• Australia and Canada Interest Rate Decision 
• Speech by Europe ECB De Guindos and Australia RBA Gov Lowe
• China and US Inflation Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 Dec, Mon

• No important data

07 Dec, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 1800 Europe Employment Change (Q3)
• 2130 Canada Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov)

08 Dec, Wed

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1630 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech 
• 1930 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech 
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference 
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Dec, Thu

• 0600 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 1500 German Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

10 Dec, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)