Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the higher low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower. It tested TLD1 support and recovered some losses before closing.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at TLD1, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Dec 2023

BDI closed lower from 2,483 (08 Dec) to 2,348 (15 Dec)

Harpex closed lower from 826 (08 Dec) to 810 (15 Dec)

CDFI rebounded from 1,278.94 (08 Dec) to 1,326.22 (15 Dec)

CCFI closed higher from 858.4 (08 Dec) to 869.34 (15 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Sugar
• Palladium (1)
• Crude
• Cotton
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Soybeans (1)
• Orange Juice
• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 16 Dec 23

The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke consolidation resistance and closed higher. Russell closed higher while testing long-term consolidation resistance.

While BDI and Harpe closed lower, CDFI and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index broke the higher low formation on the weekly chart, tested TLD1 support, and recovered some losses before closing lower.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decision by Japan
• CPI data by multiple countries
• US GDP

I will take a break; this update will be the last for 2023. 
The next update will resume on 07 Jan 2024.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,632, 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 16,374, 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Dec, Mon

• No important data

19 Dec, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)  
• 2130 Canada Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)

20 Dec, Wed

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Dec, Thu

• 2130 Canada Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

22 Dec, Fri

• The UK closes early for Christmas
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Nov)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart and overcame the 103.6 resistance.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, 102.3, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Dec 2023

BDI slumped from 3,192 (01 Dec) to 2,483 (08 Dec)

Harpex closed lower from 833 (01 Dec) to 826 (08 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 1,385.95 (01 Dec) to 1,278.94 (08 Dec)

CCFI edged higher from 857.72 (01 Dec) to 858.4 (08 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Palladium (1)
• Crude
• Cotton
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Wheat
• Orange Juice
• Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 09 Dec 23

The US market closed higher. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are consolidating.

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed lower, CCFI edged higher.

The dollar index broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart and overcame the 103.6 resistance.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by the US, Switzerland, UK and Europe.
• US CPI
• Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Dec, Mon

• No important data

12 Dec, Tue

• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 1500 UK Employment Change (Sep)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Nov)

13 Dec, Wed

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

14 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0300 US FOMC Statement
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference

15 Dec, Fri

• 1000 China Industrial Production YoY (Nov)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 1630 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• 1630 German HCOB Services PMI (Dec) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (Dec) 
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 2130 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)  

Dollar Index failed 103.6 resistance

The dollar index tested 103.6 resistance, failed to overcome, and closed lower.
Resistance at 103.6, 106.7, TLU2, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 02 Dec 2023

BDI accelerated higher, from 2,102 (24 Nov) to 3,192 (01 Dec)

Harpex edged higher, from 832 (24 Nov) to 833 (01 Dec)

CDFI in sync with BDI to accelerate higher, from 1,175.71 (24 Nov) to 1,385.95 (01 Dec)

CCFI closed lower from 876.74 (24 Nov) to 857.72 (01 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Corn (1)
• Soybeans
• Soybean Oil
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline
• Crude
• Cotton
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Copper

Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 02 Dec 23

The US market closed higher. While the S&P is testing the year high, the Nasdaq is consolidating. Russell broke the lower high formation on the weekly chart.

While BDI and CDFI are accelerating higher, Harpex edged higher, whereas CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested 103.6 resistance, failed to overcome, and closed lower.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decision by Australia and Canada
• Services PMI by multiple countries
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 35,495, 33,365, 31,236, 29,106

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

04 Dec, Mon

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

05 Dec, Tue

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (Nov)
• 2230 Canada S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)

06 Dec, Wed

• 0830 Austrlia GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI s.a (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

07 Dec, Thu

• 1800 Europe GDP (YoY)
• 1800 Europe Employment Change YoY (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

08 Dec, Fri

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1500 German CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 

09 Dec, Sat

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)