Wednesday, October 29, 2014

BDI hit 6 months high

BDI is accelerating after hitting a low 930 on 16 Oct 2014.  Most grains also trading higher.
Possible of rallies with the pickup, do watch out


Sunday, October 26, 2014

US Dollar Index hover at resistance

US Dollar Index recovered to weekly resistance, as it formed a inside days this week, my strategy will be FIFO till clearer sign.


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 

 Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 25 Oct 14

BDI bounced up from 944 (17 Oct) to 1192 (24 Oct).

Summary
Most grains had gained between 1-5% this week except for Rough Rice.  With COT accelerating above 1000 level, I will keep a close watch on commodities too.

Trade I am in are

  • Soybean Meal (Entry on 21 Oct)

Closed Trade

  • Wheat (Entry on 21 Oct, closed on 24 Oct)
  • Soybean Meal (Entry on 21 Oct, Partial closed on 24 Oct)
  • Corn (Entry on 21 Oct, closed on 23 Oct)
  • Oats (Entry on 21 Oct, closed on 24 Oct)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

  • Natural Gas (DT)
  • Rough Rice, Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Soybean Meal (DT)
  • Palladium, Platinum, Silver, Copper (DT)
Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
 

Down Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Soybean Oil
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Natural Gas (1) (Neutral to DT)
  • Heating Oil
  • Copper
  • Platinum
  • Palladium
  • Silver (1)
  • Copper
  • Lumber (Neutral to DT)

Neutral

  • Orange Juice (1)

Up Trend

  • None
Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






 

Indices Performance Chart - 25 Oct 14

Indices Summary
US and Europe markets rally more than 2% this week while Asia rally more than 1% except for China A50, decline by more than 1%


Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Neutral

  • Dow (1) (3rd week)
  • Nasdaq (3rd week)
  • S&P (1st week)

DT

  • Russell (decreased for 2nd week)

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



US Indices broke support last week but this week rallied above support (broke pwh previous week high, trend support channel & 50 SMA). Except for Russell still below the support. With COT showing sign of picking up and DOW cot is at the extreme, I will enter a trade on pull back to build up mid-term position again.




 
 

Sunday, October 19, 2014

US Dollar Index hover at previous resistance

US Dollar Index pulled back and hover around previous weekly resistance.  I will consider FIFO (Fast In Fast Out) trade till clearer sign.






USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 



Weekly chart with 50 SMA


 

Commodities Update - 18 Oct 14

BDI declined again this week to 944 (17 Oct) from 963 (10 Oct).

Summary
Most commodities remained weak this week but grains seem to have hit a bottom bottom
and trade higher, worth to take a look




Trade I am in are

  •     None

Closed Trade

  •     Coffee Arabica (Entry on 29 Sep, closed on 17 Oct)
  •     Cotton (Entry on 10 Oct, SL triggered on 15 Oct)
  •     Rough Rice (Entry on 13 Oct, Closed on 15 Oct with small losses)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

  •     Natural Gas (UT)
  •     Rough Rice, Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Soybean Meal (DT, going small)
  •     Palladium, Platinum (DT)


Those in DT will wait for 2ET

Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

  • Cocoa (Neutral to DT)
  • Soybeans (1)
  • Soybean Meal
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Heating Oil
  • Copper
  • Platinum
  • Palladium
  • Silver (1)
  • Gold
  • Copper


Neutral

  • Orange Juice (1)
  • Natural Gas (1) (UT to Neutral)
  • Lumber (UT to Neutral)

Up Trend
 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Indices Performance Chart - 18 Oct 14

Most markets continue to trade lower (between 0.5% to 2%) except ASX (Australia) and  Russell rally 3% this week.  Looking forward to end OCt or early Nov for clearer signal whether continue of downtrend or reversal.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Neutral

  • Dow and Nasdaq (2nd week)

DT

  • S&P and Russell (decreased for 1st week)

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 




US Indices broke support (trend support channel or 50 SMA) and recovered around the support level. I will wait for clearer signal for mid term position, will take up FIFO (Fast In Fast Out) trade for time being.




Sunday, October 12, 2014

US Dollar Index pull back

US Dollar Index had hit a monthly resistance and pull back.  In daily chart, LHF was broken on Fri.  In weekly chart, look like Bearish Engulfing, more downside expected.




USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 




Weekly chart with 50 SMA  




Commodities Update - 11 Oct 14

BDI decline further this week to 963 (10 Oct) from 1037 (03 Oct).
Summary
Feeder Cattle hit new high and closed lower on Fri, Coffee and cocoa are trading  higher while Grains and Metals are stable and Energy remained weak.

Trade I am in are

  •     Coffee Arabica (29 Sep, broke LHF)
  •     Cotton (10 Oct, broke LHF, 3ET)

Closed Trade

  •     Sugar (Entry on 03 Oct, closed on 08 Oct)
  •     Feeder Cattle (Entry on 17 Sep, closed on 10 Oct)
  •     Coffee Arabica (Entry on 29 Sep, took partial on 08 Oct)
  •     Cotton (Entry on 01 Oct, Closed on 09 Oct)
  •     Oats (Entry on 06 Oct, Closed on 08 Oct)
  •     Rough Rice (Entry on 06 Oct, Closed on 08 Oct)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

  •     Natural Gas (UT, watching for LHF)
  •     Lumber (UT, watching for LHF)
  •     Rough Rice (DT, watching for LHF,  range bound in weekly chart)
  •     Palladium, Platinum (DT, broke LHF this week, watching for 2ET)


Those in DT will wait for 2ET

Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User


Down Trend

  •  Cocoa (Neutral to DT)   
  •  Sugar
  •  Soybeans (1)
  •  Soybean Meal
  •  Rough Rice (1)
  •  Orange Juice (1)
  •  Gasoline
  •  Heating Oil
  •  Copper (consolidation)
  •  Platinum
  •  Palladium
  •  Silver (1) 
  •  Gold
  •  Copper
  •  Cotton (1)

Neutral
  •   None


Up Trend

  •  Natural Gas (1)
  •  Lumber (Neutral to UT)


Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average









Indices Performance Chart - 11 Oct 14

Markets continue to pull back sharply this week.  US pull back near to 4%, Europe pull back between 3-6% while Asia pull back up to 5%.  I will continue adopt short term trading for Oct. 

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

  •  Nasdaq (1st week)

Neutral

  •  S&P (3nd weeks)
  •  Dow (1st week)

Down Trend

  •  Russell (few weeks)
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  


I will consider to long small on US indices as approaching channel support trend if there is a long signal.  Russell continue to be the weakest among US indices.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

US Dollar Index hit monthly resistance

US Dollar Index had hit a monthly resistance, will it try to test another resistance or due for a healthy pull back?




USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow) 


Weekly chart with 50 SMA  

 

Commodities Update - 04 Oct 14

Despite of stronger USD, Feeder Cattle, Lumber and Coffee are trading higher while others continue to go lower.  Going for short term or intraday trade unless is in UT

Trade I am in are

  •     Sugar (03 Oct, broke LHH)
  •     Feeder Cattle (17 Sep, broke LHF)
  •     Coffee Arabica (29 Sep, broke LHF)
  •     Cotton (01 Oct, broke LHF, 2ET, Consolidation)
Closed Trade
  •     Sugar (Entry on 25 Sep, closed on 1 Oct)
  •     Rough Rice (Entry on 19 Sep, closed on 1 Oct)
  •     Natural Gas (Entry on 23 Sep, closed on 1 Oct)

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

  •     Oats (Neutral, may formed 2ET next week)
  •     Natural Gas (UT, may break LHF next week)
  •     Lumber (waiting for pull back and long when break LHF)
  •     Rough Rice  (DT, may break LHF next week)

Those in DT will wait for 2ET

Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
 

Down Trend
  •  Sugar
  •  Coffee Arabica
  •  Oats
  •  Soybeans (1)
  •  Soybean Meal
  •  Wheat
  •  Rough Rice (1)
  •  Cotton (1)
  •  Orange Juice (1)
  •  Gasoline
  •  Heating Oil
  •  Copper
  •  Platinum
  •  Palladium
  •  Silver (1)
  •  Gold
  •  Copper

Neutral

  •  Oats
  •  Lumber
  •  Cocoa

Up Trend

  •  Feeder Cattle
  •  Natural Gas (1)
Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






 

Indices Performance Chart - 04 Oct 14

Most markets continue to trade lower this week and recover some losses on Fri.
I will adpot short term trading for Oct

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

  •  S&P (2nd weeks)
Down Trend
  •  Russell (few weeks)
DOW and Nasdaq buying interest further decrease this week. 

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Russell (US Small Cap) is the weakness but the COT show increasing buying interest for last few weeks