Dollar Index closed flat

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered, closing flat with a small -roc (close price < open price).
Resistance at 90.6, TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Market 29 May 2021

On the weekly charts, the US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.  US market consolidating.

BDI and CDFI closed lower. Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index closed flat.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI from various countries
• Speech by UK BoE Gov, New Zealand RBNZ Gov, Europe ECB President, and US Fed Chair
• US NFP and unemployment data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 May, Mon

• UK and US holiday
• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2000 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

01 Jun, Tue

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (May)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2300 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

02 Jun, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 Canada Building Permits (MoM)

03 Jun, Thu

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 0930 Australia Trade Balance (MoM)
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (May)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (May)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2330 UK BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings

04 Jun, Fri

• 0000 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 1500 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (May)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales (YoY)
• 1900 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• 1900 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (May)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (May)

Commodities Update 29 May 2021

BDI closed lower from 2,869 (20 May) to 2,596 (27 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,837.48 (14 May) to 1,890.86 (21 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,536.22 (21 May) to 1,462.53 (28 May)

CCFI close higher from 2,216.63 (21 May) to 2,296.36 (28 May)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Natural Gas
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower at a recent support range.
Resistance at 90.6, TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 22 May 2021

BDI closed lower from 2,939 (14 May) to 2,869 (20 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,777.25 (07 May) to 1,837.48 (14 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,536.44 (14 May) to 1,536.22 (21 May)

CCFI close higher from 2,134.37 (14 May) to 2,216.63 (21 May)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Natural Gas
• Gold
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 22 May 2021

US market closed lower except for Nasdaq closed higher.
DOW broke pwl (previous week low), recovered to narrow the losses.
On the weekly chart, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell closed with an inside day

BDI and CDFI closed lower.  Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index closed lower.

Watch out for

• New Zealand Interest Rate
• US GDP
• US Treasury Sec Yellen speech

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 May, Mon

• Germany, Switzerland and Canada Holiday
• 0645 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ)
• 1905 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech

25 May, Tue

• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (May)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)
• 2200 US Consumer Confidence

26 May, Wed

• Singapore holiday
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1100 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference 
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

27 May, Thu

• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2300 US Treasury Sec Yellen speech

28 May, Fri

• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index tested resistance and failed

The dollar index tested 90.6 resistance but failed to hold and closed below the resistance
Resistance at 90.6, TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 15 May 2021

BDI closed lower from 3,212 (06 May) to 2,939 (14 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,707.47 (30 Apr) to 1,777.25 (07 May) 

CDFI closed lower from 1,617.16 (07 May) to 1,536.44 (14 May)

CCFI close higher from 2,074.35 (07 May) to 2,134.37 (14 May)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Gold
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 15 May 2021

US market broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered some of the losses before closing lower.  S&P and Russell consolidating.

BDI and CDFI closed lower.  Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index tested resistance and failed to overcome.

Watch out for

• China Industrial Production and Retail Sales
• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Various countries PMI data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 May, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)

18 May, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Apr)
• 1700 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.
• 2030 US Building Permits (Apr)
• 2200 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech

19 May, Wed

• Hong Kong holiday
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

20 May, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Apr)
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1000 New Zealand Annual Budget Release  
• 2000 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

21 May, Fri

• 0930 Asutralia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (May) 
• 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite 
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (May)  
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 1630 UK Services PMI (May) 
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Apr)

Dollar Index broke support

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke pwh (previous week high), reversed, broke and closed below 90.6 support with an outside day.
Resistance at 90.6, TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3 
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 08 May 2021

BDI closed higher from 3,007 (30 Apr) to 3,212 (06 May)

Harpex closed higher from 1,680.33 (23 Apr) to 1,707.47 (30 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,534.77 (30 Apr) to 1,617.16 (07 May)

CCFI close higher from 1,991.16 (07 May) to 2,074.35 (07 May)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Gold

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 08 May 2021

US market closed higher except Nasdaq closed lower.
Dow and S&P closed at a historic high.  Nasdaq and Russell broke pwl (previous week low) and trimmed some of the losses before closing.

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

Dollar Index broke support

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 May, Mon

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

11 May, Tue

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)
• 2200 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  May, Wed

12 May, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement
• 1400 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar)
• 1700 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech

13 May, Thu

• Switzerland, Singapore holiday
• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Apr)

14 May, Fri

• 0000 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index tested support and rebound

The dollar index tested 90.6 support and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 01 May 2021

BDI closed higher from 2,788 (23 Apr) to 3,007 (30 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,650.51 (16 Apr) to 1,680.33 (23 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,451.3 (23 Apr) to 1,534.77 (30 Apr)

CCFI close higher from 1903.5 (23 Apr) to 1,991.16 (30 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas
• Gold

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 01 May 2021

US market closed lower except S&P edged higher.
On the weekly chart, Dow closed with an inside day.  S&P, Nasdaq and Russell broke pwh (previous week high), reversed to close with a -roc (close price < open price)

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

Dollar Index tested support and rebound.

Watch out for

• Speech from US Fed, New Zealand RBNZ's Governor, UK BoE's Governor
• Interest Rate Decision from various countries
• US Nonfarm Payrolls 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

03 May, Mon

• Japan and UK holiday
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

04 May, Tue

• Japan holiday
• 0220 US Fed's Chair Powell speech
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement 
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance

05 May, Wed

• Japan holiday
• 0645 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0700 New Zealand RBNZ's Governor Orr speech
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

06 May, Thu

• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Apr)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (May)
• 1930 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

07 May, Fri

• 0930 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Apr)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate