Dollar Index continues to close higher

The dollar index tested 100.3 support and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at 102.3, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Apr 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,137 (14 Mar) to 2,307 (22 Apr)

Harpex lower from 4,509 (15 Apr) to 4,449 (22 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,499.5 (15 Apr) to 1,539.56 (22 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 3,128.45 (15 Apr) to 3,109.78  (22 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 23 Apr 2022

US market closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart. The daily trend has turned from neutral to downtrend, except for Russell remained neutral.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while CCFI and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index continues to close higher.

Watch out for

• Inflation Rates from multiple countries
• Japan Interest rate decision
• Speech by ECB Guindos

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell (1)

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

25 Apr, Mon

• Australia and New Zealand holiday.
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)

26 Apr, Tue

• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Mar)

27 Apr, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 Canada ADP Employment Change (Mar)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Mar)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

28 Apr, Thu

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
• 1100 BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1100 BoJ BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1500 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 2000 German Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

29 Apr, Fri

• Japan holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 1700 German CPI (YoY) (Apr)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)

30 Apr, Sat

• 0930 China GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke and closed above the 100.0 resistance level. The dollar index closed with an outside day on the daily chart.
Resistance at 102.3, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Apr 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,055 (07 Apr) to 2,137 (14 Mar)

Harpex lower from 4,550 (08 Apr) to 4,509 (15 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,490.26 (08 Apr) to 1,499.5 (15 Apr)

CCFI closed higher from 3,117.75 (08 Apr) to 3,128.45 (15 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 16 Apr 2022

US market closed lower except for Russell closed higher.

BDI, CDFI, and CCFI recovered to close higher, except Harpex closed lower

The dollar index continues to close higher.

Watch out for

• China data including PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and BoE Gov Bailey

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Dow
• Russell (1)

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Apr, Mon

• Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and most of the Europe markets are closed for the holiday.
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)

19 Apr, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Building Permits (Mar)

20 Apr, Wed

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Apr, Thu

• 0645 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

22 Apr, Fri

• 0100 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks 
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2100 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2230 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Dollar Index broke out

The dollar index broke out and closed above consolidating resistance level.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Apr 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,357 (31 Mar) to 2,055 (07 Apr)

Harpex lower from 4,580 (01 Apr) to 4,550 (08 Apr)

CDFI closed lower from 1,583.97 (01 Apr) to 1,490.26 (08 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 3,204.83 (01 Apr) to 3,117.75 (08 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• Gold
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 09 Apr 2022

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower.

BDI, CDFI, Harpex, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke out from consolidation.

Watch out for

• Inflation Rates from multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions from New Zealand, Canada and Europe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• Russell (1)

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Apr, Mon

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
• 1400 UK Goods Trade Balance (Feb)
• 1400 UK GDP
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)

12 Apr, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Mar)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 2030 US Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)

13 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1400 UK Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)
• 2030 US PPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference

14 Apr, Thu

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Mar)
• 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference

2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)

15 Apr, Fri

• Most of the markets are closed for the holiday.

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart.  The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at  98.7, 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 02 Apr 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,544 (24 Mar) to 2,357 (31 Mar)

Harpex lower from 4,586 (25 Mar) to 4,580 (01 Apr)

CDFI closed lower from 1,666.97 (25 Mar) to 1,583.97 (01 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 3,274.9 (25 Mar) to 3,204.83 (01 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline (1)
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Orange Juice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 02 Apr 2022

US market rallied and trimmed most of the gain before closing higher, except for Dow closed lower. US market short-term trend (10 SMA, Simple Moving Average) has improved from downtrend to neutral.

BDI, CDFI, Harpex, and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• Composite PMI data by multiple countries
• Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Speech by UK BoE Gov Bailey and Europe ECB Guindos

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell (1)

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

04 Apr, Mon

• China Holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1705 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

05 Apr, Tue

• China and Hong Kong Holiday
• 0700 Australia Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1555 German Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
• 1600 Europe Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Mar)
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Balance of Trade (Feb)
• 2200 US Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

06 Apr, Wed

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Mar)
• 1500 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Mar)
• 2200 US Ivey PMI (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

07 Apr, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 Australia Balance of Trade (Feb)
• 1700 Eruope Retail Sales (Feb)
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

08 Apr, Fri

• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Mar)