Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index is still consolidating.
Resistance at TLD1, 112.6, 117.5, 120.18
Support at TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 29 Oct 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,819 (21 Oct) to 1,534 (28 Oct) 

Harpex closed lower from 1,479 (21 Oct) to 1,405 (28 Oct) 

CDFI closed lower from 1,239.86 (21 Oct) to 1,161.2 (28 Oct) 

CCFI closed lower from 1,959.96 (21 Oct) to 1,862.25 (28 Oct) 

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Copper
• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle
• Soybeans
• Cocoa
• Rough Rice (1)
• Coffee
• Lumber
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Platinum

Up Trend

• Wheat (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 29 Oct 2022

The US market closed higher.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by Australia, the US, and the UK.
• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• US NFP
• Europe Daylight saving ends on 30 Oct 22 at 2 AM CET (Central European Time).

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 Oct, Mon

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Oct)
• 1500 German Retail Sales YoY (Sep)
• 1800 Europe Inflation Rate YoY (Oct)
• 1800 Europe GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) 
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)

01 Nov, Tue

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2130 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)

02 Nov, Wed

• 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0600 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference  
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Oct)
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Nov, Thu

• Japan Public Holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Statement 
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0200 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 0830 Australia Balance of Trade (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Oct)
• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Oct)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Oct)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Balance of Trade (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

04 Nov, Fri

• 0830 Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Sep)
• 1730 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Oct)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Oct)

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 112.6, 117.5, 120.18
Support at TLD1, TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 22 Oct 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,838 (14 Oct) to 1,819 (21 Oct) 

Harpex closed lower from 1,503 (14 Oct) to 1,479 (21 Oct) 

CDFI closed lower from 1,257.04 (14 Oct) to 1,239.86 (21 Oct) 

CCFI closed lower from 2,026.26 (14 Oct) to 1,959.96 (21 Oct) 

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Copper
• Platinum
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Rough Rice
• Coffee
• Lumber
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Cocoa

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 22 Oct 2022

The US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• GDP and Manufacturing PMI  data by multiple countries
• Canada, Europe and Japan Interest rate decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Oct, Mon

• New Zealand Holiday
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2145 US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

25 Oct, Tue

• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)

26 Oct, Wed

• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Sep) 
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)
• 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report 
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference

27 Oct, Thu

• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference

28 Oct, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1600 German CPI (YoY) (Oct)
• 1600 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.  The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 117.5, 120.18
Support at 112.6, TLD1, TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 15 Oct 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,961 (07 Oct) to 1,838 (14 Oct)

Harpex closed lower from 1,756 (07 Oct) to 1,503 (14 Oct)

CDFI closed higher from 1,222.8 (30 Sep) to 1,257.04 (14 Oct)

CCFI closed lower from 2,328.81 (30 Sep) to 2,026.26 (14 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Soybeans
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Silver
• Copper
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• Platinum
• Palladium
• Wheat

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 15 Oct 2022

The US market closed lower, except for Dow closed higher.

BDI, Harpex and CCFI closed lower, while CDFI closed higher.

The Dollar Index closed higher.

Watch out for

• China National People's Congress
• China GDP
• CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P
• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 Oct, Mon

• 0800 China National People's Congress
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Sep)
• 1600 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 

18 Oct, Tue

• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0800 China National People's Congress
• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)

19 Oct, Wed

• 0800 China National People's Congress
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

20 Oct, Thu

• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (Sep)
• 0800 China National People's Congress
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Sep)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1800 Europe EU Leaders Summit
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)

21 Oct, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)
• 0800 China National People's Congress
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 1800 Europe EU Leaders Summit
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

22 Oct, Sat

• 0800 China National People's Congress

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at 117.5, 120.18
Support at 112.6, TLD1, TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 08 Oct 2022

BDI closed higher from 1,760 (30 Sep) to 1,961 (07 Oct)

Harpex stopped providing data.

Due to China's Golden Week holiday, CDFI stands at 1,222.8 (30 Sep) while CCFI stands at 2,328.81 (30 Sep).

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Soybeans
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Silver
• Copper
• Cocoa
• Sugar
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• Platinum
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 08 Oct 2022

The US market broke lhf (lower high formation), trimmed most of the gain and closed slightly higher on the weekly chart.

BDI closed higher, CCFI and CDFI were not provided due to China's golden week holiday, while Harpex stopped providing data.

The Dollar Index closed higher.

Watch out for

• Speech by UK BoE Gov Bailey and Europe ECB President Lagarde
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 Oct, Mon

• Canada and Japan Holiday
• No important data

11 Oct, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Aug)

12 Oct, Wed

• 0235 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 1400 UK GDP
• 1400 UK Goods Trade Balance (Aug)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2130 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

13 Oct, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1400 German CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

14 Oct, Fri

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) 

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.
Resistance at 112.6, 117.5, 120.18
Support at TLD1, TLU3, 109.7, 106.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 01 Oct 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,816 (23 Sep) to 1,760 (30 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 2,576 (23 Sep) to 1,905 (30 Sep)

CDFI closed lower from 1,271.98 (23 Sep) to 1,222.8 (30 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 2,475.97 (23 Sep) to 2,328.81 (30 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold (1)
• Sugar
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline (1)

Neutral

• Silver
• Cocoa
• Soybeans
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Platinum (1)
• Copper
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 01 Oct2022

US market closed lower. S&P broke and closed below Jun's low.

Harpex, CCFI, BDI, and CDFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index closed lower.

Watch out for

• China golden week
• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• Australia and New Zealand interest rate decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Nasdaq
• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 29,106, 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

03 Oct, Mon

• China Holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

04 Oct, Tue

• China and Hong Kong Holiday
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

05 Oct, Wed

• China Holiday
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

06 Oct, Thu

• China Holiday
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales (Aug)
• 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

07 Oct, Fri

• China Holiday
• 1400 German Retail Sales (Aug)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Sep)

08 Oct, Sat

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Sep)