Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.66, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 Jun 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,578 (16 Jun) to 2,331 (24 Jun) 

Harpex remained at 4,461 (24 Jun) 

CDFI closed lower from 1,715.15 (17 Jun) to 1,632.96 (24 Jun) 

CCFI closed lower from 3,252.5 (17 Jun) to 3,244.78 (24 Jun) 

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Cocoa
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline  (1)
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Orange Juice

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 25 Jun 2022

US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher on the weekly chart, except Russell closed higher with an inside day.

BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed lower except for Harpex remained the same.

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Speech by ECB President Lagarde, ECB Guindos, BoE Gov Bailey and Fed Chair Powell
• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Jun, Mon

• 0800 Europe ECB Forum on Central Banking
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)

28 Jun, Tue

• 0800 Europe ECB Forum on Central Banking
• 1630 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks 
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (May)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

29 Jun, Wed

• 0800 Europe ECB Forum on Central Banking
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1545 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2100 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 
• 2100 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
• 2100 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

30 Jun, Thu

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Jun)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Change (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 2130 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speech 

01 Jul, Fri

• Hong Kong and Canada holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher with a long-legged doji on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.66, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 Jun 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,320 (10 Jun) to 2,578 (16 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 4,437 (10 Jun) to 4,461 (17 Jun)

CDFI closed higher from 1,673.74 (10 Jun)to 1,715.15 (17 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 3,229.56 (10 Jun) to 3,252.5 (17 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Cocoa
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline  (1)
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 18 Jun 2022

US market continues to slump, break and close below the previous year's low.

BDI, CDFI, CCFI, and Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with a long-legged doji on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,690, 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,579, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150, 8,428

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Jun, Mon

• US Holiday
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate

21 Jun, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes  
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)

22 Jun, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2130 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

23 Jun, Thu

• 0700 Australia Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Jun, Fri

• New Zealand holiday
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (May)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (May)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)

Dollar Index rallied

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and rallied.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.66, TLU2, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 Jun 2022

BDI closed lower from 2,633 (01 Jun) to 2,320 (10 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 4,410 (03 Jun) to 4,437 (10 Jun)

CDFI closed lower from 1,704.82 (02 Jun) to 1,673.74 (10 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 3,186.65 (02 Jun) to 3,229.56 (10 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline  (1)
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 11 Jun 2022

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and slumped.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while CCFI and Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index rallied.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions from multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• S&P
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around  11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Jun, Mon

• Australia Holiday
• 1400 UK GDP

14 Jun, Tue

• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (May)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (May)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (May)

15 Jun, Wed

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (May)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (May)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Jun, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US Fed Press Conference
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (May)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Press Conference  
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

17 Jun, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2045 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  

No update for this week

No update of the blog for this week

Due to work commitments, I will not be updating my blog for this week.

COT for US Indices 

COT for Dollar Index

Download Commodities COT