Saturday, August 30, 2014

US Dollar Index hit resistance



US Dollar Index had hit another resistance level, may pose for some pull back.


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)



Below is a weekly chart with 50 SMA.
GBPUSD closed with +ROC (Closing Price > Opening Price), technical rebound may continue
USDJPY closed with -ROC (Closing Price < Opening Price), watch for direction, there is a LHF or HLF formation
USDCAD seem to have found some support while AUDUSD broke LHF; both show strength.




Commodities Update - 30 Aug 14

BDI continue to go higher to 114 (29 Aug) from 1088 (22 Aug).

Commodities Update
Orange Juice, Feeder Cattle, Coffee and Palladium spike up this week
Most grains commodities had little change for the week.  Advisable short term trade.

I may consider to trade if there is a long signal on the following:

  • Cotton (DT),
  • Natural Gas (DT),
  • Corn (DT),
  • Coffee (UT),
  • Orange Juice (DT)
  • Lumber (UT)
  • Palladium (UT)
  • Wheat (DT)
  • Soybean Meal (DT)

Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
 

Down Trend
  • Sugar
  • Corn (2)
  • Soybeans (1)
  • Soybean Meal (2)
  • Wheat
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Orange Juice (1)(2)
  • Cotton (1)(2)
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas (1)(2)
  • Heating Oil
  • Gasoline
  • Platinum
  • Silver

Neutral

  • Gold

Up Trend
None

Note
(1) COT Index > 90
(2) Price may have hit bottom
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average










Indices Performance Chart - 29 Aug 14

US and Europe markets closed higher while Asia was flat to much lower.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side
participants)
Up Trend

  • Russell (1st week)
  • Nasdaq (few weeks, Buying interest hit yr high)
An increased in number of short positions in DOW causes buying interest had a sharp decreased of 12% while S&P had a slight decreased.




Saturday, August 23, 2014

US Dollar Index broke strong resistance

US Dollar Index had broke the strong resistance level this week.


If you are holding commodities do watch out for you position, it tend to be more volatile unless there is a strong demand

USD Impact on currencies/Gold/Crude


Below is a weekly chart with 50 SMA, some pairs had hit resistance, some pairs had hit support while some pairs seem to have more room to go.

Commodities Update - 23 Aug 14

BDI contine to accelerate from 1015 (15 Aug) to 1088 (22 Aug). 



Commodities Update
Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK), Lumber, Palladium and Copper had traded higher this week.
Grains commodities continue to edge slightly higher.

I will monitor more closely on the following:

  • Cotton (DT, Broke consolidation on daily chart),
  • Natural Gas (DT),
  • Corn (DT),
  • Coffee (UT),
  • Orange Juice (DT)
  • Silver (UT)
  • Lumber (UT)
  • Copper (UT)


Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
 

Down Trend
  • Sugar
  • Rough Rice (COT Index > 90)
  • Orange Juice(COT Index > 90) 
  • Cotton (COT Index > 90, Broke consolidating)**
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas (COT Index > 90)
  • Soybeans (COT Index > 90)
  • Platinum

Neutral

  • None

Up Trend

  • Silver
  • Copper (Had formed 2ET)





Indices Performance Chart - 22 Aug 14

Most markets closed higher this week.  India and Nasdaq continue to climb new high

COT Index
slightly increased on DOW and Nasdaq.  While S&P and Russell COT index edge slightly lower, may due to profit taking.



Sunday, August 17, 2014

Commodities Update - 17 Aug 14

BDI accelerated from 777 (08 Aug) to 1015 (15 Aug).   
Will see commodities moving again.

Commodities Update
Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK), Orange Juice, Palladium had traded higher this week.
While Grains commodities edge slightly higher.

I will monitor more closely on the following:

  • Cotton (DT, Formed Double bottom on weekly chart and still consolidating),
  • Natural Gas (DT),
  • Corn (DT),
  • Coffee (UT, Weekly ROC getting smaller),
  • Platinum (UT),
  • Orange Juice (DT, Broke resistance trend line, 10MA UT) and
  • Silver (UT, waiting to see positive sign on monthly chart)
Add position if there is an entry signal
  • Wheat (DT)
  • Palladium (UT)

Commodities
 

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
 

Down Trend
  • Sugar
  • Corn
  • Rough Rice (COT Index > 90)
  • Orange Juice 
  • Cotton (COT Index > 90, Still consolidating)
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas (COT Index > 90)
  • Soybeans (COT Index > 90)

Neutral
  • Copper

Up Trend
  • Platinum
  • Silver
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Palladium





COT Index (US Indices - 17 Aug 2014)

Indices Summary - 17 Aug 14

Most of Europe continue to trader lower while US edging higher and Asia is mixed this week.  Nasdaq continue to rally this week. 

COT Index continue to build up gradually on S&P and Nasdaq while DOW hit year high.
DOW and S&P looking for short term trade.  Charts look good on Russell and Nasdaq, I may hold longer term for these two.





Took Profit on Russell


I have made 2 entries and took full profits on Russell
EP - Entry Point

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Commodities Update - 10 Aug 14

BDI rose from 751 (01 Aug) to 777 (08 Aug).

Commodities Update
Lumber, Wheat and Natural Gas had traded higher this week.
Most commodities remain weak except for Metals show sign on Fri.  May watch Metals.

I am monitoring the following:

  • Cotton (Double bottom based on weekly chart and consolidating this week), 
  • Natural Gas (monitor for 2ET),
  • Wheat (monitor for 2ET),
  • Coffee (may pull back based on weekly chart),
  • Platinum and
  • Palladium

Commodities

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User


Down Trend*

  • Sugar
  • Corn
  • Wheat
  • Oats (created 1ET)
  • Soybean (created 1ET)
  • Rough Rice      
  • Orange Juice 
  • Cotton
Neutral*
  • Platinum

Up Trend*

  • Lumber
  • Silver
  • Feeder Cattle (HLF 2ET, weakness for time being)
  • Gold
  • Palladium
*Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





 

COT Index (US Indices - 05 Aug 2014)

COT Index continue to build up gradually for Russell and S&P while Nasdaq edge slightly higher while COT Index for DOW spike up closed to year high.  Currently looking for short term trading and may take partial/full profit.

Russell’s turn to breakout?

Russell formed ascending triangle in daily chart, potential of breakout and closed above Diff RL for last 3 days.


Indices Performance Chart - 10 Aug 14

Most of the indices are trading lower this week.  Europe is the worst hit this week.  One of the reason could be due to further sanction on Russia and this could hurt Europe economy.

DOW, Nasdaq and S&P broke pdl (Previous Day Low) for 4 days while Russell holding pretty well for the week.



Monday, August 4, 2014

Silver may break in weeks



Silver have mixed signal.  It formed a descending triangle, possible of breakdown.  But currently is trading above trend line (yellow dotted line), hovering around Diff R/L and Diff S/L supported.  COT index show increase buying interest.  May need weeks to have a clearer signal.  More in favor for a breakout