Dollar Index continues to close higher

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.
Resistance at 102.3, TLD1, 103.6, TLU2, TLU1
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 29 Jul 2023

BDI rebounded from 978 (21 Jul) to 1,110 (28 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 1,121 (21 Jul) to 1,112 (28 Jul)

CDFI rebounded from 921.94 (21 Jul) to 923.57 (28 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 866.08 (21 Jul) to 863.37 (28 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Coffee 
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cocoa
• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 29 Jul 2023

The US market closed higher. Russell is testing year's high.

While BDI and CDFI rebounded, Harpex and CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by Australia and the UK
• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 15,652, 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

31 Jul, Mon

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)

01 Aug, Tue

• Switzerland holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 1555 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)

02 Aug, Wed

• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Aug, Thu

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global US Services PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

04 Aug, Fri

• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jul)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI s.a (Jul)

Dollar Index rebounded

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week's low) and rebounded to close higher.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, 103.6, TLD1, TLU2, TLU1
Support at  98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 22 Jul 2023

BDI closed lower from 1,090 (14 Jul) to 978 (21 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 1,179 (14 Jul) to 1,121 (21 Jul)

CDFI edged lower from 950.5 (14 Jul) to 921.94 (21 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 869.92 (14 Jul) to 866.08 (21 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Coffee 
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cocoa

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 22 Jul 2023

The US market closed higher, except Nasdaq closed lower.

BDI, CDFI, Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week's low) and rebounded to close higher.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decision by US, Europe and Japan
• Manufacturing PMI and CPI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P
• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Jul, Mon

• 1530 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1630 UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI  
• 2145 US S&P GlobalManufacturing PMI 
• 2145 US S&P Global US Services PMI (Jul)   

25 Jul, Tue

• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)

26 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (Q2)
• 2000 US Building Permits
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

27 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)

28 Jul, Fri

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Jun) 
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Jul)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and slumped; it broke 100.3 and 99.8 support levels. The dollar index hit a new low in the year 2023.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3, 103.6, TLD1, TLU2, TLU1
Support at  98.7, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 15 Jul 2023

BDI closed higher from 1,009 (07 Jul) to 1,090 (14 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 1,211 (07 Jul) to 1,179 (14 Jul)

CDFI edged higher from 950.29 (07 Jul) to 950.5 (14 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 880.2 (07 Jul) to 869.92 (14 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Coffee 
• Gold
• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Wheat

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cococa

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 15 Jul 2023

The US market broke consolidating resistance and closed higher, except Dow closed higher but has yet to break consolidation.

While BDI and CDFI closed higher, Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and slumped; it broke 100.3 and 99.8 support levels. The dollar index hit a new low in the year 2023.

Watch out for

• Retail Sales and CPI data by multiple countries
• China GDP and Unemployment Rate Data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 Jul, Mon

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Jun)

18 Jul, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)

19 Jul, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

20 Jul, Thu

• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)

21 Jul, Fri

• 1400 UK Retail Sales YoY (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales YoY (May)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week's high) on the weekly chart and reversed to close lower. The dollar index is consolidating. 
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, TLD1, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA 

Commodities Update 08 Jul 2023

BDI closed lower, from 1,091 (30 Jun) to 1,009 (07 Jul)

Harpex closed lower from 1,227 (30 Jun) to 1,211 (07 Jul)

CDFI closed lower from 980.19 (30 Jun) to 950.29 (07 Jul)

CCFI closed lower from 895.72 (30 Jun) to 880.2 (07 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Coffee 
• Gold
• Palladium (1)
• Platinum
• Silver

Neutral

• Wheat
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Up Trend

• Soybeans

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• US Cococa

Neutral

• Rough Rice

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 08 Jul 2023

The US market closed lower. Dow and S&P closed with an inside day on the weekly chart, while Nasdaq and Russell broke pwh (previous week's high) and reversed to close lower.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week's high) on the weekly chart and reversed to close lower. The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• New Zealand and Canada Interest rate decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

10 Jul, Mon

• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Jun)

11 Jul, Tue

• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 1400 UK Employment Change (Jun)

12 Jul, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1100 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

13 Jul, Thu

• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)

14 Jul, Fri

• New Zealand on holiday
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)  

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week's high) on the weekly chart and reversed to close lower. 
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, TLD1, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 01 Jul 2023

BDI reversed to close lower, from 1,240 (23 Jun) to 1,091 (30 Jun)

Harpex closed lower from 1,235 (23 Jun) to 1,227 (30 Jun)

CDFI closed higher from  976.24 (21 Jun) to 980.19 (30 Jun)

CCFI closed lower from 919.63 (21 Jun) to 895.72 (30 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Soybeans 
• Gold
• Palladium (1)
• Silver
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Wheat
• Cotton

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Rough Rice
• US Cococa

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Markets 01 Jul 2023

The US market broke pwh (previous week's high) and closed higher with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While CDFI closed higher, BDI, Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week's high) on the weekly chart and reversed to close lower.

Watch out for

• US short trading week
• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries.
• Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes and NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Dow

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Nasdaq

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,040

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

03 Jul, Mon

• Canada on holiday
• The US market closed early
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

04 Jul, Tue

• US on holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales MoM (May)
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)

05 Jul, Wed

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jun)

06 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales YoY (May)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US Services PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (May)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI s.a (Jun)
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

07 Jul, Fri

• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jun)