Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at TLD1, TLD2, 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 26 Jun 2021

BDI closed higher 3,218 (18 Jun) to 3,255 (24 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 2,033.69 (11 Jun) to 2,117.19 (18 Jun)

CDFI closed lower this week from 1,576.02 (18 Jun) to 1,562.81 (25 Jun)

CCFI close higher from 2,526.65 (18 Jun) to 2,591.41 (25 Jun)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 26 Jun 2021

US market closed higher.  S&P and Nasdaq closed at a historic high. Dow and Russell are consolidating.

BDI, Harpex, and CCFI closed higher. CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• PMI data from various countries
• Speech by BoE Gov Bailey
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Jun, Mon

• No important data

29 Jun, Tue

• 2000 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

30 Jun, Wed

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1400 UK GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Jul, Thu

• Hong Kong, Canada holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Trade Balance (May)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

02 Jul, Fri

• 0300 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 
• 2030 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance

US Markets 19 Jun 21

The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for inflation and moved forward the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023.

US market closed lower within consolidating range except for Dow closed lower and broke consolidating range

BDI closed higher 2,857 (11 Jun) to 3,218 (18 Jun)
Harpex closed higher from 1,986.58 (04 Jun) to 2,033.69 (11 Jun)
CDFI closed higher from 1,462.54 (11 Jun) to 1,576.02 (18 Jun)
CCFI close higher from  2,442.57 (11 Jun) to 2,526.65 (18 Jun)

The dollar index rallied.

Watch out for 

• Speech from ECB President Lagarde, BoJ's Governor Kuroda
• Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• US GDP

No COT charts due to the federal government closed for the holiday.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Jun, Mon

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2030 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2200 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

22 Jun, Tue

• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)

23 Jun, Wed

• 0200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
• 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite 
• 1630 UK Composite PMI
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1630 UK Services PMI  
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 New Home Sales (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Jun, Thu

• 0200 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• 0800 Europe European Council Meeting
• 1445 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 1900 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

25 Jun, Fri

• 0430 US Bank Stress Test Info
• 0800 Europe European Council Meeting
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index rallied

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart, 90.6 resistance and rallied to close higher.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, TLD2, TLD1, 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

No COT charts due to the federal government closed for the holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Dollar Index tested and closed below the resistance

The dollar index tested 90.6 resistance again and closed below with an inside day.
Resistance at 90.6, TLD1, TLD@, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 Jun 2021

BDI closed higher 2,438 (04 Jun) to 2,857 (11 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 1,940.66 (28 May) to 1,986.58 (04 Jun)

CDFI closed higher from 1,383.71 (04 Jun) to 1,462.54 (11 Jun)

CCFI close higher from 2,373.77 (04 Jun) to 2,442.57 (11 Jun)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Heating Oil

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 12 Jun 2021

US market closed higher except for Dow closed lower.
US market consolidating.

BDI, CDFI, Harpex, and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index tested and closed below the resistance.

Watch out for 

• Speeches from the various central bank
• Interest rate decision from the US, Switzerland and Japan
• FOMC Statement and meeting minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Jun, Mon

• Australia, China, Hong Kong holiday
• 2100 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

15 Jun, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 1400 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (May)
• 2015 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

16 Jun, Wed

• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (May)
• 1500 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
• 2030 US Building Permits (May)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Jun, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Economic Projections  
• 0630 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (May)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
• 1600 Switzerland SNB Press Conference 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

18 Jun, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement  
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  

Dollar Index tested resistance and failed

The dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart, tested 90.6 resistance but failed to hold and closed below 90.6.
Resistance at 90.6, TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Jun 2021

BDI closed lower from 2,596 (27 May) to 2,438 (04 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 1,890.86 (21 May) to 1,940.66 (28 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,462.53 (28 May) to 1,383.71 (04 Jun)

CCFI close higher from 2,296.36 (28 May) to 2,373.77 (04 Jun)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Lumber
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Coffee
• Heating Oil
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 06 Jun 2021

US market closed higher and consolidating.

BDI and CDFI closed lower.  Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index tested resistance and failed to hold.

Watch out for 

• China CPI, 
• China and Europe Interest Rate Decision, 
• US CPI and G7 Meeting

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Jun, Mon

• New Zealand holiday
• No important data

08 Jun, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)

09 Jun, Wed

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2200 Canada BOC Press Conference  
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Jun, Thu

• 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 1945 Europe ECB Deposit Rate Decision
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference  

11 Jun, Fri

• 0800 Europe G7 Meeting
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

12 Jun, Sat

• 0800 Europe G7 Meeting