Monday, December 11, 2017

Dollar Index tested another resistance level

Dollar Index need to continue to stay above TLD3 to continue with the positive momentum.
Resistance at 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at TLD3, 93.0, 92.0, Trend Channel (Blue),TLD2, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA


Commodities Update - 09 Dec 17

BDI continue to surge; from 1,626( 01 Dec) to 1702 (08 Dec)
Harpex edged lower from 477.71 (25 Nov) to 477.41 (02 Dec)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Wheat
  • Coffee
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Soybean Meal
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Copper
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Oats
  • Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 09 Dec 17

US markets (except Nasdaq) created a new historic high but failed to hold and closed with a -roc on the weekly chart.  Nasdaq broke pwl, recovered but still closed with a -roc.

Dollar Index broke lhf on the weekly chart and closed higher.

BDI surged higher again.

14 Dec will be a busy day starting at 0300 US Interest rate decision, SNB (Swiss National Bank) Interest rate decision in the afternoon while ECB Interest Rate Decision in the evening.  Expecting volatile week before most fund close for the year.

I will be taking a short break from this holiday season.  If COT is available, I will post the charts.  Next update will be either on the 7 or 14 Jan 2018 depending on when will the COT data is released.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq

Neutral 

  • None

DT 

  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • Russell

Neutral 

  • None

DT 

  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,520, 24,847
Potential support around 24,157, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,650, 2,593, TLU1, 2,576, 2,552, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,421,  6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 1,649
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, TLU1, 1,497, 1,451, TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

11 Dec, Mon
  • 2300 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) 
12 Dec, Tue
  • 1730 GBP UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec) 
  • 2130 USD US PPI (MoM) (Nov)
13 Dec, Wed 
  • 0300 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Claimant Count Change (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
14 Dec, Thu
  • 0300 USD FOMC Economic Projections     
  • 0300 USD FOMC Statement
  • 0300 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision  
  • 0300 USD FOMC Press Conference 
  • 0830 AUD Australia Employment Change (Nov)       
  • 1000 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
  • 1630 CHF SNB (Swiss National Bank) Interest Rate Decision    
  • 1630 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment   
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
  • 1700 CHF SNB Press Conference      
  • 1730 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2000 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 2000 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes     
  • 2045 EUR Europe Deposit Facility Rate 
  • 2045 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 2130 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2130 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2130 EUR ECB Press Conference 
15  Dec, Fri
  • 0125 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4) 

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Dollar Index closed at minor support

Dollar Index broke lower, recovered and closed at 92.8.  On the weekly chart, it closed with a +roc.
Resistance at 93.0, TLD3, 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at 92.0, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 02 Dec 17

BDI surged from 1,458 (24 Nov) to 1,626( 01 Dec)
Harpex remained flat at 477.71 (25 Nov)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Wheat
  • Coffee
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Copper
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 02 Dec 17

US markets closed mixed.  DOW, S&P and Russell closed at the historic high while Nasdaq closed lower.  On the weekly chart, Nasdaq closed with an outside day.

Dollar Index hovered around mini support 92.8.

BDI surged higher.

US will be reporting NFP and unemployment rate on Fri (08 Dec).

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq

Neutral 
  • None

DT 
  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 
  • Russell

Neutral 
  • None

DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average




Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,593, TLU1, 2,576, 2,552, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,421,  6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 1,649
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, TLU1, 1,497, 1,451, TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
04 Dec, Mon
  • 1730 GBP UK Construction PMI (Nov) 
05 Dec, Tue
  • 0830 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1130 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 1130 AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • 1730 GBP UK Services PMI (Nov)  
  • 2300 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
06 Dec, Wed 
  • 0830 AUD Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 2115 USD US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
  • 2300 CAD Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision  
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
07 Dec, Thu
  • 2300 CAD Canada Ivey PMI (Nov) 
08 Dec, Fri
  • 0750 JPY Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2130 USD US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD US Unemployment Rate (Nov) 

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

COT 21 Nov 17

COT for US Indices

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Russell
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None



COT for Commodities
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Corn (1)
  • Coffee (1)
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


COT for Dollar Index

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Dollar Index broke another support

Dollar Index broke 93.0 support. There is minor support around 92.8 level, may have technical rebound.
Resistance at 93.0, TLD3, 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0, TLD2, 90.6



Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 25 Nov 17

This week COT data release is been delayed to 28 Nov (SGT) due to a Federal holiday.  Earliest available will be on 28 Nov late evening or 30 Nov late evening.

US markets closed on the historic high on a shorter week trading.
On the weekly charts, US markets broke lhf.

Dollar Index broke 93 support.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Fed's Yellen will testify on Wed, 29 Nov.
Various countries will be reporting Manufacturing PMI on 01 Dec.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,567, 24,847
Potential support around 23,435, 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,593, TLU1, 2,576, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,983
Potential support around 6,347, 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,508, TLU1, 1,497, 1,451, TLU2, 1,420


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
27 Nov, Mon
  • 2300 USD New Home Sales (Oct)

28 Nov, Tue
  • 1730 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 2130 USD US Good Trade Balance
  • 2300 USD US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

29 Nov, Wed 
  • 2130 USD US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2300 USD Fed's Yellen testifies
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 

30 Nov, Thu
  • 0900 CNY China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 1700 EUR German Unemployment Change (Nov)
  • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)  

01 Dec, Fri
  • 0945 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
  • 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 1730 GBP UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 2130 CAD Canada Employment Change (Nov) 
  • 2130 CAD Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2300 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 


Sunday, November 19, 2017

Dollar Index broke support

Dollar Index broke TLU9 support.  If unable to recover above TLU9, may see more selling ahead.
Resistance at TLD3, 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0, TLD2, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 18 Nov 17

BDI fell from 1,464 (10 Nov) to 1,371 (17 Nov)
Harpex edge higher from 473.24 (04 Nov) to 473.83 (11 Nov)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Corn (1)
Neutral
  • Coffee (1)
Up Trend
  • Sugar
  • Crude (1)
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 18 Nov 17

US markets closed mixed.  DOW and S&P closed lower.  Russell tested TLU1, rebounded and closed higher.

Dollar Index broke down and closed below TLU9 support.

On Thu, US and Japan markets will be closed for the holiday and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 0200 Hrs.  US markets will be closed early on Fri.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq

Neutral
  • None

DT
  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Dow
  • Russell

Neutral
  • None

DT
  • None


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,435, 2,3567, 24,847
Potential support around 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,593, 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, 2,552, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 1,497, 1,508, 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451, TLU1, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
20 Nov, Mon
  • 2200 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
21 Nov, Tue
  • 0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 2200 USD US Existing Home Sales (Oct)
22 Nov, Wed 
  • 0700 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks   
  • 2130 USD US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
23 Nov, Thu
  • US and Japan holiday
  • 0200 USD US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)        
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  
  • 1730 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2030 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 2130 CAD Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)  
24 Nov, Fri
  • US close early - The Day After Thanksgiving
  • 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) 

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

COT 07 Nov 17

COT for US Indices

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


COT for Commodities
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • Corn (1)
  • Coffee (1)
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cocoa
  • Sugar
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar Index continues directionless for the second week.
Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8
Support at 94.0, TLD3, TLU9, 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0



Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 11 Nov 17

This week COT data release is been delayed to 14 Nov (SGT) due to a Federal holiday.  Earliest available will be on 14 Nov late evening or 15 Nov morning.

US markets closed mixed.  
On the weekly chart, 
- Dow closed with a -roc outside day
- S&P broke higher but closed with a +roc doji. 
- Nasdaq broke higher but closed with -roc.
- Russell broke down from consolidation, tested TLU1 and rebounded.  If TLU1 unable next strong support will be around 1,451.

BDI and Harpex continue to go lower. 
BDI lower from 1,476 (03 Nov) to 1,464 (10 Nov)
Harpex lower from 473.83 (28 Oct) to 473.24 (04 Nov)
This is a norm when coming to year end.

Dollar Index directionless

Various countries will report CPI data.





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,435, 24,847
Potential support around 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, TLU1, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 1,483, 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451,TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
13 Nov, Mon
  • No important data
14 Nov, Tue
  • 1000 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 
  • 1800 EUR Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
  • 2130 USD US PPI (MoM) (Oct)
15 Nov, Wed 
  • 0750 JPY Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Claimant Count Change (Oct)   
  • 2130 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2130 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2130 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
16 Nov, Thu
  • 0830 AUD Australia Employment Change (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
  • 2130 USD US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 
17 Nov, Fri
  • 2130 USD US Building Permits (Oct)
  • 2130 CAD Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)