Sunday, May 31, 2015

Potential Trade (30 May 15)


Gold and Silver
Daily UT, Weekly DT
After the sell down on Tue, a new diff is formed and small range for last few days.  COT little change
Gold

  • potential Resistance 1,207, 1,212, and 1,225
  • potential Support 1,184, 1,178 and 1,149
Silver
  • potential Resistance 17.13, 17.71, 17.78 and 18.00
  • potential Support 16.68, 16.55 and 16.32

Platinum
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
After the sell down on Tue, it continue to go lower for next 2 days.  The next support level is 1,093
potential Resistance 1,126, 1,150, and 1,164
potential Support 1,093

Palladium
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
In consolidation mode and forming symmetrical triangle.  Waiting for break out or break down.  Little change on COT.
potential Resistance 800, 8192, and 831
potential Support 770, 754 and 727

Copper
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Continue to go lower, pierce theur strong support 275 on Fri, next support level is 265.3.  COT selling interest rebounded strongly but still at extreme.
potential Resistance 280, 289 and 295
potential Support 265 and 252

Gasoline
UT, pierce thru channel support, broke lhf and rebounded.  Still within the consolidating range.  To continue with more upside, need to break 2.102 and close above for 2-3 days
potential Resistance 2.102 and 2.176
potential Support 1.985 (strong support) and 1.938

Wheat
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke Diff on Tue and continue to trade lower, broke trend resistance.  No sign of picking up yet.  SL was triggered
potential Resistance 480, 489 and 507
potential Support 470 and 463

Soybean Oil
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Formed new diff and rebounded strong on Fri.  Did not hit tp, took smaller profit
potential Resistance 33.52 and 34.60
potential Support 32.34, 31.57 and 31.30

Coffee Arabica
DT.  Looking to long on breaking next Diff. Seem trend supported. COT buying interest at extreme.  Size: Small


Cotton
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support or trend support
potential Resistance 65.01 and 65.83
potential Support 63.12 and 62.17

EA Result (29 May 15)

The result for May is the wost since I started the test since last year Nov.  I will be doing any revision of tuning start for the month of Jun.

Tuned Result (G2)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  

 

Dollar Index broke 96.30 resistance

US Dollar Index broke 96.3 resistance and closed the week at 96.94.  A diff is formed and closed below the Diff.  It may pull back to 96.3  level before the climb resume

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 30 May 15

BDI little change closing at 589 (29 May) from 586 (22 May)

Summary
Most commodities continue to closed lower.  Natural gas is the worst performer, down more than 8%

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Oats
  • Corn
  • Soybean
  • Soybean Meal
  • Rough Rice (1)
Neutral
  • Wheat (UT to Neutral)
  • Orange Juice (1)
  • Lumber (DT to Neutral)
Up Trend 
  • Cotton
  • Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Crude
  • Soybean Oil
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend 
  • Copper

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
DT.  It broke short term trend resistance last week, resisted at 5,752.  Failing to stay above above Diff 5,714, will see more sell down
Strong support around 5,580, tested for 3 weeks.  Resisted by Diff RL
Potential resistance around 5,752, 5,845 and 5,932
Potential support around 5,665, 5,617 and 5,800

Japan
UT.  Create new high again and a new Diff is formed.  Diff SL supported
Potential resistance around 20,900^, 22,500^
Potential support around 20,357, 20,237, 20,114 and 19,973
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
UT.  New diff is formed, trade below Daily and weekly Diff and broke trend support.  An outside day is formed on a weekly chart.  It is consolidating between 26,933 and 28,620
Potential resistance around 28,213, 28,460, 28,620 and 28,871.
Potential support around 27,262, 26,933, and 26,681

Hong Kong China H-Shares
UT. New Diff is formed and trade below Diff.  Supported by weekly Diff.  It is consolidating between 14,916 and 13,686.  Failing to stay above 13,686, may see lowering to cover the gap between 2 and 8 Apr.
Potential resistance around 14,513, 14,621, 14,773 and 14,873
Potential support around 14,047, 13,686, 13,021 and 12,404

UK
UT.  Outside dat formed on weekly and daily chart.  Trading along rising wedge support.  No clear direction.
Potential resistance around 7,047, 7,079 and 7,105
Potential support around 6,949 and 6,919

Germany
DT. On Tue, it broke daily Diff and formed outside day followed by 2 inside day.  On Fri, it broke down and closed the week abut 3% lower.  It tested trend support and closed above the trend support
Potential resistance around 11,471, 11,893, 11,994 and 12,238
Potential support around 11,326, 11,216 and 10,930

Singapore
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT. 
A false break out on Mon and Tue.  On Wed, it broke down and continue to sell down on Fri.  Short term seem to be lowering.
Potential resistance around 3,405 and 3,450
Potential support around 3,355, 3,330 and 3,301

India
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Waiting to short when price move higher, preferable at channel resistance.
Potential resistance around 8,441, 8,530 and 8,578
Potential support around 8,358, 8,223 and 8,127

Indices Performance Chart - 30 May 15

Most markets closed lower this week.  China A50 lost all the gain on last week.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
 
  • Nasdaq (increased for 1st week)
  • S&P (increased for 1st week), buying interest at near to 20150 high
Neutral 
  • Dow (increased for 1st week)
  • Russell (increased for few weeks), buying interest at highest since 2014
 


As mentioned last week "Dow look weak in weekly chart", "Nasdaq and Russell tested resistance and pull back", Dow pull back more than 1%.

In daily chart, Dow trend resisted. S&P move within Diff, trend supported. Nasdaq resisted by Taos, Daily and weekly Diff.  Russell move within Diff, trend resisted.  Based on COT buying interest buying up especially on Russell and S&P, there will be more upside if can break and closed above resistance for 2-3 days

Dow potential resistance around 18,074, 18,169 and 18,222
Dow potential support around 17,948, 17,839 and 17,747

S&P potential resistance around 2,126 and 2,137
S&P potential support around 2,100, 2,089 and 2080

Nasdaq potential resistance around 4,548 and 4,562
Nasdaq potential support around 4,474, 4,460 and 4,430

Russell potential resistance around 1,255, 1,261 and 1,271
Russell potential support around 1,240, 1,234, 1,224 and 1,217



Sunday, May 24, 2015

Potential Trade (23 May 15)


Gold, Silver and Platinum
Daily UT, Weekly DT
After moving higher to test resistance on Mon (18 May), sharp pulled back on Tue (19 May)  and consolidating around support region COT buying interest for Gold and Silver decreased sharply for this week
Gold

  • potential Resistance 1,212, 1,222, 1,232 and 1,266
  • potential Support 1,193, 1,184 and 1,170
Silver
  • potential Resistance 17.19, 17.47, 17.78 and 18.00
  • potential Support 17.09, 16.68, 16.45 and 16.32
Platinum
  • potential Resistance 1,164, 1,177 and 1,187
  • potential Support 1,142, 1,122 and 1,093

Copper
Daily UT, Weekly DT,
Copper down by 5% this week and pierce thru 280 support.  COT selling interest is at extreme.
potential Resistance 280, 289 and 295
potential Support 275 (strong support) and 265

Wheat
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New Diff formed. Took profit on Tue and enter again on Thur when broke lhf.
potential Resistance 520, 529 and 536
potential Support 507, 489 and 480

Soybean Oil
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke Diff SL on Mon and tested again Tue.  Fri formed hlf 2ET.
Looking to take partial when hit 31.30 and 30.80 or broke pdh
potential Resistance 32.34 and 32.67
potential Support 31.30, 30.80 and 30.37

Coffee Arabica
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
looking to long on breaking next lhf. Size: Small

Gasoline

UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support
Consolidating for 4 weeks, thur and fri closed above daily and weekly Diff. 
potential Resistance 2.102 and 2.176
potential Support 1.985 (strong support) and 1.938

Cotton
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support or trend support
Long on Thur when broke lhf, we closed with doji and sl was triggered on Fri.
potential Resistance 64.38 and 65.01
potential Support 62.53 and 62.17

Orange Juice
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
COT buying interest at extreme, MA turning from DT to neutral
Will goes small and short term trade on lhf 2et
potential Resistance 120.3, 123.7 and 129.7
potential Support 111.5, 108.2 and 105.0

EA Result (22 May 15)

This week EA still below expectation

Tuned Result (G2)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).



Dollar Index tested resistance 96.3

US Dollar broke trend resistance, lhf 2et and tested 96.3 resistance level, closed the week at 96.11.  On Fri (22 May) formed an outside day (potential of a new trend), if US Dollar can trade and closed above 94.8 for 2-3 days, potential of more upside.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA


Commodities Update - 23 May 15

BDI slid below 600 level closing at 586 (22 May) from 637 (15 May)

Summary

Most commodities are closed lower while USD strengthening.  Coffee Arabica is the worst performer, down more than 10%.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Corn
  • Soybean
  • Soybean Meal
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Lumber (1)
Neutral
  • Orange Juice (1) (From DT to Neutral)
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cotton
  • Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Crude
  • Soybean Oil
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Copper
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10
, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






 

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Strong support around 5,580, tested for 3 weeks.  Resisted by Diff RL
Potential resistance around 5,692, 5,760 and 5,840
Potential support around 5,580, 5,500 and 5,320

Japan
UT.  Create new high. Broke weekly Diff RL and strong resistance 20,360.  New diff formed.  Diff SL supported
Potential resistance around 20,900
^, 22,500^
Potential support around 20,109, 19,865, 19,448 and 19,092
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance


Hong Kong
UT.  Shared with a chat group on Wed. Consolidated for 3 days, Diff supported.  Broke out on Fri (22 May) and tested 27,970 and 28,210 resistance.  It need to trade above  and closed above 27,970 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 28,210, 28,460, 28,620 and 28,871.
Potential support around 27,970, 27,546, and 27,120


Hong Kong China H-Shares
UT. Broke lhf on daily and broke pwh on weekly chart, trend resistance was tested.
Potential resistance around 14,773, 14,852, 15,354 and 16,406
Potential support around 14,513, 14,081, 13,779 and 13,686

UK
UT.  Moving higher gradually with small ROC in rising wedge (bearish pattern) and test resistance 7,047.  Do go slow with SL in place.  Overall seem weak.
Potential resistance around 7,047, 7,079 and 7,105
Potential support around 6,949 and 6,919


Germany
UT.  Broke lhf in weekly chart and formed a new weekly diff.  Move within Diff, Price below MA.  Looking to short if break hlf, SL will be Diff RL.
Potential resistance around 11,994, 12,238 and 12,380
Potential support around 11,719, 11,471, 11,326 and 11,216

Singapore
UT.  New Diff formed, moving within symmetrical triangle. May watch for break out or break down
Potential resistance around 3,450, 3,466, 3,488 and 3,516
Potential support around 3,435 and 3,405

India
Daily DT, Weekly UT
On a weekly chart, it broke lhf and continue to move higher, broke 8,435 resistance
More in favour to short when price move higher, preferable at channel resistance.
Potential resistance around 8,578 and 8,705
Potential support around 8,358, 8,223 and 8,127


Indices Performance Chart - 23 May 15

Europe and Asia closed higher this week while US closed with little change.    China A50 is the best performer, up more than 6%.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • Dow (decreased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
  • S&P (decreased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (increased for 3rd week)
Dow and S&P continue to make new high this week.  Dow look weak in the weekly chart forming shooting star.  In daily chart, Nasdaq and Russell tested resistance and pull back.  I will continue to add small hedge positions if break hlf or pwl


Dow potential support around 18,222, 18,169 and 18,074
S&P potential support around 2,117, 2,100 and 2,089
Nasdaq potential support around 4,487, 4,460 and 4,430
Russell potential support around 1,251, 1,248, 1,243 and 1,240

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Abbreviation and Legend

Abbreviation Description
+ROC Closing price > Opening Price
-ROC Closing price < Opening Price
Diff One of the V3Go Technique (default is daily)
Diff RL Diff Resistance Level
Diff SL Diff Support Level
DT Down Trend, 50 SMA pointing down
ET V3Go Entry Technique
HLF Higher Low Formation (The low is getting higher)

Typically used to short in DT if the price broke pdl
LHF Lower High Formation (The high is getting lower)

Typically used to long in UT if the price broke pdh
Outside Day In V3Go mean potential start of a new Trend
pdh Previous Day High
pdl Previous Day Low
pwh Previous Week High
pwl Previous Week Low
Small ROC opening and closing prices are almost the same (Doji)
TAOs One of the V3Go Technique (default is daily)
Taos RL Taos Resistance Level
Taos SL Taos Support Level
UT Up Trend, 50 SMA pointing up

Legend

Potential Trade (16 May 15)


Gold, Silver and Platinum
Gold, Silver and Platinum break out of Symmetrical triangle
Gold break out from dt channel
Gold

  • potential Resistance 1,233 and 1,266
  • potential Support 1,212 and 1,912
Silver
  • potential Resistance 18.00 and 18.33
  • potential Support 17.18 and 16.68
Platinum
  • potential Resistance 1,177 and 1,187
  • potential Support 12143 and 1,122

Copper
Daily UT, Weekly DT, looking to short when break pwl, sideway for 2 weeks, COT selling interest at extreme

Wheat
Neutral, looking to take profit if break pdl and to long on breaking next lhf

Soybean Oil
UT, looking to short, COT selling interest at extreme. Size: Small
      Fri formed outside day but closed within Diff.  Will short when goes below Diff.

Coffee Arabica
DT, looking to long on breaking next lhf. COT buying interest at extreme.  Size: Small

Gasoline
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support

Cotton
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support or trend support

EA Result (15 May 15)

Tuned Result (G2)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning). 


Dollar Index hover along resistance line

US Dollar continue to trade around trend resistance and closed at 93.18 this week
The next support level will be around 91.50 and 89.50.  For more upside, preferably closed above trend resistance for 2-3 days in daily chart.


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 16 May 15

BDI rebounced from 574 (08 May)  to 637 (15 May)

Summary
Energy continue to trade higher, the rest are mixed.

COT

Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Oats (1)
  • Corn
  • Soybean Meal
  • Orange Juice (1)
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Lumber (1)
Neutral
  • Coffee Arabica (1) (From DT to Neutral)
  • Wheat (1) (From DT to Neutral)
  • Gold  (From DT to Neutral)
  • Silver
Up Trend
  • Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Crude
  • Soybean Oil
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Copper
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






 

Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily DT, Weekly UT
New Diff created and trade above Diff, resisted by Trend resistance and weekly Diff SL
Potential resistance around 5,760 and 5,840
Potential support around 5,680, 5,500 and 5,320

Japan
UT.  Tested 19,770 resistance level twice.  Broke pwh but closed below pwh.
Potential resistance around 19,770, 20,360 and 20,240
Potential support around 19,130 and 18,870

Hong Kong
UT.  Broke out of symmetrical and descending triangle on Fri (15 May) and tested 27,970 resistance (weekly Diff SL).  New Diff created.
Potential resistance around 27,970, 28,210 and 28,615.
Potential support around 27,120, 27,055, 26,690 and 25,580

Hong Kong China H-Shares
UT. Broke out of symmetrical and descending triangle on Fri (15 May).  New Diff created.  Based on weekly chart, this instrument look weak.  

Need to break pwh and closed above pwh for more upside.
Potential resistance around 14,100 and 14,500
Potential support around 13,670, 13,030 and 12,415

UK
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT.
Tested trend support on Thu (14 May) and closed with a Doji on Fri. 
New Diff is formed and resisted by Trend resistance.  Will continue to watch for break out or break down.  Overall it look weak.
Potential resistance around 7,075 and 7,100
Potential support around 6,945, 6,915 and 6,895

Germany
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Move within Diff, Price below MA.  Looking to short if break hlf, SL will be Diff RL.
Potential resistance around 11,751 and 11,995
Potential support around 11,295, 10,930 and 10,570

Singapore
UT.  New Diff formed, resisted by Trend resistance.  Weekly chart closed with a Doji and is inside day.
Potential resistance around 3,473, 3,488 and 3,516
Potential support around 3,453, 3,425 and 3,388

India
Daily DT, Weekly UT
On a weekly chart, hover around MA for 3 weeks and closed with Doji for 2 weeks.  This week closed with inside day.
For 3 weeks, it trade within the range of 8,120 and 8,342
More in favour to short when price move higher, preferable at channel resistance.
Potential resistance around 8,340, 8,435 and 8,635
Potential support around 8,000 and 7,820

Indices Performance Chart - 16 May 15

Europe and Asia closed lower this week while US closed higher.  Australia is the best performer (up more than 2%) while China A50 and Germany down nearly by 2%.



Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

Neutral

  • Dow (increased for 2nd week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
  • S&P (decreased for 1st week)
  • Russell (increased for 2nd week), highest level since 2014

Once again US indices tested support level on Tue and rebounded and closed with small ROC.  This week CFD for Dow and S&P broke all time high while cash markets yet to break.  Nasdaq and Russell both closed with a Doji on Fri.  Dow, S&P and Russell broke pwh.  Ascending triangle formed on Dow and S&P, do monitor for potential break out or break down as Indices seem to be trying to look for direction.

Most of my hedge positions SL was triggered except for Nasdaq and Russell.  Small long positions was added on 13 May (wed) when broke lhf.