Sunday, June 26, 2016

Dollar Index rallied

Dollar Index broke recent high and 96.3 and closed lower resisted by TLU7.  In weekly chart, closed with outside day.  If dollar index and continue to close above 95.5 is a positive sign.
Resistance at TLU7, 96.3, TLD2, 97.3, TLU6, TLD3, 98.3
Support at TLD7, 95.0, TLU8, 94.0, TLD1, 93.3, 92.5

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 25 Jun 16

BDI broke below 600 and recovered to 609 (24 Jun)
Harpex lower from 355.84 (04 Jun) to 352.53 (18 Jun)

Summary
Metals closed higher, grains closed lower while the rest are  mixed

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Copper
Neutral
  • Palladium (1)
  • Platinum
Up Trend 
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Sugar
  • Corn
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal
  • Heating Oil
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average







Indices Performance Chart - 25 Jun 16

Most markets slammed down this week after Brexit vote to leave EU .

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (increased for 1st week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets slammed down on Fri during vote counting demonstrate in favor of leaving EU and after the result is confirmed.  Outside day is formed on weekly chart and broke recent low (May's low).  Looking at COT raw data, both nos of long and short positions had decreased, the nos of long positions had decreased more than short positions.


Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD4, TLD3, 17,600, 17,829, TLD5, 18,189
Potential support around 17,271, 17,083, TLD2, 16,745, TLD1,  16,503

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,028, 2,045, 2,061, 2,081, TLD3, 2,102, 2,116, TLU4, 2,129
Potential support around TLD5, 1,996, 1,973, TLU2, 1,930

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,271, TLU2, 4,347, TLD3, 4,537
Potential support around 4,193, 4,089, TLD5, TLD2, 3,956

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,137, TLU5, 1,164, TLU2, 1,185, 1,213
Potential support around 1,114, TLD4, 1,082, 1,049, 1,009

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
27 Jun, Mon
  • No important data
28 Jun, Tue
  • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
29 Jun, Wed
  • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
30 Jun, Thu
  • 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jun)
  • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1)
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)
01 Jul, Fri
  • Hong Kong and Canda Holiday
  • 0750 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
  • 0750 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) 
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
  • 2030 USD Building Permits (May) 
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (May)

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Announcement 11 Jun 16

Due to work commitment, next week either temporary stop update for a week or limited update.

Dollar Index recovered above 94

Dollar Index broke down 94 level for 2 days and recovered.  Dollar Index maybe bullish to small range on short term till Thur morning 0200 (SGT)
Resistance at 95.0, TLD7, TLU7, 96.3
Support at TLD1, 94.0, TLU8, 93.3, 92.5, TLD6, 91.5

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 11 Jun 16

BDI no change for the week at 610 (10 Jun)
Harpex sharply lower again to 355.84 (04 Jun) from 356.67 (28 May)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Copper
  • Palladium (1)
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend 
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Sugar
  • Corn
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal
  • Heating Oil
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New diff is formed and closed below Diff.  If unable to recover for next 2-3 days, may see testing UT channel lower band.
Potential resistance around 5,266, TLU6, 5,316, TLU3, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, 5,025, TLU4, TLD5, TLD4, 4,833

Japan 
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Trying to recover but failed after failed to overcome TLU4.  A new diff is formed, tested Diff SL and closed within Diff.  Movement still within symmetrical triangle.
Potential resistance around 16,581, TLU4, 16,896, 17,328, TLD6, 17,890
Potential support around  TLU5, TLU6, 15,418, 14,795

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT 
Broke TLD5 but failed to hold and sell down broke Diff SL.  Looking to long on next lhf break.  In weekly chart, closed with -roc, short term weakness.
Potential resistance around 21,080, TLD5, 21,682, TLU4, 22,409
Potential support around TLU2, 20,011, TLU5, 19,073, TLU3,  18,051

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT 
New diff is formed and broke below Diff.  Similiar to Hong Kong, weekly chart closed with -roc, short term weakness.
Potential resistance around 9,006, 9,195, TLU2, TLD4, 9,658
Potential support around 8,637, TLD5, TLU5, 8,102, TLU3, TLD3, 7,479

UK
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke down and closed below diff.  Outside day is formed on weekly chart. It may remain weak till uk referendum on 23 Jun.  Still within the familiar consolidation range.
Potential resistance around 6,125, 6,297, TLD2, 6,429, 6,578, TLU2, 6,809
Potential support around 6,070, 6,010, TLD1, TLU3, 5,894, 5,768

Germany
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke down and tested weekly Diff.  If closed below 9,679 for 2-3 days may see testing long term support, TLU2
Potential resistance around 9,924, TLU1, 10,189, TLU3, 10,653, TLD3, 10,930, 11,147
Potential support around TLD2, 9,679, 9,468, 9,216, TLU2, 8,928

India
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Failed to break out and back to Diff range.  If Diff (daily and weekly) fail to hold, may see retrace back to Up trend support channel
Potential resistance around TLU2, 8,223, 8,435, 8,578, 8,705
Potential support around 8,085, 7,991, 7,929, 7,817, 7,682

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
13 Jun, Mon
  • Australia holiday
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 
14 Jun, Tue
  • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (May)  
  • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 
15 Jun, Wed
  • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr)  
  • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (May)   
  • 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (May) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
16 Jun, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Economic Projections 
  • 0200 USD FOMC Statement   
  • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 
  • 0230 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 
  • 0645 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
  • 0930 AUD Employment Change (May)   
  • 1100 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)   
  • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference 
  • 1530 CHF Interest Rate Decision 
  • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (May) 
  • 1900 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Jun) 
  • 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (May) 
  • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)  
17 Jun, Fri
  • 2030 USD Building Permits (May) 
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (May)

Indices Performance Chart - 11 Jun 16

Most markets closed lower this week.  

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (increased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (decreased for 3rd week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets closed mixed for the week.  DOW, S&P and Russell closed with small roc where Nasdaq closed with outside day in weekly chart.  16 Jun, Thur have stream of important events.  Some of the major one are FOMC Statement at 0200 (SGT) and Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at 0230 (SGT).




Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD5, 18,189, 18,637, TLU4, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 17,829, 17,600, TLD4, TLD3, 17,271, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,116, TLU4, 2,129, 2,137, TLU5
Potential support around 2,102, TLD3, 2,081, 2,061, 2,045, TLD5, 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLD3, 4,537, 4,640, 4,682, 4,772, TLU1
Potential support around 4,347, TLU2,  4,271, 4,193, TLD5

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,185, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274
Potential support around TLU2, 1,164, 1,137, 1,114, TLD4, TLD6, 1,082

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Dollar Index broke down

Dollar Index broke a few support levels after NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) dropped to the lowest since 2010 while little change on stock markets.  The downside maybe limited.
Resistance at TLD1, 95.0, TLU7, TLD7, 96.3
Support at 94.0, TLU8, 93.3, 92.5, TLD6, 91.5


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 04 Jun 16

BDI edge higher to 610 (03 Jun) from 606 (27 May)
Harpex sharply lower to 356.67 (28 May) from 359.98 (21 May)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher this week, except energy.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Copper
  • Palladium (1)
Neutral
  • Cocoa
  • Oats
Up Trend 
  • Wheat
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Sugar
  • Corn
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal
  • Heating Oil
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average








Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily UT, Weekly DT
No clear direction for the 4th week.  New weekly diff is formed.
Potential resistance around TLU3, 5,463, 5,528, 5,617, TLU2, 5,735
Potential support around 5,316, TLU6, 5,266, 5,138, 5,025

Japan 
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Tested the upper symmetrical triangle (TLD6) and retraced.  New daily and weekly is formed.  Weekly chart closed with a -roc outside day while daily chart closed with 3 black soldiers,  these show -ve sentiment.
Potential resistance around 16,581, TLU4, 16,896, 17,328, TLD6, 17,890
Potential support around  TLU5, TLU6, 15,418, 14,795

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT 
New diff is formed.  If can break TLD5 and stay above positive sentiment will continue. 
Potential resistance around 21,080, TLD5, 21,682, TLU4, 22,409
Potential support around TLU2, 20,011, TLU5, 19,073, TLU3,  18,051

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT 
Need to overcome weekly diff RL (9,360) to confirm Up trend.
Potential resistance around 9,006, 9,195, TLU2, TLD4, 9,658
Potential support around 8,637, TLD5, TLU5, 8,102, TLU3, TLD3, 7,479

UK
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Back to consolidation range. TLD2 will be the resistance line to watch out.
Potential resistance around 6,297, TLD2, 6,429, 6,578, TLU2, 6,809
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, 6,010, TLD1, TLU3, 5,894, 5,768

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Failed to test Apr high and pull back.  Fri closed with outside day and below TLU1, short term is not that positive.
Potential resistance around TLU1, 10,189, TLU3, 10,653, TLD3, 10,930, 11,147
Potential support around 9,924, TLD2, 9,679, 9,468, 9,216

India
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
No clear direction after last week big movement.  Will still watch for entry on pull back.
Potential resistance around 8,223, 8,435, 8,578, 8,705
Potential support around TLU2, 8,085, 7,991, 7,929, 7,817, 7,682

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
06 Jun, Mon
  • New Zealand holiday
  • No important data 
07 Jun, Tue
  • 0030 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks (Tentative)
  • 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Jun)  
  • 1330 INR Interest Rate Decision 
  • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (May) 
08 Jun, Wed
  • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
  • 1028 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (May) 
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
09 Jun, Thu
  • Hong Kong and China Holiday
  • 0500 NZD Interest Rate Decision 
  • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (May) 
10 Jun, Fri
  • China Holiday
  • 2030 CAD Employment Change (May) 

Indices Performance Chart - 04 Jun 16

More Asia markets closed higher while Europe and US closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (sharp decreased on 2nd week)
  • Russell (decreased for 2nd week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed with small changed for this week after last week rallied.  Weekly Diff is formed.  On daily chart, US markets closed with an outside day.  Not much US data next week except for Fed Chair Yellen may speak on Tue.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 17,829, TLD5, 18,189, TLU4, 18,637, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around TLD4, 17,600, TLD3, 17,271, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around  2,102, 2,116, TLU4, 2,129, 2,137, TLU5
Potential support around TLD3, 2,081, TLD5, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,537, 4,640, 4,682, TLU1, 4,772
Potential support around TLD3, 4,347, TLD5, TLU2, 4,271, 4,193

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,185, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274
Potential support around TLU2, 1,164, 1,137, 1,114, TLD4, TLD6, 1,082