Monday, December 17, 2018

Dollar Index broke consolidation

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke lhf, broke consolidating resistance and closed above 97.3
Dollar Index need to continue to close above 97.3 to stay positive, else is a fake break out.
Resistance at TLU1, 97.3, 98.7, Trend Channel resistance, 99.8
Support at Trend Channel support, TLU1, 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 15 Dec 18

BDI closed higher at 1401 (14 Dec) from 1372 (07 Dec)
Harpex closed lower to 498.58 (07 Dec) from 502.16 (30 Nov)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Heating Oil
  • Crude 
  • Orange Juice (1) 
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Lumber
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • Soybean Oil (1)
  • Silver
Up Trend
  • Gold
  • Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 15 Dec 18

On the weekly chart, US markets broke pwl and recent low (except for Nasdaq)

BDI closed higher while Harpex closed lower.

Dollar index broke consolidation.

Watch out for 20 Dec 0300 Hrs for US Interest rate decision and Statement.

Important event/s for the day
- 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)

This shall be the last post for the Year 2018.  I will be taking a 2-3 weeks break and back on 6 or 13 Jan 2019 (depend on COT reports availability)

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • Nasdaq (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
24,170, 24,841, 25,326, 25,645, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175, 22,776, 22,121

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,710, 2,747, 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily 
DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,982, 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428
Potential support around 6,516, TLU3, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261, 6,061, 5,950

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
1,420, 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609
Potential support around 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
17 Dec, Mon
  • 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
18 Dec, Tue
  • 0830 Australia Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
  • 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index 
  • 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)
19 Dec, Wed
  • 1730 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)
  • 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories
20 Dec, Thu
  • 0300 US FOMC Economic Projections
  • 0300 US FOMC Statement 
  • 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 0330 US FOMC Press Conference
  • 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 0830 Australia Employment Change (Nov)   
  • Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 
  • 1430 Japan BoJ Press Conference
  • 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
21 Dec, Fri
  • 1730 UK GDP (YoY) (Q3)
  • 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4) 
  • US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)   
  • 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Oct)

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Dollar Index consolidating

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke hlf and closed lower
Dollar Index consolidating between 96.6 and 97.3.
Resistance at Trend Channel support, TLU1, 97.3, Trend Channel resistance, 98.7
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index
COT data are delayed for few days.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 08 Dec 18

On the weekly chart, US markets broke lhf but failed to hold, slumped down and closed lower.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.
  • BDI continues to close higher to 1372 (07 Dec) from 1231 (30 Nov)
  • Harpex closed higher at 502.16 (30 Nov) from 499.18 (23 Nov)
Dollar index consolidating.

COT data are delayed for few days.



Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,841, 25,326, 25,645, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175, 22,776, 22,121

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,710, 2,747, 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,982, 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428
Potential support around 6,516, TLU3, TLU4, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261, 6,061, 5,950

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743
Potential support around 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
10 Dec, Mon
  • 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 UK GDP (MoM)
  • 1730 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1730 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change    
  • 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)
11 Dec, Tue
  • 1730 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct)
  • 1730 UK Claimant Count Change (Nov) 
  • 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)   
  • 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov) 
12 Dec, Wed
  • UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal  
  • 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories
13 Dec, Thu
  • 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision  
  • 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment   
  • 1700 Switzerland SNB Press Conference
  • 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate 
  • 2045 Europe ECB Marginal Lending Facility    
  • 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
  • 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference   
14 Dec, Fri
0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 

Monday, December 3, 2018

Dollar Index broke lhf

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke lhf and closed with a +roc
Resistance at 97.3, Trend Channel resistance, 98.7
Support at TLU1, 96.3, Trend Channel support, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 01 Dec 18

BDI closed higher to 1231 (30 Nov) from 1096 (23 Nov)
Harpex closed lower to 499.18 (23 Nov) from 501.57 (16 Nov)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Heating Oil
  • Crude 
  • Orange Juice (1) 
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Soybean Oil (1)
Up Trend
  • Soybeans
  • Corn
  • Gold (1)
  • Silver
  • Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 01 Dec 18

On the weekly chart, US markets broke lhf and rebounded to closing near to week high.

BDI closed higher while Harpex closed lower.

On the weekly chart, Dollar index also broke lhf and rebounded to close with a +roc.

Various countries will be reporting their manufacturing PMI 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • Nasdaq (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
25,645, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,326, 24,841, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,747, 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily 
DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,982, 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428
Potential support around 6,499, TLU3, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261, 6,061, 5,950

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 
1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
03 Dec, Mon
  • 0945 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
  • 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
  • 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
04 Dec, Tue
  • 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement 
  • 1715 UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks  
  • 1730 UK Construction PMI (Nov)
05 Dec, Wed
  • 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  
  • 1630 Europe ECB ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 1730 UK Services PMI (Nov)
  • 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) 
  • 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 2300 Canada Rate Statement
  • 2315 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories
06 Dec, Thu
  • 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2135 Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov)
07 Dec, Fri
  • 0745 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
  • 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov) 
  • 2130 Canada Employment Change (Nov) 

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Dollar Index tested support

Dollar Index broke hlf, tested trend channel support and rebounded to close higher

Resistance at 97.3, Trend Channel resistance, 98.7
Support at TLU1, 96.3, Trend Channel Support, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6




COT for Dollar Index
COT data are delayed for few days due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA



US Markets 24 Nov 18

US markets continue to slump down.  Nasdaq broke Oct low, tested trend support, recovered some losses and closed above it.

BDI and Harpex rebounded.
  • BDI raised to 1096 (23 Nov) from 1031 (16 Nov)
  • Harpex also closed higher to 501.57 (16 Nov) from 499.48 (09 Nov)

Dollar Index tested trend channel support and rebounded.

COT data are delayed for few days due to a Federal holiday.




Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
24,841, 25,326, 25,645, 25,784, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, TLU6, 23,175, 22,776, 22,121

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,710, 2,747, 2,786, 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,593 2,551, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,725, 6,982, 7,134, 7,282, TLU6, 7,516, 7,706, TLU7, 8,428
Potential support around 6,518, TLU3, TLU4, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261, 6,061, 5,950

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around
 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743
Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388 TLU3, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
26 Nov, Mon
  • 0615 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech
  • 0800 EU Brexit Summit
  • 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index 
  • 2200 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks   
27 Nov, Tue
  • 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)   
28 Nov, Wed
  • 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)
  • 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories
29 Nov, Thu
  • 0100 US FOMC Member Powell Speaks
  • 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
  • 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
30 Nov, Fri
  • 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov) 
  • 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep)