Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index closed higher while consolidating.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD1,102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 28 Oct 2023

The US market closed lower.

The dollar index closed higher while consolidating.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by Japan, the US and the UK.
• US NFP
• Multiple countries reporting Manufacturing PMI data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161,4,396, 4,632, 4,867

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,649, 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170

Potential support around 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 Oct, Mon

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Sep) 
• 1700 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2100 German CPI (MoM) (Oct)

31 Oct, Tue

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1600 German Retail Sales YoY (Sep)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)

01 Nov, Wed

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Nov, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 1655 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
• 2000 UK BoE Monetary Policy Report
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 Nov, Fri

• Japan on holiday
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Oct)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Commodities Update 28 Oct 2023

BDI closed at 1,563 (27 Oct)

Harpex closed at 884 (27 Oct)

CDFI closed at 1,107.13 (27 Oct)

CCFI closed at 811.5 (27 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Corn (1)
• Soybeans (1)
• Copper (1)
• Palladium (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Platinum

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

No update for this week

Due to family commitments, there is no update until further notice.

COT for US Indices 

COT for Dollar Index

Download Commodities COT

No update of blog for this week

Due to family commitments, there is no update.

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower. It tested TLU2 trend resistance again and failed to hold above it.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD1,102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Oct 2023

BDI closed higher from 1,701 (29 Sep) to 1,929 (06 Oct)

Harpex closed lower from 953 (29 Sep) to 934 (06 Oct)

CDFI remained the same due to the holiday at 1,187.45 (06 Oct)

CCFI remained the same due to the holiday at 851.96 (06 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Corn (1)
• Soybeans (1)

Neutral

• Coffee
• Palladium
• Platinum
• Copper (1)
• Gold
• Silver
• Gasoline

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 07 Oct 2023

The US market closed lower, except the Nasdaq closed higher.

While Harpex continued to close lower, BDI continued to close higher. CDFI and CCFI are closed for a long holiday.

The dollar index closed lower. It tested TLU2 trend resistance again and failed to hold above it. 

Watch out for

• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Multiple countries reporting CPI data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,930, 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Oct, Mon

• Canada and Japan on holiday
• No important data

10 Oct, Tue

• No important data

11 Oct, Wed

• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)

12 Oct, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

13 Oct, Fri

• 0930 China CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher. It tested TLU2 trend resistance and failed to hold above it.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, TLU1, 109.7
Support at 103.6, TLD1,102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 30 Sep 2023

BDI closed higher from 1,593 (22 Sep) to 1,701 (29 Sep)

Harpex closed lower from 1,003 (22 Sep) to 953 (29 Sep)

CDFI closed higher from 1,131.15 (22 Sep) to 1,187.45(29 Sep)

CCFI closed lower from 871.8 (22 Sep) to 851.96 (29 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Wheat (1)
• Corn (1)
• Soybeans

Neutral

• Coffee
• Palladium (1)
• Copper (1)
• Gold
• Silver
• Gasoline

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

US Markets 30 Sep 2023

The US market closed mixed; while Dow and S&P closed lower, Nasdaq and Russell closed higher.

Harpex and CCFI continued to close lower, while CDFI and BDI continued to close higher. 

The dollar index closed higher. It tested TLU2 trend resistance and failed to hold above it. 

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by Australia and New Zealand
• Speech by US Fed Chair Powell
• Multiple countries reporting Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI
• US NFP
• China Golden Week Holiday

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• S&P

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,454

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Oct, Mon

• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 1555 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 2130 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

03 Oct, Tue

• China on holiday
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

04 Oct, Wed

• China on holiday
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1555 German HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales YoY (Aug)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

05 Oct, Thu

• China on holiday
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI s.a (Sep)

06 Oct, Fri

• China on Holiday
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep)