Monday, June 26, 2017

Dollar Index continues to be resisted

Dollar Index broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold above again.  In the weekly chart, it formed an inside day.   It needs to stay above 97.3 to overcome bearish sentiment.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Jun 17

BDI close higher from 851 (16 Jun) to 870 (23 Jun)
Harpex lower from 443.72 (10 Jun) to 439.54 (17 Jun)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Soybeans (1)
  • Soybean Meal
  • Sugar (1)
  • Coffee  (1)
  • Cocoa
  • Orange Juice
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Gasoline
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Soybean Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Wheat
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 24 Jun 17

Most markets closed lower.  In the weekly chart, US markets closed higher with -roc for Dos and S&P..
BDI closed higher while Harpex continues going down.
Dollar Index continues to be resisted at 97.3.
Wed, US Goods Trade Balance and US GDP data on Thu
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed mixed in the daily chart.  In the weekly chart, us markets closed higher.   Dow and S&P closed with -roc, while Nasdaq and Russell closed with +roc.  Nasdaq broke lhf on the weekly chart.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,722, TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

    26 Jun, Mon
    • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
    • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) 
    27 Jun, Tue
    • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
    28 Jun, Wed
    • 2030 USD Goods Trade Balance
    • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)      
    • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    29 Jun, Thu
    • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
    30 Jun, Fri
    • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
    • 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jun)
    • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
    • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
    • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)

    Sunday, June 18, 2017

    Dollar Index failed to hold

    Dollar Index rebounded and broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold above before closing for the week.  In the weekly chart, an outside day is formed with a small roc.  It needs to stay above 97.3 to overcome bearish sentiment.
    Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
    Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0


    USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

    Weekly chart with 50 SMA

    Commodities Update - 17 Jun 17

    BDI edge higher from 849 (09 Jun) to 851 (16 Jun)
    Harpex lower again from 458.92 (03 Jun) to 443.72 (10 Jun)

    Summary
    Most metals, coffee and sugar closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

    COT 
    Download Commodities COT
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Down Trend

    • Soybeans
    • Soybean Meal
    • Sugar (1)
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Orange Juice
    • Natural Gas
    Neutral
    • None
    Up Trend
    • Soybean Oil

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Up Trend

    • Feeder Cattle
    • Rough Rice
    Neutral
    • Gold
    Down Trend
    • None

    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






    Indices Performance Chart - 17 Jun 17

    Most markets closed lower.  US markets closed mixed, no clear direction.  A quiet week ahead, not many important data.  Based the COT charts, I will be extra cautious.
    Harpex continues to decline.  Metals closed lower.
    Dollar Index broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold before closing.

    Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None
    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


    US markets closed mixed.  Dow made new historic high, Nasdaq continue to pull back, S&P and Russell formed inside day in the weekly chart.  Based the COT charts, I will be extra cautious especially increase buying interest in Others while a decrease in Dealer.

    Dow
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
    Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

    S&P
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
    Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

    Nasdaq
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 5,722, TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
    Potential support around TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

    Russell
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
    Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

    Key event to watch out  (SG Time)


      19 Jun, Mon
      • No important data
      20 Jun, Tue
      • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
      21 Jun, Wed
      • 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
      • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (May)  
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      22 Jun, Thu
      • 0500 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
      • 0500 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 
      23 Jun, Fri
      • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
      • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (May)
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (May)

      Sunday, June 11, 2017

      Dollar Index recovered

      Dollar Index broke pwl and recovered with a +roc.
      Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
      Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0


      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA

      Commodities Update - 10 Jun 17

      BDI moved higher from 830 (02 Jun) to 849 (09 Jun)
      Harpex continue to move lower from 483.97 (27 May) to 458.92 (03 Jun)

      Summary
      Energy continues to close lower, soft commodities closed higher while metals closed mixed.

      COT 
      Download Commodities COT
      Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Down Trend

      • Soybeans (1)
      • Soybean Meal
      • Soybean Oil
      • Sugar (1)
      • Coffee
      • Cocoa
      • Orange Juice
      • Natural Gas
      Neutral
      • None
      Up Trend
      • Corn (1)

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Up Trend

      • Feeder Cattle
      • Gold
      Neutral
      • None
      Down Trend
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






      Indices Performance Chart - 10 Jun 17

      Markets closed mixed.  Nasdaq created a new historic high and tumbled down broke hlf, recovered some losses before closing.  S&P formed an outside day on the daily chart.

      Energy continues to close lower, soft commodities closed higher. 

      Dollar Index broke pwl and recovered with a +roc.

      15 Jun will be an important day.  Starting at 0200Hrs, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press Conference, Statement and Economic Projections.  In the afternoon, SNB Interest Rate Decision with Press Conference follow by BoE Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes in the evening.

      Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None
      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

      US markets closed mixed.  Nasdaq created new historic high and tumbled down broke hlf, recovered some losses before closing.
      S&P formed an outside day on the daily chart.

      Dow
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
      Potential support around 21,099, TLU5, TLU11, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

      S&P
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
      Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

      Nasdaq
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
      Potential support around 5,722, TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

      Russell
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
      Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

      Key event to watch out  (SG Time)


        12 Jun, Mon
        • Australia Holiday
        • No important data
        13 Jun, Tue
        • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (May)
        • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun) 
        • 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (May)
        14 Jun, Wed
        • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 
        • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) 
        • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (May)
        • 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (May) 
        • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
        • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
        • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
        15 Jun, Thu
        • 0200 USD FOMC Economic Projections
        • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
        • 0200 USD FOMC Press Conference
        • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
        • 0645 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
        • 0930 AUD Employment Change (May) 
        • 1530 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
        • 1530 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 
        • 1530 CHF SNB Press Conference
        • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
        • 1900 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
        • 1900 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
        • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) 
        16 Jun, Fri
        • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
        • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
        • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (May)
        • 2030 USD Building Permits (May)

        Sunday, June 4, 2017

        Dollar Index broke support support

        In the weekly chart, formed an outside day with -roc.  Dollar Index may test DT channel again before technical rebound.
        Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
        Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0


        USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

        Weekly chart with 50 SMA

        Commodities Update - 03 Jun 17

        BDI pull back sharply from 912 (26 May) to 830 (02 Jun)
        Harpex pull back from 500.37 (20 May) to 483.97 (27 May)

        Summary
        Energy continue to close lower, while metals continue to close higher, the rest closed mixed.

        COT 
        Download Commodities COT
        Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
        Down Trend

        • Soybeans (1)
        • Soybean Meal
        • Soybean Oil
        • Sugar (1)
        • Coffee
        Neutral
        • Cocoa  (1)
        Up Trend
        • Corn (1)
        • Natural Gas

        Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
        Up Trend

        • Feeder Cattle
        • Gold
        Neutral
        • None
        Down Trend
        • None

        Note
        (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
        (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
        (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
        Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






        Indices Performance Chart - 03 Jun 17

        Most markets closed higher.
        US markets continue to create a new historic high and selectively "ignored" worse than expected and previous Nonfarm Payroll data.
        BDI and Harpex pulling back from the recent peak.
        Dollar Index broke support and formed an outside day in the weekly chart.  
        This week not many important data from the US.  On Tue, RBA Interest Rate Decision.  On 8 Jun, UK Parliamentary Election, Japan GDP, ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference.


        Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
        UT
        • None
        Neutral
        • None
        DT
        • None

        Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

        UT
        • None
        Neutral
        • None
        DT
        • None
        Note
        (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
        (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
        (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
        Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

        Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to create a new historic high.
        Russell broke lhf and formed an outside day in the weekly chart, is time to catch up with the rest?
        Need to be caution as markets hit historic high, markets may pull back or correction by off guard.  Short term is positive.


        Dow
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
        Potential support around 21,099, TLU5, TLU11, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

        S&P
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
        Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

        Nasdaq
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 6,261, 6,983
        Potential support around 5,722, TLU7, TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

        Russell
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
        Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

        Key event to watch out  (SG Time)


          05 Jun, Mon
          • New Zealand, Germany and Switzerland Holiday
          • 1630 GBP Services PMI (May) 
          • 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
          06 Jun, Tue
          • 1230 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
          • 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement
          • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (May) 
          07 Jun, Wed
          • 0930 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
          • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
          08 Jun, Thu
          • GBP UK Parliamentary Election 
          • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
          • 1048 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (May)
          • 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) 
          • 2030 EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
          09 Jun, Fri
          • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (May) 
          • 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)
          • 2030 CAD Employment Change (May)