Sunday, July 26, 2015

Gold and Silver

 
Gold
DT
Continue to sell down tested the support 1072 and rebounded.  

With US interest rate hike just around the corner, inflation remained low.  Europe issue did not result sustainable rise in Gold price, Gold will be heading to test next support level which is 995.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072, and 995
 

Silver
DT
Broke hlf in weekly chart, likely silver will try to test 14.22 (recent low)

Potential Resistance 14.74, 15.58 and 16.68
Potential Support 14.22 and 12.70

Dollar Index supported at 97 range

Dollar Index closed lower at 97.35.  There is a trend line support around 97 range.  If closed below 97 range for 2-3 days, we may see some selling to next support level at 96.3 


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 25 Jul 15

BDI continue to stay above 1000 mark for 2nd week closed the week at 1086 (24 Jul)

Summary
Most commodities continue to close lower despite weakening of US Dollar

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Sugar
  • Oats (1)
  • Soybean Oil
  • Copper
  • Gold
  • Silver (1)
  • Palladium (1)
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Lumber
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Corn
  • Soybean Meal
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Feeder Cattle
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 








Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Neutral
Sell down last 4 days, tested the trend line support and closed above it.  If next week break this week low, channel support may be tested again
Took all profit on wed when broke Diff SL
Potential resistance around 5,617, 5,735 and 5,845
Potential support around 5,528, 5,463 and 5,381

Japan
UT
Tested trend line resistance but failed to stay above it.  Outside day on Tue, new diff created and closed below Diff on Fri.
Potential resistance around 20,619, 20,900, 22,500^ and 23,900^
Potential support around  20,052, 19,740 and 19,092
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly UT 
Tested trend resistance (25,571) and failed to stay above, closed below Diff. 
Potential resistance around 25,571, 26,681 and 27,262
Potential support around 24,892, 23,969, 22,745 and 22,409

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly UT.
In weekly chart, continue to form inside day for 2 consecutive weeks, potential big movement coming.  If next week break this week low
, expect to test recent low (previous 2 week low).
Potential resistance around 11,821, 12,404, 13,021 and 13,595
Potential support around  11,366, 11,080 and 10,450

UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral.
Formed a outside day on weekly chart, expect weakness. Broke one of the trend line resistance on Mon and tested another trend line support on Wed and Thu, broke down on Fri.  New Diff is also formed.
Potential resistance around , 6,578, 6,693, 6,809 and 6,949
Potential support around 6,497, 6,429 and 6,297

Germany
UT
Broke down and closed below Diff.  Currently supported by weekly Diff RL.  Failing to close above weekly Diff and trend lie support, may escalate down further to cover the gap between 9 -10 Jul
Potential resistance around 11,532, 11,774, 11,994 and 12,238
Potential support around  11,291, 11,147, 10,930 and 10,653

India
UT
Formed outside day on Wed and a new diff is formed on Thu.  Fri closed within Diff and above trend line supported. 
Potential resistance around 8,643, 8,705, 8,836 and 9,006
Potential support around 8,483, 8,435 and 8,223


Singapore (Cash)
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
STI gap up on Mon but failed to close above the strong resistance (3,360).  On the positive side it still stay above the trend line support.  STI next strong resistance remained at 3,458 while potential support will be 3,298

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
27 Jul, Mon

  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 
  • 2030 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
28 Jul, Tue
  • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) & (YoY) (Q2)
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)  
29 Jul, Wed
  • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)   
30 Jul, Thu
  • 0200 FOMC Statement   
  • 0200 Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 1555 German Unemployment Change (Jul)
  • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
31 Jul, Fri
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jul)
  • 1900 RUB Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 
  • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (May) 
01 Aug, Sat
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Indices Performance Chart - 25 Jul 15

This week all the markets pull back between 1-4%.  There is no much economy data except for corporate (Apple and Microsoft) earning below expectation and China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul) still showing contraction.  Market may be factor in possibility of rising interest rate?

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
Neutral
  • S&P  (decreased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (decreased for 1st week)
DT
  • Dow (decreased for 1st week)
S&P and Nasdaq broke new high this week but failed to hold and closed with -ROC.  Dow and Russell broke pwl. Only Nasdaq are still within trend channel.  Overall continue to be volatile.
 

I still have hold some of my short hedging pos while S&P and Nasdaq SL was triggered for those long pos added this week when break lhf.  

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 17,775, 18,189 and 18,367
Potential support around 17,494, 17,271 and 17,083

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  2,116, 2,129 and 2,137
Potential support around 2,086, 2,061, 2,043 and 2,028

Nasdaq
UT
Potential resistance around 4,640, 4,704^ and 4,816^
Potential support around 4,537 4,430 and 4,347
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,240, 1,276 and 1,296
Potential support around 1,225, 1,213 and 1,164

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver
DT
Broke trend line support.  Gold trading within down trend channel while Silver is trading above down trend channel and on Fri (17 Jul) closed within the Diff.  Silver COT buying interest is above 90.  From the charts, Silver seem to be less bearish than Gold
Gold
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072, and 995
Silver
Potential Resistance 15.28, 16.68 and 17.78
Potential Support 14.68, 14.24 and 12.70

Dollar Index broke resistance

Dollar Index tested trend line support last week and this week broke 2 resistance and 1 trend line resistance and closed at 97.99.  The next resistance will be around 98.6.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 18 Jul 15

BDI broke 1000 mark closed at 1048 (17 Jul) from 874 (10 Jul)

Summary
Most of the commodities closed lower due to strengthening of US Dollar

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Gasoline
  • Copper
  • Silver (1)
  • Palladium (1)
Neutral
  • Soybean Oil
Up Trend
  • Oats (1)
  • Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Soybean Meal
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 








Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Neutral, back within the trend channel
Formed outside day on Mon, broke trend line resistance on Tue and Fri closed with outside day but -roc.  Need to stay above trend line support for more upside
Took partial profit when break pdl on Fri
Potential resistance around 5,735, 5,845 and 5,932
Potential support around 5,617, 5,528, 5,463 and 5,381

Japan
UT
Broke trend line resistance on Mon and met with another trend line resistance on Thu and Fri.
Potential resistance around 20,900, 22,500^ and 23,900^ 

Potential support around 20,619, 20,052, 19,740 and 19,092
^Est figure using (cash) chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly UT 
Tested 2 trend line resistance on Wed and Thu.  Broke 2 trend line resistance and broke lhf (2ET) on Fri.  For more upside, need to stay above the trend line support for next few days.
Entered small long pos on Fri.
Potential resistance around 25,571, 26,681 and 27,262
Potential support around 23,969, 22,745, 22,409 and 21,682

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly UT.
Tested trend line resistance from Mon to Thu and broke on Fri at the same time also broke lhf (2ET).  Entered small long pos.
Potential resistance around 12,404, 13,021, 13,595 and 14,047
Potential support around  11,821, 11,366 and 10,450

UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral.
Broke one of the trend line resistance on Mon and tested another trend line resistance on Thu and Fri.  New Diff is also formed.
Potential resistance around , 6,809, 6,949 and 7,047
Potential support around 6,661, 6,578 and 6,429

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Quite similiar to UK, broke one of the trend line resistance on Mon and tested another trend line resistance on Thu and Fri.  New Diff is also formed.
Potential resistance around 11,774, 11,994 and 12,238
Potential support around 11,532, 11,147, 10,930 and 10,653

India
UT
Broke lhf (3ET) on Mon and new diff is formed.
Entered long pos on Mon when break lhf.  Will add long pos on next lhf break
Potential resistance around 8,705, 8,836 and 9,006
Potential support around 8,578, 8,435 and 8,223


STI 
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Next week will be an important whether STI can break the strong resistance (3,360) and stay above ton continue with the UT.  If STI can manage to break out, next strong resistance will be 3,458.  The potential support will be 3,298


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
20 Jul, Mon

  • Japan Holiday
21 Jul, Tue
  • 0930 AUD CPI (Q2)
22 Jul, Wed
  • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun)  
23 Jul, Thu
  • 0500 NZD Interest Rate Decision 
  • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)    
24 Jul, Fri
  • 0945 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
  • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jun)

Indices Performance Chart - 18 Jul 15

Most markets closed higher this week after Greece bailout agreement seem to have come to an agreement.  This will not be the last time nor last one, from time to time, we will see this happening to various countries in Europe.  China had implemented various measures to prevent their stock markets from collapsing, till date there are about 1000 stocks still suspended.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
  • S&P  (decreased for 1st week)
  • Russell (increased for 3rd week)
Neutral
  • Dow (increased for 3rd week)
US Indices broke pwh and continue to trade higher.  Nasdaq closed at 15-yr high after top estimate corporate earning.  S&P (cash market) shy of 6 points to break historic high.  DOW, S&P and Nasdaq are back in the UT channel.
I have closed all my short hedging pos and added long pos.  


Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,169, 18,292 and 18,367
Potential support around 17,971, 17,819 and 17,562

S&P
UT
Potential resistance around  2,131 and 2,137
Potential support around 2,100, 2,080 and 2,062

Nasdaq
UT

Potential resistance around 4,704^ and 4,816^
Potential support around 4,537 4,430 and 4,376

^Est figure using (cash) chart provided by Yahoo finance

Russell
UT
Potential resistance around 1,278 and 1,296
Potential support around 1,261, 1,240 and 1,225

Sunday, July 12, 2015

EA Result (10 Jul 15)

Tuned Result (G3)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  


Dollar Index tested trend line support again

Dollar Index closed above 96.3 for 4 days and Fri closed at 96.17.  On Fri, Dollar Index tested the trend line support and rebounded.  The range will be between the trend lines, either break out or break down will determine the direction for US dollar in short term

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 11 Jul 15

BDI continue to climb higher from 805 (03 Jul) to 874 (10 Jul)

Summary
Soft commodities are mixed this week while Energy and Metals are trading lower.  Rough rice is the best performer, up by 4% while Platinum and Palladium down by 5%.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Sugar
  • Copper
  • Silver (1)
  • Palladium (1)
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • Gasoline
Up Trend
  • Soybean Oil
  • Oats (1)
  • Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Soybean Meal
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • Heating Oil
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

 





Indices short term support and resistance


Most the indices sold down for past 2 weeks, time to watch trend line resistance to see whether is the recovery sustainable.  If can closed above those trend line resistance for 2-3 days is a positive sign with potential for more upside.  I will go long on breaking lhf.  Nothing is 100%, always have SL in place.

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Gap down on Mon, tested channel support on Thu.  Resisted by trend line.
days for more upside
Potential resistance around 5,528, 5,617 and 5,735
Potential support around 5,463, 5,381 and 5,316

Japan
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Gap down on Mon, new diff formed and trade above Diff.  

Potential resistance around 20,402, 20,619, 20,900 and 22,500^ 
Potential support around 20,052, 19,883, 19,740 and 19,092
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly UT 
Sell down continue from Mon to Wed, covered the gap 2-8 Apr, nearly test channel support (yet to test) and rebounded. New Diff is formed.
Potential resistance around 25,571, 26,681 and 27,262
Potential support around 23969, 22,745, 22,409 and 21,682

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly UT.
Similar to Hong Kong, sell down from Mon to Wed.  Broke Channel Support but yet to break trend line support (white color).

Potential resistance around 12,404, 13,021, 13,595 and 14,047
Potential support around  11,821, 11,366 and 10,450

UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral.
Gap down on Mon, trade and closed above one of the trend line support, heading towards another trend line resistance and tested weekly Diff RL
Potential resistance around 6,578, 6,661, 6,809 and 6,949
Potential support around 6,429, 6,297 and 6,125

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Gap down on Mon and gap up on Fri testing trend line resistance, still trading within Channel.  If Germany retrace, the gap between 9-10 Jul may be covered, 10 Jul DL will be one of the important support level.
Potential resistance around 11,147, 11,570, 11,774 and 11,994
Potential support around 10,930, 10,653 and 10,272

Singapore
CMC Markets no long provide the chart as they have switch to STI Futures, SiMSCI but the data are too little to TA.

India
Daily UT, Weekly UT
The upper DT Channel will be the important support for India to have more upside.  I will be long when break lhf.  If any of the day closed within the DT channel, time to be caution.  If closed within the DT channel for 2-3 days, I will get out from my long pos first.
Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578 and 8,705
Potential support around 8,323, 8,223, 8,178 and 7929



Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
13 Jul, Mon
  • 0000 EU Leaders Summit  
  • 1025 CNY Trade Balance

14 Jul, Tue

  • 1630 GBP CPI (Jun)
  • 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)   
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

15 Jul, Wed

  • 1000 CNY GDP (Q2)
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
  • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May)
  • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jun)     
  • 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2200 Fed Chair Yellen Testifies    
  • 2200 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 2200 CAD Interest Rate Decision
  • 2315 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks    

16 Jul, Thu

  • 0645 NZD CPI (Q2) 
  • 1700 EUR CPI (Jun) 
  • 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 
  • 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference    
  • 2200 Fed Chair Yellen Testifies 
  • 2200 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

17 Jul , Fri

  • 0200 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks 
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)    

Indices Performance Chart - 11 Jul 15

Europe markets rallied between 2 to 6% this week on hope a deal for Greece while little changed in US.  China A50 closed near to 6% higher while most Asia closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
DT

  • Dow (increased for 2nd week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
  • S&P (1) (increased for 2nd week), highest since 4 Oct 2011
  • Russell (increased for 2nd week)
 
Note 
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average   


US Indices open gapped down and closed with +ROC for the week.  DOW, S&P and Nasdaq broke the channel support and May Low. DOW and S&P yet to test the main trend line support (white color). A new diff had been formed.

I have took partial profit on my short hedging pos and added small long pos.  

 

DOW
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 17,839, 17,971 and 18,074
Potential support around 17,562, 17,356 and 17,149

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,080, 2,100 and 21,31
Potential support around 2,062, 2,047, 2,038 and 2,020

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,430, 4,512 and 4,537
Potential support around 4,376, 4,332 and 4,271

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,261, 1,278 and 1,296
Potential support around 1,240, 1,233 and 1,213

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

COT (Commitments of Traders)

Reminder, the information is as of 30 Jun 2015 (US TIme)

Indices
Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Down Trend

  • Dow (increased for 1st week), sharp increased
  • Nasdaq (increased for 1st week), sharp increased
  • S&P (1) (increased for 1st week), Sharp increased
  • Russell (increased for 1st week)
 
Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Sugar
  • Oats (1)
  • Copper
  • Silver
  • Palladium (1)
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Soybean Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Up Trend

  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • Heating Oil

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme

(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


Sunday, July 5, 2015

EA Result (03 Jul 15)

Tuned Result (G3)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).  


Dollar Index directionless for the week

Dollar Index gaped up and trade down on Mon, the rest of the weeks are trading inside day of Mon.  Currently is supported by trend line but resisted around 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA