Sunday, August 28, 2016

Dollar Index recovered

After the speech from Fed Yellen and Fischer comment, on the daily chart, Fri closed with an outside day while on the weekly chart, an inside day closed near to week high.  Need to continue to stay within the Trend channel to maintain the bullishness.
Resistance at 96.3, TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 95.0, TLD8, TLU8, TLU9, 94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 27 Aug 16

BDI closed higher at 720 (26 Aug) from 683 (19 Aug)
Harpex lower again this week to 341.76 (20 Aug) from 342.17 (13 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower while Natural gas goes against the odd, rallied more than 10%.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Wheat
  • Corn
  • Oats
Neutral
  • Cocoa
Up Trend 
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Coffee
  • Silver
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • Soybean Meal

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 27 Aug 16

Markets closed mixed this week.  Most Europe and Asia closed with a positive note while the US closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

  • None (US markets buying interest dropped below 70)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

After Fed Yellen speech "case for a rate hike has gained strength in recent months.". While Fischer told CNBC next week's jobs report would weigh on the Fed's rate hike decision. US markets closed with an outside day on the daily chart. Starting from Wed will have important data, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, China, Europe and US Manufacturing PMI.  Last but not least, Fri will have US NFP and unemployment Rate.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Consolidating between 18,161 and 186,38
Potential resistance around 18,638, TLU4, TLU2, 19,440, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Directionless, forming outside day on 3 consecutive bar on the weekly chart.  Big movement may be coming.
Potential resistance around 2285
Potential support around 2178, 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Continue rejection above 4,816
Potential resistance around 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,769, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,240, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1
Potential support around 1,213, TLU5, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
29 Aug, Wed
  • UK holiday
  • No important data
30 Aug, Wed
  • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
31 Aug, Wed
  • 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Aug)
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Aug)
  • 2015 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) 
  • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
01 Sep, Thu
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  
  • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
  • 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)   
02 Sep, Fri
  • 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Aug) 
  • 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)   
  • 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)


Sunday, August 21, 2016

Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Consolidating between 5,430 and 5,617
Potential resistance around 5,528, TLU4, TLU5, 5,617, UT Channel Resistance, 5,735
Potential support around 5,463, UT Channel Support, 5,316, 5,266

Japan 
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Forming a small ascending triangle between TLU4 and 16,896.  Upside maybe limited due to neutral trend in daily chart and DT in weekly chart
Potential resistance around 16,581, TLU3, 16,896, TLU2, 17,328, DT Channel Resistance, 17,890
Potential support around TLU4, TLU1, TLD1, 15,418, 14,795

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly UT 
It had run up quite a fair bit after broke out from symmetrical triangle, 23,463 is a crucial level to overcome and stay above for UT to continue
Potential resistance around 23,463, 23,969, TLU1, 24,892, 25,571
Potential support around 22,409, 21,682, 21,080, TLD5, TLD6, TLU2, TLD5, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Similiar to HK, broke out form symmertical triangle and had a good run up.
Potential resistance around TLU2, 9,658, 9,984, 10,182, TLU1, 10,711
Potential support around TLD4, 9,195, 9,006, TLU6, TLD6, TLU7,  8,637

UK
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Broke out from directionless (since last posting).  Weekly Diff Support (6,781), a level to watch for potential rebound for any pull back.
Potential resistance around 6949, 7,047, TLU2, 7,079, 7,127
Potential support around 6,809, 6,578, 6,429, 6,297

Germany
Daily UT, Weekly UT
A new weekly diff is formed.  TLU1 will be an important support for any pull back.
Potential resistance around TLU4, 10,653, 10,930, 11,147, TLU3, 11,532
Potential support around TLU1, TLD3, 10,189, TLD4, 9,924, 9,679, 9,468

India
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Consolidating between 8,478 and 8,742.  Supported by UT channel.  If broke down from consolidation, may see testing 8,280 level
Potential resistance around 8,705, 8,836, UT Channel Resistance, 9,006
Potential support around UT Channel Support, 8,578, 8,435, TLU2, 8,223

Dollar Index continues to weaken

Dollar Index broke hlf 2ET on the weekly chart. Most likely will cover the choco bar on 24 Jun and may even test 93.3 again.  The downside will be limited as US data is improving.
Resistance at 95.0, TLD8, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU7, 96.3
Support at TLU8, TLU9, 94.0, TLD7, 93.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 20 Aug 16

BDI edge higher this week to 683 (19 Aug) from 671 (12 Aug)
No change on Harpex this week at 342.17 (13 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher. Gasoline is the best performer, up more than 10% while silver is the worst performer, down near to 3%.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Wheat 
  • Corn
  • Oats
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend 
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Silver
  • Lumber
Neutral 
  • Heating Oil
Down Trend 
  • Soybean Meal
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Indices Performance Chart - 20 Aug 16

Markets pull back week after few weeks of gain.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
  • None (US markets buying interest dropped below 70)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed with small ROC in weekly charts. DOW and S&P are directionless.  COT buying interest are below 70 level.  Next week not many important data from US except on Fri, US GDP.  Fed Yellen is going to Speak at Jackson Hole Policy Symposium and traders will be looking for clues and hints on interest rate hike.  Europe various countries will be reporting their Manufacturing PMI on Tue.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Consolidating between 18,161 and 186,38
Potential resistance around 18,638, TLU4, TLU2, 19,440, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Outside day on weekly chart
Potential resistance around 2285
Potential support around 2178, 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Failed to hold above 4,816
Potential resistance around 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,769, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,240, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1
Potential support around 1,213, TLU5, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
22 Aug, Mon
  • No important data
23 Aug, Tue
  • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jul) 
24 Aug, Wed
  • 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jul)
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
25 Aug, Thu
  • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug)
  • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
26 Aug, Fri
  • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
  • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 2200 USD Fed Chair Yellen to Speak at Jackson Hole Policy Symposium 

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Dollar Index tested channel support

Dollar Index slammed down on Wed and went down further on Fri tested channel support with worse than expected retail sales and PPI data.  Closed the week with an inside day back in  the consolidation range.
Resistance at TLU7, 96.3, TLD2, 97.3, TLD3, 98.3
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 95.0, TLU8, TLU9, 94.0, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 13 Aug 16

BDI did a slight recovery from 636 (05 Aug) to 671 (12 Aug)
Harpex continue to create new recent low from 345.07 (30 Jul) to 342.17 (06 Aug)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.  Metals, coffee and sugar closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Wheat 
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Cocoa (1)
Up Trend 
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Silver
  • Cotton
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • Soybean Meal
  • Heating Oil

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 13 Aug 16

Most markets continue to close higher despite worse than expected retail sales and PPI data.


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (decreased for 1st week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets continue to edge higher.  Russell closed with -roc on weekly chart while s&p formed 2 consecutive outside day on the weekly chart.  Nasdaq still trying to test historic high. I will continue to be caution.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,638, TLU4, TLU2, 19,440(4), TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2285(4)
Potential support around 2178, 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), TLU1, 5,538(4)
Potential support around 4,772, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Outside day on weekly chart
Potential resistance around 1,240, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1
Potential support around 1,213, TLU5, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

(4) Refer to Potential resistance after historic high


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
15 Aug, Mon
  • India Holiday
  • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
16 Aug, Tue
  • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jul)
  • Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
  • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
  • 2030 USD Building Permits (Jul)  
  • 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)    
17 Aug, Wed
  • 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)
  • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jul) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
18 Aug, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes  
  • 0930 AUD Employment Change (Jul) 
  • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jul)
  • 1930 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)  
19 Aug, Fri
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 

Sunday, August 7, 2016

Potential resistance after historic high

It is a challenge to know when to take profit  after indices broke  historic high, therefore I am using HLY's theory (Hu Li Yang) as a guidance.

HLY's theory is potential resistance at every 15% interval from the previous historic peak.

For example. Dow peak in Oct 2007 at 13,407
The potential resistance levels are 15,418, 17,429,  19,440, 21,451, 23,462 and so on

S&P  also peak in Oct 2007 at 1,576.  The potential resistance are  1,812, 2,049, 2,285,  2,522, 2,758, ...

Nasdaq 100 peak in Mar 2000 at 4,816.  The potential resistance are 5,538, 6,261, 6,983,  7,706, 8,428, ...

Russell 2000 peak in May 2011 at 868.  The potential resistance are  998, 1,128, 1,259,  1,389, 1,519, ...

Dollar Index rebounded

Dollar Index rebounded back to consolidation range after better than expected NFP data but worse than previous.
Resistance at 96.3, TLD2, 97.3, TLD3, 98.3
Support at TLU7, Trend Channel (Blue), 95.0, TLU8, TLU9, 94.0, TLD7



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 06 Aug 16

BDI continue to lower from 656 (29 Jul) to 636 (05 Aug)
No sign of recovery, Harpex lower from 345.90 (23 Jul) to 345.07 (30 Jul)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.  Energy, coffee and sugar closed higher while metals and grains closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Wheat (1)
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend 
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Silver
  • Cotton
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • Soybean Meal
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Indices Performance Chart - 06 Aug 16

After the announcement of better than expected NFP data, most markets closed higher

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P (increased for 2nd week)
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Correction for last week posting, Nasdaq yet to broke historic high @ the year 2000.
US markets recovered from earlier losses and closed higher.
New diff is created.  As COT buying interest continue to decrease except S&P,  I am more caution to go heavily on long.  This week, not much US economic data except on Fri, earning season also coming to an end.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,638, TLU4, TLU2, 19,440(4), TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2285(4)
Potential support around 2178, 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), TLU1, 5,538(4)
Potential support around 4,772, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Outside day on weekly chart
Potential resistance around 1,2401,259(4)1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1
Potential support around 1,213, TLU5, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

(4) Refer to Potential resistance after historic high

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
08 Aug, Mon
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Jul) 
09 Aug, Tue
  • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jul)
  • 1330 INR Interest Rate Decision 
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) 
10 Aug, Wed
  • Tentative CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (JUL)
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
11 Aug, Thu
  • Japan Holiday
  • 0500 NZD Interest Rate Decision
  • 0500 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement    
  • 0500 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
12 Aug, Fri
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 
  • 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
  • 1700 EUR Europen GDP (YoY) (Q2)    
  • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)