Dollar Index tested 97.3 resistance level

The dollar index tested the recent high and the resistance level 97.3, trimming most of the gains before closing higher.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 26 Feb 2022

BDI rebounded and closed higher from 1,964 (17 Feb) to 2,076 (25 Feb)

Harpex closed higher, from 4,398 (18 Feb) to 4,407 (25 Feb)

CCDI rebounded and closed higher, from 1,235.66 (18 Feb) to 1,343.39 (25 Feb)

CCFI closed lower, from 3,500.19 (18 Feb) to 3,425.58 (25 Feb)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 26 Feb 2022

US market broke pwl (previous week low), recovered to close higher with a +roc (closing price > opening price) on the weekly chart except for Dow, closed lower with a +roc.

BDI, CDFI, and Harpex closed higher except for CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested 97.3 resistance level but failed to hold. Despite the trimmed gain, it still closed higher.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• Australia and Canada Interest rate decision 
• Speech by US President Biden, Europe ECB Guindos, US Fed Chair Powell
• US Nonfarm Payrolls

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell
• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Feb, Mon

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Goods Trade Balance (Jan)
• 2230 Canada ADP Employment Change (Jan)

01 Mar, Tue

• 0600 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 0800 US President Biden Speaks
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement 
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Dec)
• 2230 Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

02 Mar, Wed

• 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Feb)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb) 
• 1900 Europe ECB Guindos Speech  
• 21150 US ADP Employment Change (Feb)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testimony

03 Mar, Thu

• 0830 Australia Balance of Trade (Jan)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Feb)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies  
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

04 Mar, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Feb)

Dollar Index closed lower

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation). It tested 96.3 resistance level, trimmed most of the gain and closed lower with a +roc (closing price > opening price)
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 Feb 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,977 (10 Feb) to 1,964 (17 Feb) 

Harpex closed higher, from 4,360 (11 Feb) to 4,398 (18 Feb)

CCDI closed lower, from 1,277.69 (11 Feb) to 1,235.66 (18 Feb)

CCFI closed lower, from 3,587.91 (11 Feb) to 3,500.19 (18 Feb)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 19 Feb 2022

US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower, except Russell closed lower with an inside day on the weekly chart.

BDI, CDFI and CCFI closed lower except for Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate, New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• Speech by Europe ECB Guindos and UK BoE Gov Bailey

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Feb, Mon

• US and Canada holiday
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1700 Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
• 1730 UK Services PMI
• 2130 Canada ADP Employment Change (Jan)

22 Feb, Tue

• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)
• 2245 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)

23 Feb, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference  
• 1500 German GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1930 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 

24 Feb, Thu

• 2115 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Jan)

25 Feb, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales YoY (Q4)
• 0801 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)

Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index tested TLU1 trend support and closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 Feb 2022

BDI closed higher, from 1,423 (04 Feb) to 1,977 (10 Feb)

Harpex closed higher, from 4,258 (04 Feb) to 4,360 (11 Feb)

CCDI closed higher, from 1,067.97 (28 Jan) to 1,277.69 (11 Feb)

CCFI closed higher, from 3,565.33 (28 Jan) to 3,587.91 (11 Feb)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gold
• Palladium
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 12 Feb 2022

US market closed lower except for Russell closed higher. S&P and Nasdaq broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart while Dow and Russell trimmed some gains before closing.

Dow weekly MA improved from DT (Down Trend) to Neutral, while Russell weekly MA deteriorated from Neutral to DT.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and, CCFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher but directionless.

Watch out for

• CPI data from multiple countries
• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Dow

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Feb, Mon

• No important data

15 Feb, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP
• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Jan)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)
• 1800 Europe Employment Change
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Jan)

16 Feb, Wed

• 0930 China CPI YoY (Jan)
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

17 Feb, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (Jan)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Jan)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Jan)
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

18 Feb, Fri

• 0730 Japan CPI YoY (Jan)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada ADP Employment Change (Jan)
• 2130 US Existing Home Sales (Jan)

Dollar Index slumped

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart, returned all the gain of last week and closed lower.  It tested TLU1 trend support and closed above it.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Feb 2022

BDI rebounded higher from 1,302 (27 Jan) to 1,423 (04 Feb)

Harpex closed higher, from 4,109 (28 Jan) to 4,258 (04 Feb)

CDFI last closed on 28 Jan at 1,067.97, followed by China long holiday

CCFI last closed on 28 Jan at 3,565.33, followed by China long holiday

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar

Neutral

• Gold

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 05 Feb 2022

US market broke lhf (lower high formation), trimmed some of the gains, and closed higher.

BDI and Harpex closed higher while CDFI and CCFI closed for a long holiday.

The dollar index returned all the gain of last week and closed lower.

Watch out for

• Balance of Trade from multiple countries
• Speech by ECB De Guindo, BoE Gov Bailey, and Australia RBA Gov Lowe

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,396, 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097, 17,819

Potential support around 14,207, 13,485, 12,762, 12,410

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561, 2,691

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Feb, Mon

• New Zealand Holiday
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI

08 Feb, Tue

• 2130 US Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Balance of Trade (Dec)

09 Feb, Wed

• 1500 German Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

10 Feb, Thu

• 2000 Europe ECB De Guindos Speech
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

11 Feb, Fri

• Japan Holiday
• 0415 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 0630 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
• 1500 UK GDP
• 1500 UK Goods Trade Balance (Dec)
• 2300 US Fed Monetary Policy Report
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)