Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and rebounded after testing 102.3 support before closing.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 Mar 2023

BDI closed lower from 1,535 (17 Mar) to 1,489 (24 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,066 (17 Mar) to 1,105 (24 Mar)

CDFI closed lower from 1,107.42 (17 Mar) to 1,087.94 (24 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 992.5(17 Mar) to 977.12 (24 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Wheat (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Cotton (1)
• Rough Rice (1)

Neutral

• Silver

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Markets 25 Mar 23

The US market closed higher. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart, while Russell closed with a -roc (closing price < opening price) outside day on the weekly chart.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed lower, while Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Start of Daylight Saving on 26 Mar in Europe
• GDP data by multiple countries
• Speech by UK BoE Gov Bailey
• China Manufacturing PMI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• S&P

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,762, 12,040, 11,318, 10,595, 9,873

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,259

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Mar, Mon

• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) 

28 Mar, Tue

• 0100 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 1645 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Feb) 
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)

29 Mar, Wed

• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

30 Mar, Thu

• 2000 German CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

31 Mar, Fri

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1400 UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower.
Resistance at 103.6, TLU2, TLU1, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

The cyber-related incident at ION prevented timely and accurate data submission to the CFTC. CFTC started clearing backlogged reports and expects to complete them by mid-Mar.

COT reports will resume when the data is up to date.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 18 Mar 23

The US market closed mixed. Dow and Russell closed lower, while S&P and Nasdaq closed higher.

BDI closed higher from 1,424 (10 Mar) to 1,535 (17 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,056 (10 Mar) to 1,066 (17 Mar)

CDFI closed higher from 1,070.64 (10 Mar) to 1,107.42 (17 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,020.6 (10 Mar) to 992.5(17 Mar)

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by China, US, UK and Switzerland.
• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• EU Leaders Summit
• Start of Daylight Saving on 26 Mar in Europe

The cyber-related incident at ION prevented timely and accurate data submission to the CFTC. CFTC started clearing backlogged reports and expects to complete them by mid-Mar.

COT reports will resume when the data is up to date.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Possible support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207

Possible support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Mar, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2200 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  

21 Mar, Tue

• Japan Holiday
• 0000 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales

22 Mar, Wed

• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 1645 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 Mar, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1)
• 1800 Europe EU Leaders Summit  
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2000 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
• 2000 US Building Permits
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Feb)

24 Mar, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1800 Europe EU Leaders Summit  
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 2145 US Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 

Dollar Index closed slightly higher.

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close slightly higher with a very small -roc (closing price < opening price).
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, 109.7
Support at TLU1, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

The cyber-related incident at ION prevented timely and accurate data submission to the CFTC. CFTC started clearing backlogged reports and expects to complete them by mid-Mar.

COT reports will resume when the data is up to date.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 11 Mar 23

The US market slumped.
Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart, while Russell broke hlf (higher low formation) and consolidated support level.

BDI continues to rally higher, from 1,211 (03 Mar) to 1,424 (10 Mar) 

Harpex remained the same at 1,056 (10 Mar) 

CDFI rallied higher from 1,017.13 (03 Mar) to 1,070.64 (10 Mar) 

CCFI closed lower from 1,057.68 (03 Mar) to 1,020.6 (10 Mar) 

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

Watch out for

• Start of Daylight Saving in the US
• China Industrial Production
• Europe and US CPI data
• Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision

The cyber-related incident at ION prevented timely and accurate data submission to the CFTC. CFTC started clearing backlogged reports and expects to complete them by mid-Mar.

COT reports will resume when the data is up to date.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Possible support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207

Possible support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Mar, Mon

• No important data

14 Mar, Tue

• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Feb)
• 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Feb)

15 Mar, Wed

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Mar, Thu

• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Feb)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Feb)  
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference

17 Mar, Fri

• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb)  
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, 109.7
Support at TLU1, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

The cyber-related incident at ION prevented timely and accurate data submission to the CFTC. CFTC started clearing backlogged reports and expects to complete them by mid-Mar.

COT reports will resume when the data is up to date.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 04 Mar 23

The US market closed higher.
S&P and Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart, while Russell closed with an inside day.

BDI rallied higher from 883 (24 Feb) to 1,211 (03 Mar)

Harpex closed lower from 1,059 (24 Feb) to 1,056 (03 Mar)

CDFI closed higher from 935.05 (24 Feb) to 1,017.13 (03 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,077.75 (24 Feb) to 1,057.68 (03 Mar)

The dollar index broke pwh (the previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by Australia, Canada and Japan
• Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• US NFP
• Start of Daylight Saving on 12 Mar in the US

The cyber-related incident at ION prevented timely and accurate data submission to the CFTC. CFTC started clearing backlogged reports and expects to complete them by mid-Mar.

COT reports will resume when the data is up to date.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Possible support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207

Possible support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 Mar, Mon

• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Feb)

07 Mar, Tue

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies

08 Mar, Wed

• 0555 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
• 1800 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
• 2300 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

09 Mar, Thu

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

10 Mar, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Jan) 
• 1500 German CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Feb)
• 2300 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks