Sunday, April 26, 2015

Potential Trade (26 Apr 15)

BDI is yet to pick up, I will continue to goes small and slow when long

Wheat
Neutral, Long on 21 Apr, SL triggered on 24 Apr


Gasoline
UT, Add Long pos on 23 Apr
Long on 15 Apr, took partial on 20 Apr


Heating Oil
UT, Long on 23 Apr
Long on 10 Apr, closed on 20 Apr


Cotton

UT, will long on lhf break, COT picking up again


Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr, add pos on 14 Apr, closed on 20 Apr


Copper
UT, Will long on lhf 2ET, COT picking up


Coffee Arabica
DT,  Long on 16 Apr, closed on 20 Apr
       Long on 21 Apr


Palladium
DT, Short on 20 Apr, took partial on 22 Apr (testing Taos SL)


Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)

From UT to Neutral, No trade, wait for clearer sign


Silver
DT, Short on 14 Apr, add short pos on 20 Apr
Will close position if closed above Diff RL


EA Result (24 Apr 15)

Tuned Result (G2)
 
Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).



Dollar Index broke symmetrical triangle

This week US Dollar broke pdl with 2ET, pwl, daily and weekly diff SL, symmetrical triangle and closed the week at 97.09
Outside Day also formed on Thu, in V3Go terminology mean potential start of a new trend.  Dollar Index is on ut, therefore the downside will be limited



V3GO sentiment graphs also reflect various USD pairs, USD is weakening



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
 


 Weekly chart with 50 SMA


BDI still not showing any sign of picking up, remained low at 600 (24 Apr)

Summary
Coffee, Sugar & Energy are trading higher this week while Metals trading lower despite Dollar Index is weakening.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Cocoa
  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Corn (From Neutral to DT)
  • Wheat (1) (From Neutral to DT)
  • Oats
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Orange Juice (1)
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Lumber (1)
  • Natural Gas (1) (From Neutral to DT)
  • Silver
  • Gold
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Copper
  • Cotton

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






Indices short term support and resistance

Australia broke lhf, diff rl and rallied up to breaking trend resistance, next week may see breaking recent high.  UK, HK and HK China H-shares are in consolidation mode.  Germany strong support region is around 11,600 region.  Breaking the strong support, next support level will be around 11,280 region.

Indices Performance Chart - 25 Apr 15

Europe closed mixed this week.  China A50 and India closed lower while HK and US markets closed higher

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

  • Dow (increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 1st week)
  • S&P (decreased for 3rd week)
  • Russell (decreased for 3rd week)

Nasdaq is the star performer this week (up by more than 2%) and broke recent high.  Nasdaq and S&P broke Diff RL. Trend resistance this week while DOW and Russell still within Diff Region.  DOW is trying to break trend resistance.  May monitor Russell, in consolidation mode for past 6 weeks.

My hedge position on Nasdaq and S&P SL was triggered.  I have added Long pos on Tue when broke lhf.  No add on position on Thu when broke lhf.




Sunday, April 19, 2015

Potential Trade (18 Apr 15)

Wheat
From UT to Neutral, Will long lhf 2ET
New Diff formed, another trend supported tested
If closed below trend support, will not long


Gasoline
UT, Long on 15 Apr
Will add pos when break lhf
Long on 10 Apr, took profit on 13 Apr


Heating Oil
UT, Long on 10 Apr
Will add pos when break lhf
Will close if break Diff SL


Cotton
Will not monitor further, broke trend support, COT lesser buying interest

Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr, add pos on 14 Apr
Will close pos of break pdl


Copper
UT, Will long on lhf 2ET
COT picking up


Coffee Arabica
DT,  Long on 16 Apr, took partial on 17 Apr when trend resistance is tested
if unable to stay above trend resistance, will close all position


Palladium
DT, Long on 10 Apr, closed on 14 Apr when broke pdl


Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
From DT to UT, Long on 10 Apr, closed on 17 Apr when Diff RL is tested and broke pdl


Silver
DT, Short on 14 Apr
Will close position if closed above Diff RL


EA Result (17 Apr 15)

Tuned Result (G2)

Test Result (T2)
This is another set of test T2 result (No tuning).


Dollar Index moving within symmetrical triangle

Dollar Index closed lower this week to 97.71 from 99.6.
Dollar Index moving within symmetrical triangle, the range is getting smaller and watch for break out or break down



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)
 

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 18 Apr 15

BDI still remained low at 597 (17 Apr)

Summary
More commodities are trading higher this week due to USD weakening.  Energy and Coffee Sugar are the better performer this week, up between 1-8%.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Cocoa
  • Sugar Raw
  • Coffee Arabica (1)
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Orange Juice (1)
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Lumber (1)
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Wheat (1) (UT to Neutral)
  • Natural Gas (1) (DT to Neutral)
Up Trend
  • Copper

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Crude  
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) No COT data available
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






 

Indices short term support and resistance

I will be watching Nikkei and Dax more closely.  Nikkie had tested trend channel support while Dax going to test.  Next support will be 50MA.  Till date Dax had pullback around 6% from the recent peak.




Indices Performance Chart - 18 Apr 15

After new high last week, this week most markets closed lower between 1 to 5% except for China (A50 and SSEC) up more than 6%.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
Up Trend

  • Dow (decreased for 2nd week)
  • Nasdaq (decreased for 2nd week)
  • S&P (decreased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (decreased for 2nd week)
DOW and S&P tested the trend resistance and failed to stay above.  A new Diff was formed.  On Fri US markets broke pdl and Diff SL during  the sell down, this result in -ve ROC on weekly chart.  Do watch out for US markets, if break pwl will bring more selling.  1st support will be recent 3 weeks low, 2nd support will be weekly chart trend support or 50MA.

Long pos was added on wed when broke lhf and took partial on Thu.  Hedge positions was triggered on Fri when broke pdl and closed all the positions added recently.





Sunday, April 12, 2015

Potential Trade (11 Apr 15)

Wheat
From Neutral to UT, Long LHF 1ET
New Diff formed, if closed below trend support, will not long.


Gasoline
UT, Long on 10 Apr
Will add pos on next break on LHF if break Diff RL


Heating Oil
UT, Long on 10 Apr
Will add pos on next break on LHF if break Diff RL


Cotton
UT, Will wait for trend support tested and enter on next LHF


Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr
New Diff formed, trade within Diff


Coffee Arabica
DT,  Will wait for trend support tested and enter on next LHF


Palladium
DT, Long on 10 Apr LHF 2ET


Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
From DT to UT, Long on 10 Apr
Trade above daily and weekly Diff RL


Rough Rice
DT, waiting for clearer sign before long
Broke daily and weekly Diff SL as well as short term trend support
Will only trade on LHF 2ET


Lumber
DT, just monitor since COT above 90
Broke down ascending triangle, closed below new Diff

Silver
DT, will short on hlf 2ET
Trading within new Diff.  Broke support (16.68).  COT turning down