Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke support and recovered some losses before closing slightly lower.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Dec 2022

BDI closed higher from 1,386 (09 Dec) to 1,560 （16 Dec）

Harpex closed lower from 1,348 (09 Dec) to 1,297 （16 Dec）

CDFI closed higher from 1,077.07 (09 Dec) to 1,086.56 （16 Dec）

CCFI closed lower from 1,410.11 (09 Dec) to 1,339.43 （16 Dec）

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Rough Rice (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Gold
• Cocoa
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude
• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 17 Dec 2022

The US market closed lower. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed with a -roc (closing price < opening price) on the weekly chart.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• Japan Interest rate decision
• GDP data from the UK, US and Canada

I will take a break; this update will be the last for 2022. 
The next update will resume on 07 Jan 2023.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Dec, Mon

• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec)

20 Dec, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes  
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 1100 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 2130 US Building Permits (Nov)  
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

21 Dec, Wed

• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Dec)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Dec, Thu

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

23 Dec, Fri

• Australia, New Zealand, and UK markets close early
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Oct)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

Dollar Index forming another consolidation

The dollar index is forming another consolidation. It closed higher on a weekly chart with an inside day.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Dec 2022

BDI closed higher from 1,324 (02 Dec) to 1,386 (09 Dec)

Harpex closed lower from 1,360 (02 Dec) to 1,348 (09 Dec)

CDFI closed higher from 1,055.75 (02 Dec) to 1,077.07 (09 Dec)

CCFI closed lower from 1,464.76 (02 Dec) to 1,410.11 (09 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Soybeans

Up Trend

• Gold
• Cocoa
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude
• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 10 Dec 2022

The US market broke hlf (higher low formation) on the weekly chart and closed lower. Nasdaq and Russell are consolidating, while S&P is back in the consolidation range.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index is forming another consolidation.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions by the US, Switzerland, Europe, and the UK.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around  4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Dec, Mon

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ)
• 1500 UK Goods Trade Balance (Oct)

13 Dec, Tue

• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Nov)
• 1500 German CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Nov)

14 Dec, Wed

• 0630 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4)
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Dec, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (Nov)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Nov)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 2115 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference  

16 Dec, Fri

• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI  
• 1730 UK Services PMI
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)

Dollar Index broke consolidation support

The dollar index broke consolidation support and closed lower.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Dec 2022

BDI remained at 1,324 (02 Dec)

Harpex closed lower from 1,372 (25 Nov) to 1,360 (02 Dec)

CDFI closed lower from 1,063.99 (25 Nov) to 1,055.75 (02 Dec)

CCFI closed lower from 1,563.46 (25 Nov) to 1,464.76 (02 Dec)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Soybeans
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber
• Cotton
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Gold
• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 03 Dec 2022

The US market closed higher. Nasdaq and Russell are consolidating.

No change in BDI, while Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index broke consolidation support.

Watch out for

• Australia and Canada Interest Rate Decision
• China Inflation Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around  4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Dec, Mon

• 0600 Australia S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
• 0945 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 1655 German S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
• 2245 US S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

06 Dec, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement
• 2130 Canada Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2130 US Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI s.a (Nov)

07 Dec, Wed

• 0830 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Nov)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Dec, Thu

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0830 Australia Balance of Trade (Oct)
• 2000 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Dec, Fri

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6, 117.5
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 26 Nov 22

The US market closed higher. Dow outperformed and closed at six month high.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index is consolidating.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell and Australia RBA Gov Lowe
• US NFP and unemployment data

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Nov, Mon

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

29 Nov, Tue

• 2100 German CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

30 Nov, Wed

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Nov)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Nov)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Oct)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Dec, Thu

• 0230 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1300 Japan Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• 1500 German Retail Sales (Oct)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Oct)
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2230 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

02 Dec, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1000 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech 
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Nov)

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at  109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6, 117.5
Support at 106.7, TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 Nov 2022

BDI closed lower from 1,355 (11 Nov) to 1,189 (18 Nov)

Harpex closed lower from 1,384 (11 Nov) to 1,378 (18 Nov)

CDFI closed lower from 1,116.7 (11 Nov) to 1,049.72 (18 Nov)

CCFI closed lower from 1,729.92 (11 Nov) to 1,651.26 (18 Nov)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Soybeans
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Cotton

Neutral

• Wheat (1)
• Gasoline
• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 19 Nov 2022

The US market closed broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower.

BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.

Watch out for

• New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Short trading week in the US

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• S&P

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around  4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

21 Nov, Mon

• 0930 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  

22 Nov, Tue

• 1500 Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

23 Nov, Wed

• Japan Holiday
• 0600 Australia Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2100 US Building Permits
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Oct)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

24 Nov, Thu

• US holiday
• 0300 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov)

25 Nov, Fri

• US holiday (US market close early)
• 0545 New Zealand Retail Sales YoY (Q3)
• 1500 German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Dollar Index broke down

The dollar index broke consolidation support and slumped.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6, 117.5
Support at TLU2, 103.6, 102.3, 100.3

Dollar Index Long-Term Trend Resistance

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to the delayed release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA