Dollar Index broke out

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke lhf (lower right formation), consolidating range and closed above it
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7
Support at TLD1, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 26 Sep 2020

BDI rebounded from 1,267 (09 Sep) to 1,667 (25 Sep)

Harpex close higher from 671.83 (04 Sep) to 691.81 (18 Sep)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Palladium
• Feed Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean
• Coffee
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 26 Sep 2020

On the weekly chart, US market broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered some of the losses to close with a +roc (close price > open price) except for Dow closed with a -roc (close price < open price).

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index broke out.

Watch out for 

• various countries will be reporting Manufacturing PMI data 
• ECB President Lagarde will be speaking
• US NFP
• China and Hong Kong are having a holiday on Thu and Fri

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• Nasdaq (1)
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 27,345, 28,195, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,303, 3,388, 3,391, 3,454, 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,498, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,649

Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Sep, Mon

• 2145 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks

29 Sep, Tue

• 2000 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)

30 Sep, Wed

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1400 UK GDP
• 1530 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Sep)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)  
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2030 US GDP
• 2030 Canada GDP
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

01 Oct, Thu

• China, Hong Kong holiday
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

02 Oct, Fri

• China, Hong Kong holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

No update for this week

 Due to family commitments, the blog will not be updated.

Dollar Index broke lhf

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke lhf (lower-high formation) and close higher
Resistance at 94.0, TLD1, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 Sep 2020

BDI closed lower from 1,362 (04 Sep) to 1,267 (09 Sep)
Harpex continues to close higher to 671.83 (04 Sep) from 665.87 (28 Aug)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean
• Coffee
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 12 Sep 2020

US market broke pwl (previous week low) and closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price).

BDI closed lower while Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index broke pwh (previous week high) and closed higher.

Watch out for several central banks will release a statement on interest rate decision.  Especially Thur 0200 Hrs (SGT) US FOMC Statement

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None
  

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 28,195, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,454, 3,579, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,391, 3,388, 3,303, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,498, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,649

Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

14 Sep, Mon

• 2300 UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit

15 Sep, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Aug)
• 1400 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)

16 Sep, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

17 Sep, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
• 0645 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Aug)
• 1000 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Aug)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 1900 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes  
• 2030 US Building Permits (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

18 Sep, Fri

• 0030 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index tested support and recovered

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke hlf (higher-low formation), tested 92.0 support and recovered to close higher
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, TLD1, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 05 Sep 2020

BDI closed lower from 1,488 (29 Aug) to 1,362 (04 Sep)
Harpex rallied for another week to 665.87 (28 Aug) from 627.11 (21 Aug)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean
• Coffee
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Rough Rice

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 05 Sep 2020

On the weekly chart, US market closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price) outside day

BDI closed lower while Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index tested support and recovered.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• S&P
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 28,195, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407

Potential support around 27,345, 26,635, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,454, 3,690, 3,925

Potential support around 3,391, 3,388, 3,303, 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,856, 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,649

Potential support around 1,543, 1,519, 1,498, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

07 Sep, Mon

• US, Canada holiday
• No important data

08 Sep, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ)
• 1700 Europe GDP
• 2130 UK Inflation Report Hearings

09 Sep, Wed

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2000 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision

10 Sep, Thu

• 1945 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)
• 1945 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 

11 Sep, Fri

• 0030 Canada BoC's Governor Macklem speech
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM)
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)
• 1400 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)