Monday, October 23, 2017

Dollar Index continues to stay above 93

Dollar Index must not close below recent low (92.5). To continue with the uptrend, it needs to break and close above the recent high.
Resistance at TLD3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, TLU8
Support at 93.0, TLU9, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0, TLD2, 90.6



Commodities Update - 21 Oct 17

BDI closed at 1,578 (20 Oct)
Harpex closed at 505.14 (14 Oct)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee (1)
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Sugar (1)
Up Trend
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Copper
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets - 21 Oct 17

Due to service provider had changed their platform, I have a challenging time finding the chart with instrument comparison features and some of those colors I used on the charts are no longer readable on the new platform.  I need some time to readjust the color to be readable.

US markets closed higher.  Dollar Index continues to stay above 93.0.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Russell
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
23 Oct, Mon
  • No important data
24 Oct, Tue
  • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
25 Oct, Wed
  • 0830 AUD Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 
  • 2030 USD US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 1630 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2200 USD US New Home Sales (Sep) 
  • 2200 CAD Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 2200 CAD Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2315 CAD Canada BoC Press Conference
26 Oct, Thu
  • 0115 CAD Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks    
  • 1945 EUR Europe Deposit Facility Rate 
  • 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
  • 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference     
  • 2200 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)
27 Sep, Fri
  • 0830 AUD Australia Producer Price Index
  • 2030 USD US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Sunday, October 15, 2017

No update of blog for this week

Due to my godmother had passed away, I will not be updating my blog for this week.


Here are the COT charts 


Download Commodities COT

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Dollar Index closed above 93.0

Dollar Index broke and closed above 93.0.  It also tested 94.0 and TLD3 resistance level.
Watch out for 12 Oct release of FOMC Minutes and ECB President Draghi's Speech.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3. 95.0, TLU8
Support at 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 Oct 17

BDI rose from 1,356 (29 Sep) to 1,405 (06 Oct)
Harpex continue to close lower for 2nd week from 513.79 (23 Sep) to 506.34 (30 Sep)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude
Up Trend
  • Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 07 Oct 17

Asia and US closed higher while Europe closed mixed.
US markets created a historic high.
BDI rose, Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke 93 resistance level.

On 12 Oct, FOMC Minutes at 0200 Hrs while ECB President Draghi's Speech at 2230 Hrs.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets created a historic high.  On the weekly chart, Dow and Nasdaq broke lhf.  Russell continues the run-up for 4 consecutive weeks.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 22,717, TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 6,003, 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Oct, Mon
  • Canada and Japan holiday.
  • No important data
10 Oct, Tue
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) 
11 Oct, Wed
  • 2200 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)   
12 Oct, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Minutes*
  • 2030 USD US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2230 EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
  • 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories
13 Sep, Fri
  • 2030 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)