Sunday, January 21, 2018

Dollar Index consolidating

Dollar Index consolidating trying to overcome 90.6.
Resistance at 90.6, TLD2, 92.0, 93.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue)

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 20 Jan 18

BDI continues to close lower at 1,125 (19 Jan) from 1,279 (12 Jan) 
Harpex continues to close higher at 489.34 (13 Jan) from 485.16 (06 Jan)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Soybeans (1)
  • Coffee (1)
  • Sugar
  • Orange Juice
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Wheat
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Copper
  • Palladium
  • Gold
  • Cotton
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 20 Jan 18

US markets continue to close higher.
Dollar Index consolidating.
Thu will have ECB interest rate decision while US GDP data is on Fri.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • Dow
  • S&P
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
26,976
Potential support around Upper Trend Channel (Blue), 24,847, Lower Trend Channel (Blue), 24,682, 24,157, 23,567

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,983
Potential support around Trend Channel (green), TLU3,  2,748, 2,697, 2,668, 2,650, 2,593, TLU1

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  6,983
Potential support around TLU7, 6,347, TLU6, 6,261, 6,061

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,649
Potential support around 1,552, 1,543, TLU3, 1,519, 1,508, 1,497


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

22 Jan, Mon
  • No important data
23 Jan, Tue
  • 1300 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
  • 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)     
17 Jan, Wed 
  • 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
  • 1730 UK German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 1730 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)   
  • 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec) 
  • 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories
24 Jan, Thu
  • 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
  • 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate 
  • 2045 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)  
  • 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)   
  • 2130 ECB Press Conference
  • 2300 US New Home Sales (Dec)
25 Jan, Fri
  • 1730 UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 
  • 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
  • 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Dollar Index broke down

Dollar Index tested 92 resistance, failed to hold and broke down tested 90.6 and trend channel support
Resistance at TLD2, 92.0, 93.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue)
Support at 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue), 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 13 Jan 18

BDI closed lower at 1,279 (12 Jan) from 1,371 (05 Jan)
Harpex closed higher at 485.16 (06 Jan) from 483.08 (30 Dec)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Soybeans
  • Orange Juice
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Wheat
  • Coffee 
  • Sugar
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Copper
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 13 Jan 18

US markets continue to create a historic high.
Dollar Index broke down.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • S&P
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
26,976
Potential support around Upper Trend Channel (Blue), 24,847, Lower Trend Channel (Blue), 24,682, 24,157, 23,567

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around , 2,748, 2,983
Potential support around Trend Channel (green), TLU3,  2,748, 2,697, 2,668, 2,650, 2,593, TLU1

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  6,983
Potential support around TLU7, 6,347, TLU6, 6,261, 6,061

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,649
Potential support around 1,552, 1,543, TLU3, 1,519, 1,508, 1,497


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

15 Jan, Mon
  • US holiday
  • No important data
16 Jan, Tue
  • 1730 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
17 Jan, Wed 
  • 1730 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 2300 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report     
  • 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision    
18 Jan, Thu
  • 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
  • 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 
  • 2130 US Building Permits (Dec) 
  • 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)  
  • 2130 Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 
19 Jan, Fri
  • 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Dollar Index consolidating

Dollar Index continues to lower during the 2nd half of Dec 2017.  It consolidating on the opening week of 2018, tested 92.0 resistance level and failed to overcome
Resistance at 92.0, 93.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue)
Support at TLD2, 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue)


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA