Sunday, November 19, 2017

Dollar Index broke support

Dollar Index broke TLU9 support.  If unable to recover above TLU9, may see more selling ahead.
Resistance at TLD3, 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0, TLD2, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 18 Nov 17

BDI fell from 1,464 (10 Nov) to 1,371 (17 Nov)
Harpex edge higher from 473.24 (04 Nov) to 473.83 (11 Nov)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Corn (1)
Neutral
  • Coffee (1)
Up Trend
  • Sugar
  • Crude (1)
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 18 Nov 17

US markets closed mixed.  DOW and S&P closed lower.  Russell tested TLU1, rebounded and closed higher.

Dollar Index broke down and closed below TLU9 support.

On Thu, US and Japan markets will be closed for the holiday and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 0200 Hrs.  US markets will be closed early on Fri.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq

Neutral
  • None

DT
  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Dow
  • Russell

Neutral
  • None

DT
  • None


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,435, 2,3567, 24,847
Potential support around 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,593, 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, 2,552, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 1,497, 1,508, 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451, TLU1, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
20 Nov, Mon
  • 2200 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
21 Nov, Tue
  • 0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 2200 USD US Existing Home Sales (Oct)
22 Nov, Wed 
  • 0700 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks   
  • 2130 USD US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
23 Nov, Thu
  • US and Japan holiday
  • 0200 USD US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)        
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  
  • 1730 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2030 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 2130 CAD Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)  
24 Nov, Fri
  • US close early - The Day After Thanksgiving
  • 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) 

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

COT 07 Nov 17

COT for US Indices

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


COT for Commodities
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • Corn (1)
  • Coffee (1)
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cocoa
  • Sugar
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar Index continues directionless for the second week.
Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8
Support at 94.0, TLD3, TLU9, 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0



Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 11 Nov 17

This week COT data release is been delayed to 14 Nov (SGT) due to a Federal holiday.  Earliest available will be on 14 Nov late evening or 15 Nov morning.

US markets closed mixed.  
On the weekly chart, 
- Dow closed with a -roc outside day
- S&P broke higher but closed with a +roc doji. 
- Nasdaq broke higher but closed with -roc.
- Russell broke down from consolidation, tested TLU1 and rebounded.  If TLU1 unable next strong support will be around 1,451.

BDI and Harpex continue to go lower. 
BDI lower from 1,476 (03 Nov) to 1,464 (10 Nov)
Harpex lower from 473.83 (28 Oct) to 473.24 (04 Nov)
This is a norm when coming to year end.

Dollar Index directionless

Various countries will report CPI data.





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,435, 24,847
Potential support around 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, TLU1, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 1,483, 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451,TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
13 Nov, Mon
  • No important data
14 Nov, Tue
  • 1000 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 
  • 1800 EUR Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
  • 2130 USD US PPI (MoM) (Oct)
15 Nov, Wed 
  • 0750 JPY Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Claimant Count Change (Oct)   
  • 2130 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2130 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2130 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
16 Nov, Thu
  • 0830 AUD Australia Employment Change (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
  • 2130 USD US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 
17 Nov, Fri
  • 2130 USD US Building Permits (Oct)
  • 2130 CAD Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Dollar Index formed an inside day

Dollar Index trading directionless for the week and closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8



Weekly chart with 50 SMA