Sunday, July 15, 2018

Dollar Index continues to consolidate

Dollar Index continues to consolidate.  On the weekly chart, it formed a +roc outside day tested 95.0 resistance level.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Jul 18

BDI end higher note at 1666 (13 Jul) from 1622 (06 Jul)
Harpex closed lower 668.26 (06 Jul) from 672.73 (29 Jun)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Soybean Oil
  • Gold
  • Platinum (1)
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 14 Jul 18

On the weekly charts, US markets broke lhf and closed higher.  Russell brok lhf but closed lower with -roc.  Nasdaq created a historic high.

BDI closed higher while Harpex closed lower.

Dollar Index consolidating, resisted at 95.0

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 25,402, 
25,784, 26,627, 26,976
Potential support around 24,483, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,825, 2,874
Potential support around  2,786, 2,748, 2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 7,706
Potential support around 7,291, 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,708, 
TLU3, 1,649
, 1,779
Potential support around 1,683, 1,666, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
16 Jul, Mon
  • Japan Holiday
  • 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
  • 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)   
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
17 Jul, Tue
  • 0645 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1630 UK Average Earnings
  • 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
18 Jul, Wed
  • 1630 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)
  • 2200 US Fed's Powell Speech
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
19 Jul, Thu
  • 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun) 
  • 1630 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
20 Jul, Fri
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)   

Monday, July 9, 2018

Dollar Index consolidating

Dollar Index is consolidating
Resistance at 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue)



Due to a Federal holiday, COT data will be delayed for a few days.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 07 Jul 18

US markets closed higher.  On the weekly chart, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell broke lhf.

BDI end with a higher note at 1622 (06 Jul) from 1385 (29 Jun)
Harpex closed lower to 672.73 (29 Jun) from 676.9 (22 Jun)

Dollar Index consolidating, resisted at 95.

Due to a Federal holiday, COT data will be delayed for a few days.




Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,483, 25,784, 26,627, 26,976
Potential support around 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,825, 2,874
Potential support around  2,748, 2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,291, TLU7, 7,706
Potential support around 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,708, TLU3, 1,649, 1,779
Potential support around 1,666, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Jul, Mon
  • No important data
10 Jul, Tue
  • 1630 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May)
  • 1630 UK Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
  • 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
  • 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (May)
11 Jul, Wed
  • 1500 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun
  • 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2315 Canada BOC Press Conference     
  • 2335 UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks     
12 Jul, Thu
  • 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
13 Jul, Fri
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Monday, July 2, 2018

No update of blog for this week

Due to work commitment, I will not be updating my blog for this week.

Here are the COT charts 




Monday, June 25, 2018

Dollar Index resisted at 95.0

Once again dollar index tested 95.0, failed to hold and closed lower with a -roc.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6




COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA