Sunday, September 24, 2017

Dollar Index failed to close above 92.0 again

This is second week Dollar Index tested and failed to close above 92.0.  This is the second week of an inside day since 8 Sep on the weekly chart.  Potential explosive movement coming.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD2, 93.0, TLD3
Support at TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 23 Sep 17

BDI rallied from 1,385 (15 Sep) to 1,502 (22 Sep)
Harpex closed higher from 515.88 (09 Sep) to 517.07 (16 Sep)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Coffee
  • Sugar (1)
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Feeder Cattle
  • Rough Rice
  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 23 Sep 17

Europe closed higher while Asia and US closed mixed.
On the weekly chart, Nasdaq broke hlf and closed with -roc while Russell closed higher almost tested historic high.

BDI rallied and broke 1500 mark while Harpex continues to climb higher.


This is second week Dollar Index tested and failed to close above 92.0.  This is the second week of an inside day since 8 Sep on the weekly chart. 




Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed mixed.  On the weekly chart, Nasdaq broke hlf and closed with -roc while Russell closed higher almost tested historic high.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,512, TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,952, 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
      25 Aug, Mon
      • 0200 EUR German Federal Election
      • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
      26 Sep, Tue
      • 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
      • 1800 GBP UK Inflation Report Hearings
      • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Aug) 
      27 Sep, Wed
      • 1630 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      • 2030 USD US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 
      • 2200 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      28 Sep, Thu
      • 0400 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
      • 2030 USD US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      29 Sep, Fri
      • 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Sep)
      • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep) 
      • 2030 CAD Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul
      30 Sep, Sat
      • 0900 CNY China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
      • 0945 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   

      Sunday, September 17, 2017

      Dollar Index failed to close above 92

      Dollar index closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. 
      Dollar index broke up 92 resistance but failed to hold and closed below.  Watch out for Thu monring Fed Interest Rate Decision 
      Resistance at TLD5, TLD7, 92.0, TLD2, 93.0, TLD3
      Support at TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA

      Commodities Update - 16 Sep 17

      BDI closed at 1385 (15 Sep)
      Harpex closed at 515.88 (09 Sep)

      Summary
      Energy, Coffee and Sugar closed higher.  Metals closed lower while the rest closed mixed.
      BDI and Harpex continue to climb up steadily.

      COT 
      Download Commodities COT
      Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Down Trend

      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      Up Trend
      • Cocoa (1)
      • Coffee
      • Sugar (1)
      • Crude

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Up Trend

      • Feeder Cattle
      • Rough Rice
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Palladium
      Neutral
      • None
      Down Trend
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






      Indices Performance Chart - 16 Sep 17

      US, Japan and Europe closed higher while Asia closed lower.
      Dow and S&P created a new historic high.
      BDI and Harpex continue to climb up steadily.
      Dollar Index broke up 92 but failed to hold when closing.

      Important event on Thu (21 Sep) 0200 Hrs, Fed Interest Rate Decision followed by FOMC Press conference at 0230 Hrs.

      Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
      UT
      • Nasdaq
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

      UT
      • Dow
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None
      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

      US markets (except for Russell) broke lhf.  Dow and S&P created a new historic high.  COT show mixed sentimental. 

      Dow
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
      Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

      S&P
      Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 2,512, TLU1, 2,748
      Potential support around 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

      Nasdaq
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
      Potential support around 5,952, 5,890, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

      Russell
      Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
      Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


      Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
          21 Aug, Mon
          • Japan Holiday
          • 1700 EUR Europe CPI (YoY)
          19 Sep, Tue
          • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes 
          • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)
          • 2030 USD US Building Permits (Aug) 
          20 Sep, Wed
          • 1500 EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting 
          • 1630 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug
          • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Aug)
          • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
          21 Sep, Thu
          • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
          • 0230 USD FOMC Press conference 
          • 0645 NZD New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q2
          • 1000 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 
          • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 
          • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference 
          • 2030 USD US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
          22 Sep, Fri
          • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
          • 2030 CAD Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)  
          • 2030 CAD Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)   

          Sunday, September 10, 2017

          No update of blog until further notice

          Due to my aunt still in hospital for a critical condition, no update on the blog until further notice.

          Here are the COT charts 

          Download Commodities COT