Sunday, March 17, 2024

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index tested 102.3 support again and closed higher with a +roc (closing price > opening price)
Resistance at 103.6, TLD2, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Mar 2024

BDI closed higher from 2,345 (08 Mar) to 2,374 (15 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,200 (08 Mar) to 1,202 (15 Mar)

CDFI closed lower from 1,425.44 (08 Mar) to 1,400.97 (15 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,312.13 (08 Mar) to 1,278.28 (15 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Corn
  • Soybean Oil
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Soybeans (1)
  • Wheat
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • Palladium
Up Trend
  • Sugar (1)
  • Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 16 Mar 24

The US market closed lower, and the Dow is consolidating.
Russell broke the high-low formation on the weekly chart while S&P and Nasdaq closed with an inside day.

While BDI and Harpex closed higher, CCFI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested 102.3 support again and closed higher with a +roc (closing price > opening price)

Watch out for

  • Interest rate decisions by Japan, Australia, the US, Switzerland and the UK.
  • CPI, Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Russell
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884
Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,338
Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily U
T, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,542
Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
2,040, 2,170, 2,300
Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Mar, Mon
  • 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
  • 1000 China Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb)
19 Mar, Tue
  • 1030 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 2030 Canada CPI (YoY) (Feb)
20 Mar, Wed
  • Japan on holiday
  • 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
21 Mar, Thu
  • 0200 US FOMC Statement 
  • 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 0230 US FOMC Press Conference
  • 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1)
  • 1630 German HCOB Services PMI (Mar) 
  • 1630 German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
  • 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Mar) 
  • 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 1730 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
  • 1730 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 
  • 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
  • 2145 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
  • 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)  
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Feb)
22 Mar, Fri
  • 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Feb)
  • 1500 UK Retail Sales YoY (Feb)
  • 2030 Canada Retail Sales YoY (Jan)

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Dollar Index tested support and recovered

The dollar index broke consolidation support, tested 102.3 support and recovered some losses before closing.
Resistance at 103.6, TLD2, 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Mar 2024

BDI closed higher from 2,203 (01 Mar) to 2,345 (08 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,187 (01 Mar) to 1,200 (08 Mar)

CDFI closed higher from 1,346.59 (01 Mar) to 1,425.44 (08 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 1,352.4 (01 Mar) to 1,312.13 (08 Mar)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Corn (1)
  • Soybean Oil (1)
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Soybeans (1)
  • Wheat
  • Copper
  • Platinum (1)
  • Palladium (1)
Neutral
  • Sugar (1)
  • Orange Juice
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 09 Mar 24

The US market closed lower, except Russell closed higher. S&P and Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke consolidation support, tested 102.3 support and recovered some losses before closing.

Daylight Saving Time has started; the US cash market opens at 2130 Hrs instead of 2230Hrs.

Watch out for

  • US CPI data

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884
Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,338
Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily U
T, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,542
Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300
Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Mar, Mon

  • 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

12 Mar, Tue

  • 1500 German CPI (MoM) (Feb)
  • 1500 UK Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Feb)

13 Mar, Wed

  • 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
  • 1500 UK GDP (MoM) (Jan)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

14 Mar, Thu

  • 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)

15 Mar, Fri

  • 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)