Sunday, June 17, 2018

Dollar Index tested 95.0 resistance

On the daily chart, dollar index formed an outside day on last 2nd day of the trading week, tested 95.0 resistance and failed to close above it.
On the weekly chart, it formed an outside day too.  If unable to break and closed above 95.0, may see selling ahead.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Jun 18

BDI surged from 1156 (01 Jun) to 1445 (15 Jun)
Harpex closed higher at 676.61 (08 Jun) from 673.62 (01 Jun)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Soybean Oil
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • one
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cotton
  • Copper
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 16 Jun 18

US markets closed mixed.  On the weekly chart, Dow closed lower with -roc, S&P closed with a -roc doji while Nasdaq and Russell created the historic high.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index tested 95.0 once again.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None



Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
25,784, 26,627, 26,976
Potential support around 25,843, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,825, 2,874
Potential support around  2,748, 2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 7,706
Potential support around 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
TLU3, 1,649
, 1,779
Potential support around 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
18 Jun, Mon
  • No important event
19 Jun, Tue
  • 0130 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1600 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks     
  • 2030 US Building Permits (May)
20 Jun, Wed
  • 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 2130 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 2130 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks     
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)   
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
21 Jun, Thu
  • 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • 1530 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment    
  • 1600 Switzerland SNB Press Conference 
  • 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) 
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)  
22 Jun, Fri
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (May) 
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)   

Monday, June 11, 2018

No update of blog for this week

Due to my personal commitment, I will not be updating my blog for this week.

Here are the COT charts 




Monday, June 4, 2018

Dollar Index failed to test 95 level resistance

On the weekly chart, it shy off from testing 95.0 and closed with a small +roc
Resistance at  95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue)




COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 02 Jun 18

BDI clsoed at 1156 (01 Jun) from 1077 (25 May)
Harpex closed high at 670.64 (25 May) from 661.10 (19 May)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Sugar
  • Soybean Oil
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • one
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Corn
  • Wheat
  • Soybean Meal
  • Cocoa
  • Cotton
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Coffee seems supported for the moment.
Orange juice tested another resistance level and pull back.  Had taken partial profit.





US Markets 02 Jun 18

On the weekly chart, US markets broke lower, recovered and to close with a + roc.

Harpex continues to close higher.

Dollar Index tested higher but failed to hit 95.0 level.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average




Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847, 
TLU11, 25,507, 25,821, Lower Trend Channel (Blue), 25,956
Potential support around 24,175, TLD1, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776, TLU6, 22,121

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748, 2,800, TLU3, Lower Trend Channel (green), 2,874
Potential support around  2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406

Nasdaq
Daily 
Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  6,983, TLU7, 7,134, 7,706
Potential support around 6,857, TLU6, 6,346, 6,261, TLU3, 6,061, TLU4, 5,952

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
TLU3, 1,649
Potential support around 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
04 Jun, Mon
  • 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
  • 1630 UK Construction PMI (May)
05 Jun, Tue
  • 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)  
  • 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement   
  • 1630 UK Services PMI (May)
  • 2100 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) 
  • 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)
06 Jun, Wed
  • 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
  • 2030 US Trade Balance
  • 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (May) 
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
07 Jun, Thu
  • 1700 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
  • 2315 Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
08 Jun, Fri
  • 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 1630 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) 
  • 2030 Canada Employment Change (May)