Monday, June 25, 2018

Dollar Index resisted at 95.0

Once again dollar index tested 95.0, failed to hold and closed lower with a -roc.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6




COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Jun 18

BDI down from 1445 (15 Jun) to 1341 (22 Jun)
Harpex closed higher at 678.10 (15 Jun) from 676.61 (08 Jun)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Soybean Oil
  • Gold
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • Oats
  • Crude (1)
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • Copper
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 23 Jun 18

US markets closed lower.  Dow and S&P broke hlf while Nasdaq and Russell closed with a doji.

Harpex closed higher.

Dollar index resisted at 95.0.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 25,483, 
25,784, 26,627, 26,976
Potential support around 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,825, 2,874
Potential support around  2,748, 2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 7,706
Potential support around 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
TLU3, 1,649
, 1,779
Potential support around 1,672, 1,624, 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
25 Jun, Mon
  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index  
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (May)
26 Jun, Tue
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) 
27 Jun, Wed
  • 1630 UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
  • 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

28 Jun, Thu
  • 0300 Canada BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 0500 New Nealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 0500 New Nealand RBNZ Rate Statement 
  • 0800 EU Leaders Summit (3 Days)
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
29 Jun, Fri
  • 1600 German Unemployment Change (Jun)
  • 1630 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
30 Jun, Sat
  • 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Jun)  

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Dollar Index tested 95.0 resistance

On the daily chart, dollar index formed an outside day on last 2nd day of the trading week, tested 95.0 resistance and failed to close above it.
On the weekly chart, it formed an outside day too.  If unable to break and closed above 95.0, may see selling ahead.
Resistance at 95.0, 96.3, 97.3, 98.7
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Jun 18

BDI surged from 1156 (01 Jun) to 1445 (15 Jun)
Harpex closed higher at 676.61 (08 Jun) from 673.62 (01 Jun)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Soybean Oil
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • one
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cotton
  • Copper
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 16 Jun 18

US markets closed mixed.  On the weekly chart, Dow closed lower with -roc, S&P closed with a -roc doji while Nasdaq and Russell created the historic high.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index tested 95.0 once again.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None



Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
25,784, 26,627, 26,976
Potential support around 25,843, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,786, 2,825, 2,874
Potential support around  2,748, 2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily 
UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 7,706
Potential support around 7,134, 6,982, TLU6, 6,857, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
TLU3, 1,649
, 1,779
Potential support around 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
18 Jun, Mon
  • No important event
19 Jun, Tue
  • 0130 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1600 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks     
  • 2030 US Building Permits (May)
20 Jun, Wed
  • 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 2130 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 2130 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks     
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (May)   
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
21 Jun, Thu
  • 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • 1530 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment    
  • 1600 Switzerland SNB Press Conference 
  • 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) 
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)  
22 Jun, Fri
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (May) 
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)   

Monday, June 11, 2018

No update of blog for this week

Due to my personal commitment, I will not be updating my blog for this week.

Here are the COT charts