Sunday, April 22, 2018

Dollar Index consolidating

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index formed an outside day.
Dollar index had been in consolidating since mid of Jan 18.  Expect explosive movement may be coming.
Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 93.0
Support at TLD2, 88.88, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD8, 86.5, 83.2, 79.0


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 Apr 18

BDI closed at 1281 (20 Apr) from 1014 (13 Apr).
Harpex pull back after testing Year 2015 high (645.82).  Harpex closed at 6421.61 (14 Apr) from 645.59 (07 Apr).

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Sugar (1)
  • Orange Juice
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Silver
Up Trend
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal
  • Gasoline
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 21 Apr 18

US markets closed higher this week.  On the weekly charts, US markets broke pwh but failed to sustain closed with a doji near to week low.  May see US markets break hlf, must not break and close below recent low to continue bullish.

Harpex failed to overcome year 2015 high.
Dollar Index consolidating.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU11, 24,847, TLD1, 25,507, 25,821, Lower 
Trend Channel (Blue), 25,956
Potential support around TLD1, 24,175,  23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776, TLU6, 22,121

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748, 2,800, TLU3, Lower Trend Channel (green), 2,874
Potential support around  TLD1, 2,593, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406

Nasdaq
Daily 
Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  TLU6, 6,983, TLU7, 7,134, 7,706
Potential support around 6,346, 6,261, TLU3, 6,061, TLU4, 5,952

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,586, 
1,609, TLU3, 1,649
Potential support around 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
23 Apr, Mon
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)  
24 Apr, Tue
  • 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)   
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (Mar) 
25 Apr, Wed
  • Australia and New Zealand holiday
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
26 Apr, Thu
  • 1945 Europe Deposit Facility Rate
  • 1945 Europe ECB Marginal Lending Facility 
  • 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) 
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)
  • 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference 
27 Apr, Fri
  • 1000 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
  • 1000 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)    
  • 1000 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 
  • 1000 Japan BoJ Press Conference
  • 1600 German Unemployment Change (Apr)  
  • 1630 UK GDP (YoY) (Q1) 
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)

Sunday, April 15, 2018

No update of blog for this week

Due to my work commitment, I will not be updating my blog for this week.

Here are the COT charts 


Download Commodities COT

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Dollar Index continues to consolidate

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke lhf and closed with a small +roc.
Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 93.0
Support at TLD2, 88.88, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD8, 86.5, 83.2, 79.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Apr 18

BDI broke 1,000 mark closing at 948 (06 Apr) from 1055 (29 Mar) 
Harpex testing Year 2015 high to close at 645.59 (31 Mar) from 635.16 (24 Mar).  The year 2015 high at 645.82.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Sugar (1)
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Silver
  • Orange Juice
Neutral
  • Crude (1)
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Soybean Meal
  • Gasoline
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 07 Apr 18

US markets broke pwl, recovered some losses and closed with a -roc.
Dow and S&P are consolidating.  Nasdaq and Russell testing support and closed above support.

Harpex testing year 2015 high.
Dollar Index consolidating.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,175, TLU11, TLD1, 25,507, 25,821, Lower 
Trend Channel (Blue), 25,956
Potential support around 23,567, 23,175, 22,776, TLU6, 22,121

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLD1, 2,748, 2,800, TLU3, Lower Trend Channel (green), 2,874
Potential support around  2,593, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  TLU6, 6,983, TLU7, 7,022, 
7,706
Potential support around 6,346, 6,261, TLU3, 6,061, TLU4, 5,952

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, 1,543, 1,566, 
1,609, TLU3, 1,649
Potential support around TLD1, 1,508, 1,494, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Apr, Mon
  • No important data
10 Apr, Tue
  • 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar) 
11 Apr, Wed
  • 0930 China CPI (Mar) 
  • 1630 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)
  • 1900 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
12 Apr, Thu
  • 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
13 Apr, Fri
  • 0300 UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)