Sunday, July 26, 2020

Dollar Index broke previous year low

Dollar Index broke and closed below previous year low.  Next strong support level is around 88.88.
Resistance at 95.0, TLD1, 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3
Support at 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 Jul 2020

BDI closed lower from 1,710 (17 Jul) to 1,317 (24 Jul)
Harpex closed higher to 463.10 (17 Jul) from 444.91 (10 Jul)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Oats (1)
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Soybean Meal
Up Trend
  • Corn
  • Gasoline
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 25 Jul 2020

On the weekly chart, US market broke the pwh (previous week high), reversed and closed lower with a -roc.

BDI closed lower, Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index broke the previous year low.

30 Jul (Thu) 2 AM SGT, US Fed Interest Rate Decision follow by FOMC Press Conference  

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Dow
  • S&P (1)
  • Russell
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 26,235, 27,350, 28,195
, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407
Potential support around 25,784, 25,336, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454
Potential support around 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825

Nasdaq
Daily UT
, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 10,595, 10,856, 11,318, 12,040
Potential support around 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196

Russell
Daily 
UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around
 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609
, 1,624, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)
27 Jul, Mon
  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul)
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
28 Jul, Tue
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
29 Jul, Wed
  • 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
  • 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
30 Jul, Thu
  • 0200 US FOMC Statement 
  • 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
  • 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 1555 German Unemployment Change (Jul)
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
31 Jul Aug, Fri
  • 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 0930 Australia Producer Price Index
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY)
  • 1700 Europe GDP (YoY)
  • 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (May)
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Dollar Index testing previous month low

Dollar Index testing previous month low and closed below 96.3 support.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7
Support at TLD1, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 Jul 2020

BDI closed lower for another week from 1,810 (10 Jul) to 1,710 (17 Jul)
Harpex closed higher to 444.91 (10 Jul) from 439.84 (03 Jul)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas (1)
Neutral
  • Oats (1)
  • Soybean Meal
  • Palladium
Up Trend
  • Corn
  • Gasoline
  • Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 18 Jul 2020

US market closed higher except for Nasdaq closed lower with a -roc outside day on a weekly chart.
On the weekly chart, S&P and Russell closed with a small +roc.

BDI closed lower, Harpex closed higher.

Dollar index testing previous month low.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Dow
  • S&P (1)
  • Russell
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 27,350, 28,195
, 28,730, 29,106, 29,407
Potential support around 26,245, 25,784, 25,336, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 3,303, 3,391, 3,454
Potential support around 3,219, 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825

Nasdaq
Daily UT
, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 10,856, 11,318, 12,040
Potential support around 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196

Russell
Daily 
UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around
 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609
, 1,624, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)
20 Jul, Mon
  • 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
21 Jul, Tue
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1030 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
22 Jul, Wed
  • 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
23 Jul, Thu
  • Japan Holiday
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
24 Jul, Fri
  • Japan Holiday
  • 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite
  • 1630 UK Composite PMI
  • 1630 UK Services PMI  
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (Jun)

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Dollar Index broke hlf

On the weekly chart, the Dollar index broke hlf, tested 96.3 support, recovered some of the losses before closing lower.
Resistance at 97.3, TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 96.3, TLD1,95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 Jul 2020

BDI closed lower from 1,894 (03 Jul) to 1,810 (10 Jul)
Harpex continues to close higher at 439.84 (03 Jul) from 431.79 (26 Jun)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas (1)
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Soybean Meal
  • Palladium
Up Trend
  • Oats (1)
  • Gasoline
  • Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 11 Jul 2020

The US market closed higher except for Russell closed lower.  
Nasdaq closed at a historic high
On the weekly chart, Russell closed lower with a +roc.
Russell is directionless for 4 weeks.

BDI closed lower, Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed lower.

Various countries will be releasing CPI data and making a decision on the Interest rate this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Dow
  • S&P (1)
  • Russell
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 27,350, 28,195
Potential support around 25,784, 25,336, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454
Potential support around 3,155, 3,072, 3,022, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825

Nasdaq
Daily UT
, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040
Potential support around 10,595, 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196

Russell
Daily 
UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around
 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609
Potential support around 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)
13 Jul, Mon
  • 2330 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
14 Jul, Tue
  • 1400 UK GDP (MoM)
  • 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May)
  • 1400 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
  • 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2130 Switzerland SNB's Chairman Jordan speech
15 Jul, Wed
  • 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
  • 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) 
  • 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference
  • 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
  • 2315 Canada BOC Press Conference  
16 Jul, Thu
  • 0645 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
  • 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
  • 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
  • 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May)
  • 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
  • 1945 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)
  • 1945 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement 
  • 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
  • 2030 Europe ECB Press Conference  
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
17 Jul, Fri
  • 0800 Europe EU Leaders Special Summit
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Sunday, July 5, 2020

Dollar Index broke lhf and closed lower

On the weekly chart, the Dollar index broke lhf, the gains were trimmed before closing lower with a small -roc.
Resistance at TLU4, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3, TLU1, 102.3, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 97.3, 96.3, TLD1,95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0

COT for Dollar Index
There will be no update on COT this week due to delay release date due to a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Market 04 Jul 2020

US market consolidating for 3 weeks except for Nasdaq created a historic high.

Dollar Index broke lhf and closed lower.

BDI climb higher for another week to 1,894 (03 Jul) from 1,749 (27 Jun)
Harpex continues to recover to 431.79 (26 Jun) from 418.96 (19 Jun)

There will be no update on COT this week due to delay release date due to a Federal holiday.

There is not a lot of important data releasing this week.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 27,350, 28,195
Potential support around 25,337, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 3,155, 3,219, 3,303, 3,391, 3,454
Potential support around 3,022, 3,072, 2,983, 2,940, 2,874, 2,854, 2,825, 2,814,  2,786

Nasdaq
Daily UT
, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 10,595, 11,318
Potential support around 10,206, 9,873, 9,723, 9,243, 8,781, 8,428, 8,196, 8,002, 7,859, 7,706

Russell
Daily 
UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around
 1,451, 1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609
Potential support around 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,259, 1,240, 1,213, 1,185, 1,164

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)
06 Jul, Mon
  • 1630 UK Construction PMI (Jun)
  • 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
07 Jul, Tue
  • 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
  • 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
  • 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (May)
  • 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun)
08 Jul, Wed
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
09 Jul, Thu
  • 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
10 Jul, Fri
  • 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2030 Canada Employment Change (Jun)