Sunday, July 27, 2014

Nikkei breaking soon?

Last weekend I have shared with my friends  ascending triangle on HSI and weekly diff.  This week HSI move higher due to China PMI Data.

This week ascending triangle found on Nikkei weekly chart and the chart look similar to HSI but the triangle had a more gentle slope.

I will monitor Nikkei more closely and it may break out this week or another 2-3 weeks more.

Diff is one of V3Go technique.  There is a Diff r/l (Resistance line) and Diff s/l (Support Line)

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Commodities Update - 25 Jul 14

BDI (Baltic Dry Index) hit a recent peak of 2337 on 12 Dec 13 to dropped to a low of 723 on 22Jul 14.  Recovered slightly to 739 on 25 Jul 14 but still consider weak.
This is the 2nd week that Coffee Arabica is picking up at a faster pace.
US Cocoa, Cocoa Bulk Bean (Traded in London), Cattle, Crude Oil West Texasand Copper price are going higher this week.
Soybean, Soybean Meal, Oats and Wheat seem to have stabilized this week.

Grains commodities continue to remain weak, if you want to trade, advisable to wait for 2ET.  Most soft commodities managed to have 1ET but after that trade even lower.  No doubt COT reports do show buying interest from producers but it is better to wait to avoid unnecessary stop loss.  

The list below are generated based on COT Index,  not signal to long or short but opportunity to go long or short if there is an entry signal.

Counters worth watching to go SHORT,
  • None

Counters worth watching to go LONG,
  • Sugar (2ET triggered 24 Jul, SL 17 Jul DL)
  • Corn (1ET triggered, go slow)
  • Wheat (1ET triggered, go slow)
  • Oats (1ET triggered, go slow)
  • Soybean  (1ET triggered, go slow)
  • Rough Rice  (Wait for 2ET, go slow)      
  • Orange Juice (Wait for 1ET)
  • Feeder Cattle (testing recent high, be caution before entry)
  • Lumber (Wait for 2ET, go slow)
  • Gasoline (Wait for 2ET, go slow)
  • Heating Oil (1ET triggered, go slow)
  • Copper (2ET triggered, testing recent high)
  • Silver (go slow)
  • Cotton (Wait for 2ET, consolidation and break down)
  • ET - V3Go entry technique
  • SL - Stop Loss
  • DL - Day Low
  • DH - Day High

Indices Performance Chart - 25 Jul 14

Every week (if possible), I will take a look and compare how each region is performing.

In Asia, HK, HK China H-shares and China A50 surge up this week.  Expecting to see some pull back or consolidation for few days before moving higher.  This could be the starting point of trend reversals for China.  As long as the markets is not falling back to 18 Jul 14 level, the markets are healthy.

Due to the limitation of the charting platform, the starting date will change