Commodities Potential Trade - Follow up

Follow up from Commodities Potential Trade posting on 31 Jan 21

Rough Rice retraced, tested support and consolidating

Sugar continues to trade higher

Commodities Potential Trade

 Rough Rice broke out from consolidation

Sugar broke out and on an uptrend in the daily chart.

Potential Trade

May monitor these 4 pairs for potential to trade.
Always have SL in place, nothing is for sure.

Dollar Index closed lower

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke hlf and closed lower.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Potential trade to monitor

• a) GBPUSD - Movement getting smaller for 5 weeks, possible of big movement breakout.  

• b) USDSGD - Trading sideways since end of Jan.  Trade within the range follow by break out if any.

Commodities Update 02 Jun 18

BDI clsoed at 1156 (01 Jun) from 1077 (25 May)
Harpex closed high at 670.64 (25 May) from 661.10 (19 May)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Oil
• Platinum

Neutral

• one

Up Trend

• Natural Gas
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Wheat
• Soybean Meal
• Cocoa
• Cotton
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Mar 2018 posted on Monitoring Coffee and Orange

Coffee seems supported for the moment.

Orange juice tested another resistance level and pull back.  Had taken partial profit.

Commodities Update 19 May 18

BDI slide down to 1273 (18 May) from 1472 (11 May)
Harpex closed higher for another week at 656.63 (12 May) from 653.64 (05 May) 

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Oil
• Platinum

Neutral

• Silver

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Cocoa
• Cotton
• Rough Rice
• Gasoline
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Soybean Meal

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Mar 2018 posted on Monitoring Coffee and Orange

Coffee seems supported for the moment.

Orange juice tested another resistance level and pull back.  Had taken partial profit.

Commodities Update 12 May 18

BDI climbed higher to 1472 (11 May) from 1384 (4 May)
Harpex edged higher 653.64 (05 May) from 652.45 (28 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Platinum

Neutral

• Silver

Up Trend

• Natural Gas (1)
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Cocoa
• Cotton
• Rough Rice
• Gasoline
• Lumber

Neutral

• Soybean Meal

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Mar 2018 posted on Monitoring Coffee and Orange

Coffee continues to pull back.  It must not break recent low to continue the positive sentiment.

Orange juice tested and closed above the 2nd resistance level.

Commodities Update 05 May 18

BDI edged higher to 1384 (4 May) from 1361 (27 Apr)
Harpex continues to climb higher to 652.45 (28 Apr) from 646.19 (21 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil
• Platinum

Neutral

• Natural Gas (1)
• Silver

Up Trend

• Coffee
• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Cocoa
• Cotton
• Rough Rice
• Gasoline
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Mar 2018 posted on Monitoring Coffee and Orange

Coffee had tested the 2nd resistance (123) and broke hlf.

Orange Juice had closed with an outside on the daily chart.  Potential of a new trend.

Will closed 80% of the positions if the new trend is down.

Commodities Update 28 Apr 18

BDI rasied to 1361 (27 Apr) from 1281 (20 Apr).
Harpex broke Year 2015 high (645.82) to close at 646.19 )21 Apr) from 6421.61 (14 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee
• Sugar (1)
• Soybean Oil

Neutral

• Natural Gas (1)
• Orange Juice
• Silver

Up Trend

• Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Soybean Meal
• Rough Rice
• Gasoline
• Lumber

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Mar 2018 posted on Monitoring Coffee and Orange

Orange Juice is moving up nicely.  Fri closed with a -roc, just beware.
Potential resistance around 151.6, 167.7

Coffee broke lhf 2 ET on Fri and broke out.
Potential resistance around 121, 123, 127, 128, 137

Monitor to short metals

Metals COT buying interested is decreasing.  Based on LW's theory (COT <=10) , may look for short if the trend is down.  Silver COT selling interest is in the extreme but trend is not in favour, therefore will need to wait.  Gold COT had slightly increased from 10 to 20 in the month of Jul.  May monitor metals to short after the change of trend.

Looking to short Gold

Looking to short gold small if break hlf, 
1) hlf 2ET
2) COT buying interest for dealer extreme -ve while others extreme +ve
3) below Diff

Size small because is UT

Silver COT selling interest at extreme

Silver COT selling interest at extreme while Gold buying interest decreased sharply.
COT raw data for Silver show an increased of short positions for Processor and decreased for long positions  while COT raw data for Gold show no of short positions for Processor and Swap Dealer increased much more than long positions

Precious metal is a safe heaven for traders and investors.  Silver is in selling extreme region, will Gold follow?  From the above chart, there is a high probability.  Traders may be in the process of moving their fund out from precious metal as safe heaven and re-position to stock markets?  Since COT for US markets and Nikkei are at or near to buying extreme

From the above weekly chart, Gold and silver had broke out from the DT channel.  To ride the wave down, need to wait more concrete signal to increase the probability of profitable trade. If break down and closed below the week low (last 2nd bar from the right, green arrow) will be a one of the confirmation signal to short.

Forex - 24 Oct 15

As per my last Forex posting (30 Aug 15) to monitor some of the major pairs, potential trade may be coming, watch for it

USDCHF
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Testing upper band of symmetrical triangle, potential for a breakout. Better to have signal confirmation for a break down,

EURUSD
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Tested and closed below lower band of ascending triangle. Better to have signal confirmation for a break down,

GBP/USD
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Forming symmetrical triangle, monitor for potential break down

Potential Trade

Orange Juice
DT
Broke out from symmetrical triangle, the low is getting higher, formed an outside day, COT buying interest increasing

Sugar Raw
DT
Closed with outside day, waiting for break out, COT buying interest at extreme

Natural Gas
DT
DT and follow by consolidating between 2.60 and 2.93, waiting for break out, COT buying interest increasing.  Immediate support around 2.63

Oats
DT
Break out from DT channel, forming outside day bar, COT buying interest at extreme, waiting for confirmation, may long small using daily chart when break lhf on 2ET onwards.

Potential Trade

May monitor the above commodities for potential big movement

Soybean Oil
Although  COT selling interest is at extreme, price is consolidating since Jul 14 and broke trend  resistance.  If next 2 weeks price can maintain above the MA and trend resistance, I may look for potential entry

Heating Oil
COT selling interest is getting more but yet to hit extreme.  currently forming symmetrical triangle, waiting for break out or break down

Gasoline, Coffee Arabica and Cotton
In consolidating mode and broke trend resistance, waiting for clearer signal

Potential Trade (30 May 15)

Gold and Silver
Daily UT, Weekly DT
After the sell down on Tue, a new diff is formed and small range for last few days.  COT little change
Gold

• potential Resistance 1,207, 1,212, and 1,225
• potential Support 1,184, 1,178 and 1,149

Silver

• potential Resistance 17.13, 17.71, 17.78 and 18.00
• potential Support 16.68, 16.55 and 16.32

Platinum
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
After the sell down on Tue, it continue to go lower for next 2 days.  The next support level is 1,093
potential Resistance 1,126, 1,150, and 1,164
potential Support 1,093

Palladium
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
In consolidation mode and forming symmetrical triangle.  Waiting for break out or break down.  Little change on COT.
potential Resistance 800, 8192, and 831
potential Support 770, 754 and 727

Copper
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Continue to go lower, pierce theur strong support 275 on Fri, next support level is 265.3.  COT selling interest rebounded strongly but still at extreme.
potential Resistance 280, 289 and 295
potential Support 265 and 252

Gasoline
UT, pierce thru channel support, broke lhf and rebounded.  Still within the consolidating range.  To continue with more upside, need to break 2.102 and close above for 2-3 days
potential Resistance 2.102 and 2.176
potential Support 1.985 (strong support) and 1.938

Wheat
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke Diff on Tue and continue to trade lower, broke trend resistance.  No sign of picking up yet.  SL was triggered
potential Resistance 480, 489 and 507
potential Support 470 and 463

Soybean Oil
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Formed new diff and rebounded strong on Fri.  Did not hit tp, took smaller profit
potential Resistance 33.52 and 34.60
potential Support 32.34, 31.57 and 31.30

Coffee Arabica
DT.  Looking to long on breaking next Diff. Seem trend supported. COT buying interest at extreme.  Size: Small

Cotton
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support or trend support
potential Resistance 65.01 and 65.83
potential Support 63.12 and 62.17

Potential Trade (23 May 15)

Gold, Silver and Platinum
Daily UT, Weekly DT
After moving higher to test resistance on Mon (18 May), sharp pulled back on Tue (19 May)  and consolidating around support region COT buying interest for Gold and Silver decreased sharply for this week
Gold

• potential Resistance 1,212, 1,222, 1,232 and 1,266
• potential Support 1,193, 1,184 and 1,170

Silver

• potential Resistance 17.19, 17.47, 17.78 and 18.00
• potential Support 17.09, 16.68, 16.45 and 16.32

Platinum

• potential Resistance 1,164, 1,177 and 1,187
• potential Support 1,142, 1,122 and 1,093

Copper
Daily UT, Weekly DT,
Copper down by 5% this week and pierce thru 280 support.  COT selling interest is at extreme.
potential Resistance 280, 289 and 295
potential Support 275 (strong support) and 265

Wheat
Daily UT, Weekly DT
New Diff formed. Took profit on Tue and enter again on Thur when broke lhf.
potential Resistance 520, 529 and 536
potential Support 507, 489 and 480

Soybean Oil
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Broke Diff SL on Mon and tested again Tue.  Fri formed hlf 2ET.
Looking to take partial when hit 31.30 and 30.80 or broke pdh
potential Resistance 32.34 and 32.67
potential Support 31.30, 30.80 and 30.37

Coffee Arabica
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
looking to long on breaking next lhf. Size: Small

Gasoline
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support
Consolidating for 4 weeks, thur and fri closed above daily and weekly Diff. 
potential Resistance 2.102 and 2.176
potential Support 1.985 (strong support) and 1.938

Cotton
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support or trend support
Long on Thur when broke lhf, we closed with doji and sl was triggered on Fri.
potential Resistance 64.38 and 65.01
potential Support 62.53 and 62.17

Orange Juice
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
COT buying interest at extreme, MA turning from DT to neutral
Will goes small and short term trade on lhf 2et
potential Resistance 120.3, 123.7 and 129.7
potential Support 111.5, 108.2 and 105.0

Potential Trade (16 May 15)

Gold, Silver and Platinum
Gold, Silver and Platinum break out of Symmetrical triangle
Gold break out from dt channel
Gold

• potential Resistance 1,233 and 1,266
• potential Support 1,212 and 1,912

Silver

• potential Resistance 18.00 and 18.33
• potential Support 17.18 and 16.68

Platinum

• potential Resistance 1,177 and 1,187
• potential Support 12143 and 1,122

Copper
Daily UT, Weekly DT, looking to short when break pwl, sideway for 2 weeks, COT selling interest at extreme

Wheat
Neutral, looking to take profit if break pdl and to long on breaking next lhf

Soybean Oil
UT, looking to short, COT selling interest at extreme. Size: Small
      Fri formed outside day but closed within Diff.  Will short when goes below Diff.

Coffee Arabica
DT, looking to long on breaking next lhf. COT buying interest at extreme.  Size: Small

Gasoline
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support

Cotton
UT, looking to long after retracement to channel support or trend support

Potential Trade (09 May 15)

Gold, Silver and Platinum
Symmetrical triangle form in Silver and Platinum looking for break down or break out.  Gold seem to have Symmetrical triangle too.
Gold COT buying interest is increasing yet to hit above 90
Silver and Platinum COT buying interest decreased last week after few weeks of increasing

Copper
DT, looking to short when break pwl, COT buying interest decreasing sharply

Wheat
DT, looking to long when break pdh (2ET), COT above 90.Size: Small

Soybean Oil
UT, looking to short, COT below 10. Size: Small

Coffee Arabica
DT, looking to long but waiting for lhf 2ET. COT above 90. Size: Small

Sugar Raw
DT, looking for swing trade, within the range 12.5 to 13.4

Potential Trade (26 Apr 15)

BDI is yet to pick up, I will continue to goes small and slow when long

Wheat
Neutral, Long on 21 Apr, SL triggered on 24 Apr

Gasoline
UT, Add Long pos on 23 Apr
Long on 15 Apr, took partial on 20 Apr

Heating Oil
UT, Long on 23 Apr
Long on 10 Apr, closed on 20 Apr

Cotton
UT, will long on lhf break, COT picking up again

Sugar Raw
DT, Long on 8 Apr, add pos on 14 Apr, closed on 20 Apr

Copper
UT, Will long on lhf 2ET, COT picking up

Coffee Arabica
DT,  Long on 16 Apr, closed on 20 Apr
       Long on 21 Apr

Palladium
DT, Short on 20 Apr, took partial on 22 Apr (testing Taos SL)

Cocoa Bulk Bean (UK)
From UT to Neutral, No trade, wait for clearer sign

Silver
DT, Short on 14 Apr, add short pos on 20 Apr
Will close position if closed above Diff RL