US Markets 27 Jun 26

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and Russell closed at a historic highs, the S&P and Nasdaq closed lower.

While CCFI closed higher, Harpex remained unchanged, and BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Speech by the new Fed Governor Warsh
• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• US NFP
• The US market closed on Fri due to a holiday

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,458, 7,693

Potential support around 7,222, 6,987, 6,751

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Jun, Mon

• No important data

30 Jun, Tue

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Jun) ^P
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (May)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

01 Jul, Wed

• Canada and Hong Kong on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun) ^P
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) ^P
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 2100 US Fed Governor Warsh Speaks 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Jul, Thu

• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls  (Jun)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate  (Jun)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 Jul, Fri

• US on holiday

Commodities Update 27 Jun 26

BDI closed lower from 2,722 (19 Jun) to 2,524 (26 Jun)

Harpex unchanged at 2,327 (26 Jun)

CDFI closed lower from 1,435.69 (18 Jun) to 1,364.1 (26 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 1,599.07 (18 Jun) to 1,710.47 (26 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Heating Oil (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 20 Jun 26

The US market closed higher. The Dow and Russell closed at a historic highs.

BDI closed lower from 2,729 (12 Jun) to 2,722 (19 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 2,324 (12 Jun) to 2,327 (19 Jun)

CDFI closed lower  from 1,520.02 (12 Jun) to 1,435.69 (18 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 1,480.11 (12 Jun) to 1,599.07 (18 Jun)

The dollar index broke out of the consolidation and the 100.3 resistance level, closing higher in an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Preliminary release of Manufacturing and services PMI by multiple countries
• US GDP

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 30,100, 29,378, 28,655

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Jun, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada CPI (YoY) (May)

23 Jun, Tue

• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly  
• 2154 US UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 2154 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P

24 Jun, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (May)
• 1600 Germany Business Expectations (Jun)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Jun, Thu

• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) ^P
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

26 Jun, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun)

Note

• ^P: Preliminary Release

Dollar Index broke the resistance levels

The dollar index broke out of the consolidation and the 100.3 resistance level, closing higher with an outside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 13 Jun 26

The US market closed higher. The Dow and Russell closed at a historic highs.

While CCFI and Harpex closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index tested the 100.3 resistance level, failed to hold, and pulled back to close lower.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decision by Japan, Australia, the US, Switzerland and the UK
• Short trading week for Australia, China, Hong Kong and the US.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,458, 7,693

Potential support around 7,222, 6,987, 6,751

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around  29,378, 28,655, 27,933

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  2,951, 3,081

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Jun, Mon

• Australia on holiday
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index  (Jun)

16 Jun, Tue

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly 
• 2030 US Housing Starts (May)
• 2030 US Building Permits (May) ^P

17 Jun, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Jun, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision  
• 0200 US FOMC Statement
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 1530 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index  (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

19 Jun, Fri

• China, Hong Kong and the US on holiday
• 0750 Japan National CPI (MoM) (May)
• 0750 Japan National Core CPI (MoM) (May)

Note

• ^P: Preliminary Release