US Markets 24 Oct 26

The US market closed mixed. The Dow and Russell closed higher, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed lower, and the trend has turned down.

The dollar index edged lower; it closed below the 200 MA on the weekly chart.

While BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed higher, CCFI closed lower.

Watch out for

• New Zealand, Canada, US, Europe and Japan Interest rate decisions.
• Preliminary release of GDP from the US, Europe and Germany

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693, 7,929

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,82

Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,821, 2,951, 3,081

Potential support around 2,691, 2,561, 2,430

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Oct, Mon

• New Zealand on holiday

27 Oct, Tue

• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) ^P
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) ^P
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Sep)

28 Oct, Wed

• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2030 UK Autumn Forecast Statement  
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Oct, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 
• 0200 US FOMC Statement 
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) ^P
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2115 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Oct)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

30 Oct, Fri

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1700 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q3) ^P
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q3) ^P
• 2100 Germany CPI (MoM) (Oct)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Oct)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 24 Oct 26

BDI reversed to close higher, from 2,511 (16 Oct) to 2,660 (23 Oct)

Harpex closed higher, from 2,468 (16 Oct) to 2,525 (23 Oct)

CDFI reversed to close higher, from 1,489.48 (16 Oct) to 1,603.76 (23 Oct)

CCFI reversed to close lower, from 1,922.64 (16 Oct) to 1,876.27 (23 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Gold (1)
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index edged lower

The dollar index edged lower, closing below the 200-period MA on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 17 Oct 26

The US market closed lower, except for the Dow, which closed higher. 

The dollar index tested the 102.3 resistance level but failed to overcome it. It closed below the 200 MA on the weekly chart with an outside day.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, CCFI closed higher, and Harpex remained unchanged.

Watch out for

• Preliminary Release of manufacturing and services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693, 7,929

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,82

Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,821, 2,951, 3,081

Potential support around 2,691, 2,561, 2,430

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Oct, Mon

• Hong Kong on holiday
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

20 Oct, Tue

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Aug)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Aug)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment  (Oct)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment  (Oct)
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Sep)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Sep) ^P

21 Oct, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Oct, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

23 Oct, Fri

• 0730 Japan National CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Oct) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Oct) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) ^P
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 17 Oct 26

BDI closed lower, from 2,917 (09 Oct) to 2,511 (16 Oct)

Harpex remained unchanged at 2,468 (16 Oct)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,599.97 (09 Oct) to 1,489.48 (16 Oct)

CCFI reversed to close higher, from 1,912.38 (09 Oct) to 1,922.64 (16 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Coffee

Neutral

• Silver
• Platinum (1)
• Gold

Up Trend

• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close lower

The dollar index tested the 102.3 resistance level but failed to overcome it. It closed below the 200 MA on the weekly chart with an outside day.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA