US Markets 10 Oct 26

The US market closed higher, except for Russell, which closed lower. S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

The dollar index closed higher. It closed above the 200 MA on the weekly chart but below the 102.3 resistance level.

While Harpex closed higher, BDI, CCFI  and CDFI closed lower.

Watch out for

• China, Europe and US CPI data
• Speech by Fed Chair Warsh

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,929

Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 31,545

Potential support around 30,822, 30,100, 29,378

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,821, 2,951, 3,081

Potential support around 2,691, 2,561, 2,430

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Oct, Mon

• Japan and Canada on holiday

13 Oct, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)

14 Oct, Wed

• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Sep)

15 Oct, Thu

• 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index  (Oct)

16 Oct, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 1130 US Fed Chair Warsh Speaks  
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)

Commodities Update 10 Oct 26

BDI continued to close lower, from 3,148 (02 Oct) to 2,917 (09 Oct)

Harpex closed higher, from 2,456 (02 Oct) to 2,468 (09 Oct)

CDFI continued to close lower, from 1,636.90 (30 Sep) to 1,599.97 (09 Oct)

CCFI reversed to close lower, from 1,923.93 (30 Sep) to 1,912.38 (09 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Silver
• Platinum (1)
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index closed higher. It closed above the 200 MA on the weekly chart but below the 102.3 resistance level.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 03 Oct 26

The US market closed lower, except for the Nasdaq, which closed at the historic high.

The dollar index closed higher. It tested the weekly 200 MA resistance and closed below.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

Watch out for

• China short trading week
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,929

Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 30,100, 29,378, 28,655

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951, 3,081, 3,212

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Oct, Mon

• China on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

06 Oct, Tue

• China on holiday
• 2145 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

07 Oct, Wed

• China on holiday
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Oct, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Oct, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction 
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) ^P

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 03 Oct 26

BDI reversed to close lower, from 3,426 (25 Sep) to 3,148 (02 Oct)

Harpex closed higher, from 2,450 (25 Sep) to 2,456 (02 Oct)

CDFI reversed to close lower, from 1,761.82 (24 Sep) to 1,636.90 (30 Sep)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,917.68 (24 Sep) to 1,923.93 (30 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Coffee (1)

Neutral

• Cocoa

Up Trend

• Silver
• Platinum (1)
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Corn
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index closed higher. It tested the weekly 200 MA resistance and closed below.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA