Sunday, October 18, 2026

US Markets 17 Oct 26

The US market closed lower, except for the Dow, which closed higher. 

The dollar index tested the 102.3 resistance level but failed to overcome it. It closed below the 200 MA on the weekly chart with an outside day.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, CCFI closed higher, and Harpex remained unchanged.

Watch out for

  • Preliminary Release of manufacturing and services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • Dow
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792
Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,693, 7,929
Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT
, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,82
Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily DT
Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,821, 2,951, 3,081
Potential support around 2,691, 2,561, 2,430

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Oct, Mon

  • Hong Kong on holiday
  • 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
  • 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

20 Oct, Tue

  • 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
  • 1400 Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Aug)
  • 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Aug)
  • 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment  (Oct)
  • 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment  (Oct)
  • 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
  • 2030 US Housing Starts (Sep)
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Sep) ^P

21 Oct, Wed

  • 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

22 Oct, Thu

  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

23 Oct, Fri

  • 0730 Japan National CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 0730 Japan National Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) ^P
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 17 Oct 26

BDI closed lower, from 2,917 (09 Oct) to 2,511 (16 Oct)

Harpex remained unchanged at 2,468 (16 Oct)

CDFI closed lower, from 1,599.97 (09 Oct) to 1,489.48 (16 Oct)

CCFI reversed to close higher, from 1,912.38 (09 Oct) to 1,922.64 (16 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Lumber (1)
  • Coffee
Neutral
  • Silver
  • Platinum (1)
  • Gold
Up Trend
  • Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Sugar
  • Soybean Meal
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close lower

The dollar index tested the 102.3 resistance level but failed to overcome it. It closed below the 200 MA on the weekly chart with an outside day.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7


COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Sunday, October 11, 2026

US Markets 10 Oct 26

The US market closed higher, except for Russell, which closed lower. S&P and Nasdaq closed at historic highs.

The dollar index closed higher. It closed above the 200 MA on the weekly chart but below the 102.3 resistance level.

While Harpex closed higher, BDI, CCFI  and CDFI closed lower.

Watch out for

  • China, Europe and US CPI data
  • Speech by Fed Chair Warsh

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • Dow
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792
Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,929
Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily UT
, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,545
Potential support around 30,822, 30,100, 29,378

Russell
Daily DT
Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,821, 2,951, 3,081
Potential support around 2,691, 2,561, 2,430

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Oct, Mon

  • Japan and Canada on holiday

13 Oct, Tue

  • 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Sep)

14 Oct, Wed

  • 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Sep)
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Sep)

15 Oct, Thu

  • 0830 Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep)
  • 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Aug)
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index  (Oct)

16 Oct, Fri

  • 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 1130 US Fed Chair Warsh Speaks  
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)

Commodities Update 10 Oct 26

BDI continued to close lower, from 3,148 (02 Oct) to 2,917 (09 Oct)

Harpex closed higher, from 2,456 (02 Oct) to 2,468 (09 Oct)

CDFI continued to close lower, from 1,636.90 (30 Sep) to 1,599.97 (09 Oct)

CCFI reversed to close lower, from 1,923.93 (30 Sep) to 1,912.38 (09 Oct)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Lumber (1)
  • Coffee
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Silver
  • Platinum (1)
  • Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Sugar
  • Soybean Meal
  • Soybeans
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index closed higher. It closed above the 200 MA on the weekly chart but below the 102.3 resistance level.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA