Dollar Index broke out

The dollar index broke out of consolidation, rallied and closed higher.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLD2, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Apr 2024

BDI closed higher from 1,628 (05 Apr) to 1,729 (12 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,229 (05 Apr) to 1,230 (12 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,206.7 (03 Apr) to 1,239.42 (12 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,191.37 (03 Apr) to 1,185.13 (12 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans 
• Wheat
• Sugar 
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 13 Apr 24

The US market broke the previous week's low and closed lower, except the Nasdaq closed lower with an inside day.
The Nasdaq is consolidating.

While BDI and CDFI rebounded to close higher, Harpex continued to close higher, and CCFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index broke out of consolidation, rallied and closed higher.

Watch out for

• Multiple countries are reporting Retail Sales and CPI data
• China GDP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Apr, Mon

• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

16 Apr, Tue

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 1000 China Industrial Production YoY (Mar)
• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Feb)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Apr)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Mar) 
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada CPI (YoY) (Mar)

17 Apr, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Apr, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)

19 Apr, Fri

• 0730 Japan National CPI (MoM)
• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (MoM)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart. It tested TLD2 support and closed above it.
Resistance at 106.7, TLU2, 109.7
Support at TLD2, 103.6, 102.3, TLU1, TLD1, 100.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Apr 2024

BDI closed lower from 1,821 (28 Mar) to 1,628 (05 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,220 (29 Mar) to 1,229 (05 Apr)

CDFI closed lower from 1,252.27 (29 Mar) to 1,206.7 (03 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 1,208.42 (29 Mar) to 1,191.37 (03 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Meal
• Soybeans 
• Wheat

Neutral

• Sugar

Up Trend

• Orange Juice
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

US Markets 06 Apr 24

The US market broke the higher-low formation on the weekly chart and closed lower.
The Nasdaq closed with an outside day on the weekly chart.

While Harpex continued to close higher, BDI, CCFI, and CDFI continued to close lower.

The dollar index closed lower with an outside day on the weekly chart.
It tested TLD2 support and closed above it.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions by New Zealand, Canada and Europe
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• S&P

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 39,754, 41,884

Potential support around 37,625, 35,495, 33,365, 31,236

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 5,338

Potential support around 5,103, 4,867, 4,632, 4,396, 4,161

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,542

Potential support around 17,819, 17,097, 16,374, 15,652

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Apr, Mon

• No important data

09 Apr, Tue

• No important data

10 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Apr, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Apr)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference

12 Apr, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction
• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 1400 German CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)