US Markets 04 Jul 26

The US market closed higher, except for Russell, which closed lower. The Dow closed at a historic high.

BDI reversed to close higher from 2,524 (26 Jun) to 2,717 (03 Jul)

Harpex unchanged at 2,327 (04 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,364.1 (26 Jun) to 1,394.88 (04 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 1,710.47 (26 Jun) to 1,811.15 (04 Jul)

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• China and Germany CPI data

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 54,662

Potential support around 52,533, 50,403, 48,273

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 29,378, 28,655, 27,933

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 Jul, Mon

• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

07 Jul, Tue

• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun)

08 Jul, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Jul, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction  
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)

10 Jul, Fri

• New Zealand on holiday
• 0101 US 30-Year Bond Auction  
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 27 Jun 26

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and Russell closed at a historic highs, the S&P and Nasdaq closed lower.

While CCFI closed higher, Harpex remained unchanged, and BDI and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Speech by the new Fed Governor Warsh
• Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• US NFP
• The US market closed on Fri due to a holiday

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,458, 7,693

Potential support around 7,222, 6,987, 6,751

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

29 Jun, Mon

• No important data

30 Jun, Tue

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2000 German CPI (MoM) (Jun) ^P
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (May)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

01 Jul, Wed

• Canada and Hong Kong on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun) ^P
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) ^P
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
• 2100 US Fed Governor Warsh Speaks 
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI  (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Jul, Thu

• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls  (Jun)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate  (Jun)
• 2030 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

03 Jul, Fri

• US on holiday

Commodities Update 27 Jun 26

BDI closed lower from 2,722 (19 Jun) to 2,524 (26 Jun)

Harpex unchanged at 2,327 (26 Jun)

CDFI closed lower from 1,435.69 (18 Jun) to 1,364.1 (26 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 1,599.07 (18 Jun) to 1,710.47 (26 Jun)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Coffee
• Gold (1)
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Heating Oil (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index continued to close higher.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 20 Jun 26

The US market closed higher. The Dow and Russell closed at a historic highs.

BDI closed lower from 2,729 (12 Jun) to 2,722 (19 Jun)

Harpex closed higher from 2,324 (12 Jun) to 2,327 (19 Jun)

CDFI closed lower  from 1,520.02 (12 Jun) to 1,435.69 (18 Jun)

CCFI closed higher from 1,480.11 (12 Jun) to 1,599.07 (18 Jun)

The dollar index broke out of the consolidation and the 100.3 resistance level, closing higher in an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Preliminary release of Manufacturing and services PMI by multiple countries
• US GDP

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 30,100, 29,378, 28,655

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Jun, Mon

• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada CPI (YoY) (May)

23 Jun, Tue

• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly  
• 2154 US UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) ^P
• 2154 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) ^P

24 Jun, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (May)
• 1600 Germany Business Expectations (Jun)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (May)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Jun, Thu

• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) ^P
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

26 Jun, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun)

Note

• ^P: Preliminary Release