US Markets 31 Jan 26

The US market closed lower, except the S&P closed higher on the weekly chart.

While BDI and CDFI continued to close higher, CCFI closed lower, and Harpex remained unchanged.

The dollar index slumped and recovered most of the losses before closing lower.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decisions by Australia, the UK and Europe.
• Manufacturing and Services PMI data from multiple countries
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 50,403

Potential support around 48,273, 46,144, 44,014

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,987, 7,222

Potential support around 6,751, 6,516, 6,280, 6,045

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 25,766, 26,488

Potential support around 25,043, 24,321, 23,598

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,691, 2,821

Potential support around 2,561, 2,430, 2,300

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 Feb, Mon

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jan)
• 1655 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2245 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI  (Jan)

03 Feb, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2300 US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)

04 Feb, Wed

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jan)
• 1655 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jan)
• 1700 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 1800 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2245 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

05 Feb, Thu

• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2115 Deposit Facility Rate  (Feb)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference  

06 Feb, Fri

• New Zealand on holiday
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb)

Commodities Update 31 Jan 26

BDI continued to close higher from 1,762 (23 Jan) to 2,148 (30 Jan)

Harpex remained at 2,184 (30 Jan)

CDFI continued to close higher from 977.48 (23 Jan) to 1,080.15 (30 Jan)

CCFI continued to close lower from 1,208.75 (23 Jan) to 1,175.59 (30 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Crude
• Rough Rice
• Sugar
• Platinum (1)
• Silver (1)
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index slumped and recovered losses

The dollar index slumped and recovered most of the losses before closing lower.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 24 Jan 26

The US market closed lower. The S&P and Nasdaq are consolidating.

While BDI and CDFI reversed to close higher, CCFI reversed to close lower, and Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index broke its previous week's high, reversed, and slumped, forming an outside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decision by Canada and the US
• China NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 50,403

Potential support around 48,273, 46,144, 44,014

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 6,987, 7,222

Potential support around 6,751, 6,516, 6,280, 6,045

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 25,766, 26,488

Potential support around 25,043, 24,321, 23,598

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,691, 2,821

Potential support around 2,561, 2,430, 2,300

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Jan, Mon

• Australia on holiday
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
• 2130 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) 

27 Jan, Tue

• No important event

28 Jan, Wed

• 0750 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 0830 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q4)
• 2245 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 
• 2330 Canada BOC Press Conference  
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Jan, Thu

• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision  
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

30 Jan, Fri

• 0730 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 0730 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
• 1700 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1800 Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2100 Europe German CPI (MoM) (Jan)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Core PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 2245 US Chicago PMI  (Jan)

31 Jan,  Sat

• 0930 China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 0930 China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Commodities Update 24 Jan 26

BDI reversed to close higher from 1,567 (16 Jan) to 1,762 (23 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 2,182 (16 Jan) to 2,184 (23 Jan)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 922.65 (16 Jan) to 977.48 (23 Jan)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,209.85 (16 Jan) to 1,208.75 (23 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Cocoa
• Cotton

Neutral

• Soybean Meal
• Rough Rice
• Crude

Up Trend

• Soybean Oil
• Sugar
• Orange Juice
• Platinum (1)
• Silver (1)
• Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Palladium
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index Slumped

The dollar index broke its previous week's high, reversed, and slumped, forming an outside day on the weekly chart. 
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, 99.8, 100.3
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA