US Markets 22 Aug 26

The US market broke the previous week's low and closed lower. Nasdaq daily trend turned up.

After testing 99.8 resistance twice over the last two weeks, the dollar index continued to close lower, slightly above the 98.7 support level.

While BDI and CCFI closed lower, Harpex and CDFI closed higher.

Watch out for

• US GDP
• Jackson Hole Symposium 
• Speech by Fed Warsh

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 52,533, 50,403, 48,273

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693, 7,929

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,081, 3,212

Potential support around 2,951,  2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

24 Aug, Mon

• No important data

25 Aug, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 
• 1400 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jul)

26 Aug, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (Jul)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ^P
• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) ^P
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

27 Aug, Thu

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

28 Aug, Fri

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium 
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
• 2200 US Fed Warsh Speaks

29 Aug, Sat

• 0800 US Jackson Hole Symposium 

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 22 Aug 26

BDI continued to close lower from 2,863 (14 Aug) to 2,841 (21 Aug)

Harpex closed higher from 2,346 (14 Aug) to 2,380 (21 Aug)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,543.23 (14 Aug) to 1,555.47 (21 Aug)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,846.96 (14 Aug) to 1,821.65 (21 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber

Neutral

• Gold
• Silver
• Platinum (1)

Up Trend

• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cotton
• Wheat
• Sugar

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed lower

After testing 99.8 resistance twice over the last two weeks, the dollar index continued to close lower, slightly above the 98.7 support level.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at  98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 15 Aug 26

The US market closed higher, except for the Dow, which closed lower. The S&P and Russell hit historic highs. Nasdaq daily trend turned to neutral.

The dollar index broke and closed below the 99.8 support level.

While BDI and CDFI closed lower, CCFI closed higher, and Harpex remained unchanged.

Watch out for

• US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• Preliminary release of Manufacturing and Services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• Nasdaq (1)

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 52,533, 50,403, 48,273

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,929

Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,100, 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 229,378, 28,655, 7,933

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,081, 3,212

Potential support around 2,951,  2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

17 Aug, Mon

• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ^P
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)

18 Aug, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 1400 UK Employment Change
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
• 2030 US Housing Starts (Jul)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jul) ^P

19 Aug, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

20 Aug, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

21 Aug, Fri

• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) ^P
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Aug) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Aug) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Aug) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) ^P
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) ^P
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) ^P
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) ^P

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 15 Aug 26

BDI reversed to close lower from 3,089 (07 Aug) to 2,863 (14 Aug)

Harpex remained the same at 2,346(14 Aug)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,608.18 (07 Aug) to 1,543.23 (14 Aug)

CCFI reversed to close higher from 1,839.61 (07 Aug) to 1,846.96 (14 Aug)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Silver
• Platinum (1)

Neutral

• Lumber

Up Trend

• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Cotton

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index closed higher

The dollar index tested and closed below the 99.8 resistance level.
Resistance at 99.8, 100.3, 102.3
Support at  98.7, 97.3, 96.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA