US Markets 03 Oct 26

The US market closed lower, except for the Nasdaq, which closed at the historic high.

The dollar index closed higher. It tested the weekly 200 MA resistance and closed below.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

Watch out for

• China short trading week
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,929

Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 30,100, 29,378, 28,655

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951, 3,081, 3,212

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Oct, Mon

• China on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

06 Oct, Tue

• China on holiday
• 2145 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

07 Oct, Wed

• China on holiday
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Oct, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Oct, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction 
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) ^P

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 03 Oct 26

BDI reversed to close lower, from 3,426 (25 Sep) to 3,148 (02 Oct)

Harpex closed higher, from 2,450 (25 Sep) to 2,456 (02 Oct)

CDFI reversed to close lower, from 1,761.82 (24 Sep) to 1,636.90 (30 Sep)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,917.68 (24 Sep) to 1,923.93 (30 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Coffee (1)

Neutral

• Cocoa

Up Trend

• Silver
• Platinum (1)
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Corn
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index closed higher. It tested the weekly 200 MA resistance and closed below.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 26 Sep 26

The US market closed higher, except for the Russell, which closed lower.
Nasdaq closed at the historic high, with the daily trend turning up.

The dollar index closed higher again and broke the 100.3 resistance level.

While Harpex remained unchanged, CCFI, BDI and CDFI closed higher.

Watch out for

• Interest Rate Decision by Australia
• Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by multiple countries
• US GDP and NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,929

Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 30,100, 29,378, 28,655

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951, 3,081, 3,212

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

28 Sep, Mon

• No important data

29 Sep, Tue

• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence  (Sep)
• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

30 Sep, Wed

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI  (Sep)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI  (Sep)
• 1400 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Sep) ^P
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI  (Sep)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Oct, Thu

• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

02 Oct, Fri

• China on holiday
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Sep)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 26 Sep 26

BDI reversed to close higher, from 3,370 (18 Sep) to 3,426 (25 Sep)

Harpex unchanged at 2,450 (25 Sep)

CDFI reversed to close higher, from 1,756.6 (18 Sep) to 1,761.82 (24 Sep)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,897.15 (18 Sep) to 1,917.68 (24 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Cocoa

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Silver
• Platinum
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Corn
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index broke the 100.3 resistance

The dollar index closed higher again and broke the 100.3 resistance level
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA