US Markets 01 Aug 26

The US market broke the previous week's low and recovered to close higher.

The dollar index broke the previous week's high, then reversed to break consolidation support and the 100.3 level.

BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed lower, while Harpex closed higher.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing and Services PMI from multiple countries.
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Nasdaq

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 28,655, 29,378, 30,100

Potential support around 27,933, 27,210, 26,488

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951,  3,081

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

03 Aug, Mon

• Canada on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

04 Aug, Tue

• 2200 US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun)

05 Aug, Wed

• 0750 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes  
• 0830 Japan S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jul)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jul)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

06 Aug, Thu

• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

07 Aug, Fri

• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Jul)
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

Commodities Update 01 Aug 26

BDI closed lower from 2,743 (24 Jul) to 2,732 (31 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,340 (24 Jul) to 2,343 (31 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,473.77 (24 Jul) to 1,467.35 (31 Jul)

CCFI continued to close lower from 1.901.27 (24 Jul) to 1,857.04 (31 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• Soybeans

Down Trend

• Cotton

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index broke the support levels

The dollar index broke the previous week's high, then reversed to break consolidation support and the 100.3 level.
Resistance at 100.3, 102.3, 103.6
Support at 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 25 Jul 26

The US market closed lower.
The S&P daily trend turned to neutral, and the Nasdaq daily trend turned to downtrend.

The dollar index is consolidating and closed higher.

While BDI and CCFI closed lower, CDFI closed higher, and Harpex remained unchanged.

Watch out for

• The US, UK, and Japan's interest rate decisions.
• CPI and GDP from multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Nasdaq (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Downtrend and uptrend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,458, 7,693

Potential support around 7,222, 6,987, 6,751

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 28,655, 29,378, 30,100

Potential support around 27,933, 27,210, 26,488

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951, 3,081

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Jul, Mon

• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) ^P
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) ^P

28 Jul, Tue

• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly  
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence  (Jul)

29 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q2)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

30 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision  
• 0200 US FOMC Statement 
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 1600 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ^P
• 1700 Europe GDP (YoY) (Q2) ^P
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jul) ^P
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ^P
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

31 Jul, Fri

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul) ^P
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) ^P
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 25 Jul 26

BDI continued to close lower from 2,752 (17 Jul) to 2,743 (24 Jul)

Harpex remained unchanged at 2,340 (24 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,460.64 (17 Jul) to 1,473.77 (24 Jul)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,910.67 (17 Jul) to 1.901.27 (24 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Cotton

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index is consolidating and closed higher.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA