Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and closed lower with a small negative roc.  It is consolidating.
Resistance at 102.3, TLU1, 103.6, TLU2, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 28 Jan 2023

BDI closed lower from 763 (20 Jan) to 676 (27 Jan)

Harpex closed lower from 1,103 (20 Jan) to 1,100 (27 Jan)

CDFI remained at 905.49 (20 Jan), and CCFI remained at 1,160.59 because China closed for a long holiday.

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Feeder Cattle (1)

Neutral

• Lumber
• Cotton

Up Trend

• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 28 Jan 2023

The US market closed higher. While Dow closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell tested the recent resistance range.

BDI and Harpex closed lower, while CCFI and CDFI remained the same because China closed for a long holiday.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decisions by US, UK and Europe
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754
Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,910, 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 Jan, Mon

• 1700 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

31 Jan, Tue

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1500 German Retail Sales YoY (Dec)
• 1655 German Unemployment Change (Jan)
• 2100 German CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

01 Feb, Wed

• 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

02 Feb, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Statement
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 2115 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Feb)
• 2115 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2145 Europe ECB Press Conference  

03 Feb, Fri

• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Composite PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Jan)
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and closed lower with a small negative roc.
Resistance at 102.3, TLU1, 103.6, TLU2, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 Jan 2023

BDI closed lower from 946 (13 Jan) to 763 (20 Jan)

Harpex closed lower from 1,145 (13 Jan) to 1,103 (20 Jan)

CDFI closed lower from 922.36 (13 Jan) to 905.49 (20 Jan)

CCFI closed lower from 1,201.55 (13 Jan) to 1,160.59 (20 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• Cotton (1)
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 21 Jan 2023

The US market closed lower, except Nasdaq closed higher. Dow broke hlf (higher low formation).

BDI, Harpex, CCFI, and CDFI closed lower.

The dollar index closed lower.

Watch out for

• China and Hong Kong long holiday
• Manufacturing PMI and CPI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decision by Canada

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

23 Jan, Mon

• Hong Kong and China holiday

24 Jan, Tue

• Hong Kong and China holiday
• 0145 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
• 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
• 1730 UK Composite PMI  
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI
• 1730 UK Services PMI
• 1745 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2245 US Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  

25 Jan, Wed

• Hong Kong and China holiday
• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)
• 2300 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report 
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

26 Jan, Thu

• China Holiday
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US New Home Sales (Dec)

27 Jan, Fri

• China Holiday
• 1830 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• 2130 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)

Dollar Index broke down

The dollar index broke consolidation support and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, TLU1, 103.6, TLU2, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 Jan 2023

BDI closed lower from 1,208 (06 Jan) to 946 (13 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 1,130 (06 Jan) to 1,145 (13 Jan)

CDFI closed lower from 954.73 (06 Jan) to 922.36 (13 Jan)

CCFI closed lower from 1,255.89 (06 Jan) to 1,201.55 (13 Jan)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee (1)
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cotto
• Soybeans
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 14 Jan 2023

The US market closed higher. Russell closed around the strong resistance range.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed lower, while Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index broke consolidation support.

Watch out for

• CPI data by multiple countries
• Interest rate decision by Japan

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 Jan, Mon

• US Holiday

17 Jan, Tue

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)
• 1500 German CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

18 Jan, Wed

• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)  
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)

19 Jan, Thu

• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 1830 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

20 Jan, Fri

• 0000 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec)

Dollar Index consolidating

The dollar index continues to consolidate.
Resistance at TLU2, 106.7, 109.7, TLU3, TLD1, 112.6
Support at 103.6, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 Jan 2023

BDI closed at 1,208 (06 Jan) 

Harpex closed at 1,130 (06 Jan)

CDFI closed at 954.73 (06 Jan) 

CCFI closed at 1,255.89 (06 Jan) 

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium
• Wheat (1)
• Coffee
• Lumber (1)
• Gasoline

Neutral

• Cotton

Up Trend

• Soybeans
• Gold
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Soybean Meal

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Crude

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 07 Jan 2023

The US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.

The dollar index continues to consolidate.

Watch out for

• Speech by Fed Chair Powell
• China and US CPI

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 35,495, 37,625, 39,754

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,106, 26,976, 24,847

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632

Potential support around 3,690, 3,454, 3,219, 2,983

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 11,318, 12,040, 12,762, 13,485

Potential support around 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around 1,779, 1,649, 1,519, 1,389, 1,2591

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 Jan, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• 1800 Europe Unemployment Rate (Nov)

10 Jan, Tue

• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  

11 Jan, Wed

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 Jan, Thu

• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

13 Jan, Fri

• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Dec)
• 1500 UK GDP
• 1500 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)
• 1700 German Full-Year GDP Growth (2022)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)