Commodities Potential Trade

 Rough Rice broke out from consolidation

Sugar broke out and on an uptrend in the daily chart.

Dollar Index consolidating

Dollar index tested recent high, some of the gains are erased before closing.
On the weekly chart, Dollar index closed with a +roc (close price > open price) inside day.

Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 30 Jan 2021

BDI closed lower from 1,837 (22 Jan) to 1,452 (28 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 1,094.38 (15 Jan) to 1,112.87 (22 Jan)

CDFI continues to close lower, from 958.98 (22 Jan) to 866.09 (29 Jan)

CCFI closed higher from 1,966.64 (22 Jan) to 2,040.18 (29 Jan)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas
• Feeder Cattle
• Palladium

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Rough Rice
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 31 Jan 2021

US market closed lower.  On the weekly charts, Dow broke hlf (higher low formation) while S&P, Nasdaq and Russell closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price) inside day.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

Dollar Index consolidating.

Watch out for Manufacturing PMI, Interest rate decision and US NFP.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,07

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around  2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

01 Feb, Mon

• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1655 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

02 Feb, Tue

• 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1800 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.

03 Feb, Wed

• 0545 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0930 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 1600 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement??
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jan)
• 2115 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

04 Feb, Thu

• 0830 Australia Trade Balance
• 1730 UK Construction PMI (Jan)
• 1800 Europe Retail Sales
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
• 2030 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

05 Feb, Fri

• 0630 Australia RBA's Governor Lowe speech
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 0830 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 2130 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 2130 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• 2130 US Unemployment Rate (Jan)
• 1230 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Jan)
• 2300 Canada Ivey PMI (Jan)

Dollar Index consolidating

On the weekly chart, Dollar index testing recent high but failed to hold and closed lower.

Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Jan 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,792 (14 Jan) to 1,837 (22 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 1,069.63 (08 Jan) to 1,097.8 (15 Jan)

CDFI closed lower from 986.13 (15 Jan) to 958.98 (22 Jan)

CCFI closed higher from 1,863.84 (15 Jan) to 1,966.64 (22 Jan)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas
• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 23 Jan 2021

US market continues to close at historic high except Dow.

BDI, Harpex, and CCFI closed higher while CDFI closed lower.

Dollar Index consolidating.

Watch out for FOMC statement, US Good trade balance and Initial Jobless Claims on Thur.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,07

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around  2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

25 Jan, Mon

• 1645 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan)

26 Jan, Tue

• 0015 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 1500 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov)
• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Dec)
• 2300 US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

27 Jan, Wed

• 0830 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

28 Jan, Thu

• 0300 US FOMC Statement
• 0300 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0330 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 2130 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2130 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2130 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2300 US New Home Sales (Dec)

29 Jan, Fri

• 0830 Australia Producer Price Index
• 1700 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 1700 German Unemployment Change (Jan)
• 2130 Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index consolidating

On the weekly chart, Dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher.  Dollar Index consolidating.

Resistance at 92.0, 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.8, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Jan 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,606 (08 Jan) to 1,792 (14 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 1,038.02 (01 Jan) to 1,069.63 (08 Jan)

CDFI closed higher from 913.8 (08 Jan) to 986.13 (15 Jan)

CCFI closed higher from 1,753.85 (08 Jan) to 1,863.84 (15 Jan)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 16 Jan 2021

On the weekly chart, US market closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price) except for Russell closed with a new historic high.

All shipping indices (BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI)  closed higher.

Dollar Index consolidating.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,07

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around  2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

18 Jan, Mon

• US holiday
• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)

19 Jan, Tue

• 1500 Europe Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 1700 Europe ECB Bank Lending Survey
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)

20 Jan, Wed

• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Dec)
• 2130 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report 
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

21 Jan, Thu

• U.S. President Biden Speaks  
• 0015 Canada BoC Press Conference
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Dec)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 
• 1100 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) 
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
• 2130 US Building Permits (Dec)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference  

22 Jan, Fri

• 0545 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)  
• 1700 Europe Markit PMI Composite
• 1730 UK Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Jan)  
• 2130 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 2300 US Existing Home Sales (Dec)

Dollar Index closed higer but directionless

Dollar index broke pwl (previous week low), recovered and closed with a +roc (close price > open price).

Resistance at 90.6, 92.0, 93.3, TLD1, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 88.8, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 09 Jan 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,211 (11 Dec) 1,606 (08 Jan)

Harpex closed higher from 1,016.25 (04 Dec) to 1,038.02 (01 Jan)

CDFI closed higher from 800.96 (11 Dec) to 913.8 (08 Jan)

CCFI closed higher from 1,411.98 (11 Dec) to 1,753.85 (08 Jan)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Palladium
• Feeder Cattle

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Soybean Oil
• Sugar
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 09 Jan 2021

On the weekly chart, US market closed with an outside day at a new historic high.

All shipping indices (BDI, Harpex, CDFI and CCFI)  closed higher.

Dollar Index directionless.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• DOW

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 31,236, 33,365

Potential support around  29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195, 27,345, 26,635

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155, 3,07

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856, 10,595

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,170, 2,300

Potential support around  2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,683, 1,649

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

11 Jan, Mon

• Japan holiday
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2300 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech

12 Jan, Tue

• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 2000 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)

13 Jan, Wed

• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

14 Jan, Thu

• 1500 German GDP (QoQ)
• 2030 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

15 Jan, Fri

• 0130 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 1500 UK GDP
• 2130 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Dec)
• 2130 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index