Commodities Update - 28 May 16

BDI lower to 606 (27 May) from 625 (20 May)
No change on Harpex at 359.98 (21 May)

Summary
Most metals continue to close lower, Energy closed higher and most soft commodities closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Cocoa
• Oats
• Copper
• Palladium

Neutral

• Wheat

Up Trend 

• Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Sugar
• Soybeans
• Soybean Meal
• Lumber
• Heating Oil

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Commodities Update - 19 Mar 16

BDI closed higher this week at 395 (18 Mar) from 388 (11 Mar)
Harpex remained at 364.95 (12 Mar) 

Summary
Most commodities closed higher due to USD weakening

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Oats
• Natural Gas (1)
• Cotton

Neutral

• Wheat
• Soybean Meal

Up Trend 

• Corn
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Crude
• Gasoline
• Heating Oil
• Gold
• Silver

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Soft Commodity

Recently one of my friend shared with me when she attended a talk .  The speaker mentioned about trading opportunities with soft commodities that been in bear for years. When Fed start to raised rates, this could be their bottom.  Thus this posting is do an overview and follow with a plan if the opportunity do come by.  In fact El Nino will also causes soft commodities production to be lower resulting in high price too.

Corn
Break out of symmetrical triangle in Jun and break down. 345 will be an important support level.  Closing below this level for 2-3 days will see more selling.  COT buying interest is building up, more in favour to long

Wheat
Forming descending triangle since Aug 2014.  Immediate support at 485, next support around 465.  COT buying interest is building up, more in favour to long

Coffee Arabica
In UT, retracement support will be TL2 and TL1.

Sugar Raw
Falling Wedge (TL1 and TL2) and COT buying interest is building up, more in flavor to long.  May go long if can break out of TL2 with confirmation signal.  May use V3Go break on lhf to build up small position and SL will be -1(v) of TL1.

Rough Rice
Trading within UT channel.  If closed 3 days below 10 SMA, get out first.

Oats
May go long if break out of TL1 with confirmation signal.  COT interest is near to all time high.

Soybean
Break out and pull back near to 2010 low.  920 will be an important level for recent low.  COT buying interest is getting lower, not in favour to go long.

Soybean Meal
COT buying interest is below 10, will not go long until COT buying interest is building up again

Soybean Oil
Trade within DT channel.  Tested recent support at 29.27, if unable to hold expect more selling. 

US Cocoa
If unable to hold 3012 strong support, may test 2678.  COT buying interest is building up, will only long if there is a signal and trade above 3012 level.