Dollar Index broke resistance

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation), 92.0 level and TLD1 to close higher.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, TLD1, 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 27 Mar 2021

BDI pull back from 2,215 (19 Mar) to 2,178 (26 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,387.21 (12 Mar) to 1,442.97 (19 Mar)

CDFI closed lower from 1,338.79 (19 Mar) to 1,317.46 (26 Mar)

CCFI close lower again, from 1,908.09 (19 Mar) to 1,836.61 (26 Mar)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 27 Mar 2021

US market closed mixed. 
On the weekly chart, Dow and S&P broke hlf (higher low formation), recovered and closed higher with a +roc (close price > open price).  Nasdaq and Russell broke hlf and recovered too but closed lower with a -roc (close price < open price).

Harpex closed higher while BDI, CDFI, and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index broke out of resistance.

Watch out for 

• China Manufacturing PMI
• US President Biden speech
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

• No important data

30 Mar, Tue

• 2000 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)

31 Mar, Wed

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1400 UK GDP (YoY) (Q4)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)  
• 2000 US President Biden speech
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

01 Apr, Thu

• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
• 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1)
• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 0830 Australia Trade Balance (MoM)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1400 German Retail Sales (YoY)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Building Permits (MoM)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

02 Apr, Fri

• Most countries are on holiday
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Dollar Index recovered

The dollar index broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered to close higher.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 20 Mar 2021

BDI broke 2.000 mark, from 1,970 (12 Mar) to 2,215 (19 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,323.39 (05 Mar) to 1,387.21 (12 Mar)

CDFI closed higher from 1,223.9 (12 Mar) to 1,338.79 (19 Mar)

CCFI close lower for another week, from 1,912.13 (12 Mar) to 1,908.09 (19 Mar)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Natural Gas
• Palladium

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 20 Mar 2021

On the weekly chart, the US market (except Russell) broke pwh (previous week high) and reversed to close lower with a -roc (close price < open price).
Russell closed lower with an inside day.

BDI, Harpex and CDFI closed higher.
CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index closed higher.

Watch out for 

• Interest rate from various countries
• Speech from Fed Chair Powell, BoE's Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde and European Council Meeting

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

22 Mar, Mon

• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2100 US Fed's Chair Powell speech
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Feb)

23 Mar, Tue

• 1500 UK Claimant Count Change (Feb)
• 1500 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
• 1950 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Feb) 

24 Mar, Wed

• 0000 US Fed's Chair Powell testifies
• 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
• 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1500 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
• 1700 Europe Markit PMI Composite
• 1730 UK Services PMI (Mar)  
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies  
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

25 Mar, Thu

• 0800 European Council Meeting
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
• 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
• 1730 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks  
• 1730 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

26 Mar, Fri

• 0800 European Council Meeting
• 1500 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 0830 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index failed to hold above resistance

The dollar index failed to hold above TLD1, 92.0 resistance and closed lower.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 13 Mar 2021

BDI rallied higher from 1,779 (05 Mar) to 1,970 (12 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,278.36 (26 Feb) to 1,323.39 (05 Mar)

CDFI closed lower from 1,139.84 (05 Mar) to 1,223.9 (12 Mar)

CCFI continues to close lower, from 1,970.58 (05 Mar) to 1,912.13 (12 Mar)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 13 Mar 2021

On the weekly chart, the US market broke lhf (lower high formation) and closed higher except for Nasdaq closed higher with an inside day.
Dow, S&P and Russell closed with a historic high.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.
CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index closed lower.

Watch out for 

• Starting from 15 Mar 2021 (Mon), the US stock trading hours will start from 2130 Hrs  (SGT).
• FOMC Statement on 18 Mar (Thu) 0200 Hrs (SGT)

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,430

Potential support around 2,300, 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

15 Mar, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
• 1000 China Retail Sales (YoY)

16 Mar, Tue

• 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

17 Mar, Wed

• 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Feb)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Feb)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

18 Mar, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Statement  
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0545 New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
• 0830 Australia Employment Change (Feb)
• 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2000 UK Bank of England Minutes
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims

19 Mar, Fri

• 0830 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 1030 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Dollar Index broke out

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke lhf (lower high formation), broke out from consolidation resistance and closed higher.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD1, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 06 Mar 2021

BDI closed higher from 1,700 (25 Feb) to 1,779 (05 Mar)

Harpex closed higher from 1,262.26 (19 Feb) to 1,278.36 (26 Feb)

CDFI close higher from 1,046.46 (26 Feb) to 1,139.84 (05 Mar)

CCFI closed lower from 2,059.52 (26 Feb) to 1,970.58 (05 Mar)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Coffee
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 06 Mar 2021

On the weekly chart, the US market broke pwl (previous week low), some of the losses were trimmed before closing mixed.  Dow and S&P closed higher while Nasdaq and Russell closed lower.

BDI, CDFI, and Harpex closed higher.
CCFI closed lower.

The Dollar Index broke out from consolidating and closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Dow
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 28,195

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388, 3,219, 3,155

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,856

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779, 1,743, 1,708

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

08 Mar, Mon

• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 1800 UK BoE's Governor Bailey speech

09 Mar, Tue

• 0750 Japan GDP
• 1800 Europe GDP

10 Mar, Wed

• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2130 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2300 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2330 US Crude Oil Inventories

11 Mar, Thu

• 2045 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Mar)
• 2045 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
• 2130 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2130 Europe ECB Press Conference  
• 2300 US JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)

12 Mar, Fri

• 1500 UK GDP (QoQ)
• 1500 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
• 2130 US PPI (MoM) (Feb)
• 2130 Canada Employment Change (Feb)
• 2300 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index