Monitor to short metals

Metals COT buying interested is decreasing.  Based on LW's theory (COT <=10) , may look for short if the trend is down.  Silver COT selling interest is in the extreme but trend is not in favour, therefore will need to wait.  Gold COT had slightly increased from 10 to 20 in the month of Jul.  May monitor metals to short after the change of trend.

Dollar Index pull back

Dollar Index pulls back to consolidation range after GDP worst than expected but better than previous.  In weekly chart, closed with an outside day.  
China, various countries in Europe will report Manufacturing PMI on Mon. NFP and unemployment data on next Fri.
Resistance at TLU7, 96.3, TLD2, 97.3, TLD3
Support at 95.0, TLU8, 94.0, TLD7, TLU9, TLD1, 93.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 30 Jul 16

BDI broke below 700 level, lower from 718 (22 Jul) to 656 (29 Jul)
Harpex lower again from 347.56 (16 Jul) to 345.90 (23 Jul)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed with metals higher while energy lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Cocoa
• Wheat

Neutral

• None

Up Trend 

• Natural Gas
• Palladium

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Silver
• Lumber
• Cotton

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• Soybean Meal
• Heating Oil

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 30 Jul 16

Most markets closed higher this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (increased for 1st week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Nasdaq broke historic high but closed below it.  Russell edge higher closed above the strong resistance level.  Dow and S&P hovered within the Diff.
COT buying interest continue to decrease except S&P.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 18,560, TLU4, TLU2, TLU, TLU6

Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P

Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2174

Potential support around 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, TLD3, 2,081

Nasdaq

Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around TLU1

Potential support around 4,772, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347

Russell

Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 1,240, 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1

Potential support around 1,213, 1,185, TLU2, 1,164, TLU5, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

01 Aug, Mon

• Canada, Switzerland holiday
• 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
• 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
• 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   

02 Aug, Tue

• 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Aug)   
• 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement
• 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Jul)  

03 Aug, Wed

• 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)  
• 1500 EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting  
• 1630 GBP Services PMI (Jul)
• 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 
• 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)  
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

04 Aug, Thu

• 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
• 1900 GBP BoE Inflation Report 
• 1900 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 
• 1900 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
• 1900 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks     

05 Aug, Fri

• 0930 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
• 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 
• 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Jul) 
• 2030 CAD Employment Change (Jul) 
• 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Jul) 

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
A new diff is formed and closed above Diff.  May test higher before a pull back.
Potential resistance around 5,528, 5,617, UT Channel Resistance, 5,735
Potential support around TLU4, 5,463, TLU5, 5,316, UT Channel Support, 5,266

Japan 
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Closed slightly above Diff.  Outside day formed on Thur while Fri is an inside day.  Need to overcome TLU2 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 16,896, TLU2, 17,328, 17,890, DT Channel Resistance
Potential support around 16,581, TLU3, TLD1, TLU1, 15,418, 14,795

Hong Kong
Daily UT, Weekly DT 
Broke out of symmetrical triangle (TLD6, TLU6).
To maintain the up trend, any pull back need to close above TLU2
Potential resistance around 22,409, TLU4, 23,969, TLU1 
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080, TLD6, TLU2, TLD5, TLU5, 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily UT, Weekly DT 
Broke out of symmetrical triangle (TLD6, TLU7) and trade within the Diff
If unable to break out from Diff, may see a pull back.
Potential resistance around 9,006, 9,195, TLD4, TLU2, 9,658
Potential support around TLD6, 8,637, TLU6, TLD5, 8,102

UK
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Directionless for 2 weeks.
Potential resistance around 6,809, TLU2, 6949, 7,047, 7,079, 7,127
Potential support around 6,578, 6,429, 6,297, TLD2, 6,125

Germany
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Covered 23 Jun gap.  Strong resistance at weekly diff (10,347)
Potential resistance around 10,189, TLD4, TLU1, TLD3, 10,653
Potential support around 9,924, 9,679, 9,468, TLD2, 9,216

India
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Directionless after the gap up last week.  Any pull back, UT channel lower band is a strong support for potential rebound
Potential resistance around 8,578, 8,705, 8,836, UT Channel Resistance, 9,006
Potential support around 8,435, UT Channel Support, TLU2, 8,223, 8,085, 7,991

Dollar Index broke out

Dollar Index broke out from consolidation.  
If unable to stay above 96.9 for 2-3 days, may see testing consolidation support level. 
Thur (28 Jul) 0200Hrs (SGT) will have important FOMC Statement  and US Interest Rate Decision.
Resistance at TLD3, TLU6, 98.3, 99.8
Support at 97.3, TLD2, 96.3, TLU7, 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 23 Jul 16

BDI pull back to 718 (22 Jul) from 745 (15 Jul)
Harpex continues to break recent low at 347.56 (16 Jul) from 348.80 (09 Jul)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower this week.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Wheat (1)

Neutral

• None

Up Trend 

• Palladium
• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Coffee
• Silver
• Lumber
• Cotton

Neutral 

• Soybean Meal

Down Trend 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 23 Jul 16

Most markets continue to close higher this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 3rd week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Looking at raw data, there is a decrease in the number of long positions and an increase in the number of short positions.

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Nasdaq leads US markets to close higher. S&P and Russell consolidating within Diff. Russell continues to be resisted around 1213 (strong resistance in 2014).
With COT buying interest decreasing and historic charts, reflect in the month of Aug, markets tends to be weaker.
Thur morning 0200 (SGT) will have FOMC Statement and Fed Interest Rate Decision 

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 18,560, TLU4, TLU2, TLU, TLU6
Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2174
Potential support around 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, TLD3, 2,081

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 4,682, 4,772, TLU1
Potential support around 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347, 4,271, 4,193

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,213, 1,240, 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1
Potential support around 1,185, TLU2, 1,164, TLU5, 1,137


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
25 Jul, Mon

• 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 

26 Jul, Tue

• 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)   
• 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jun) 

27 Jul, Wed

• 0930 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
• 1630 GBP GDP (YoY), (QoQ) (Q2) 
• 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

28 Jul, Thu

• 0200 USD FOMC Statement  
• 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 
• 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul) 

29 Jul, Fri

• 0930 AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ), (YoY)
• Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)     
• 1300 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)   
• 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference     
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jul)  
• 1700 EUR GDP (QoQ), (YoY)
• 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
• 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (May) 

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar Index continue to be directionless
Resistance at TLD2, 97.3, TLU6, TLD3, 98.3
Support at 96.3, TLU7, 95.0, TLD7, TLU8, 94.0, TLD1, 93.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 17 Jul 16

BDI closed higher at 745 (15 Jul) from 703 (08 Jul)
Harpex lower from 351.7 (02 Jul) to 348.80 (09 Jul)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Wheat

Neutral

• None

Up Trend 

• Palladium
• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Coffee
• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Heating Oil
• Silver

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 16 Jul 16

Most markets closed higher this week.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (decreased for 2nd week)

Neutral

• None

DT

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US closed higher this week with DOW and S&P broke historic high.

After such a run up, a pull back will be great.  With COT buying interest getting lower, pull back may not be inevitable,  magnitude of pull back may be limited since economy is improving.  From this week onward will be see more companies reporting their earning.  This may be one of the catalyst to move the markets forward.

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 18,560, TLU4, TLU2, TLU, TLU6

Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P

Daily UT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 2174

Potential support around 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, TLD3, 2,081

Nasdaq

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 4,640, 4,682, 4,772, TLU1

Potential support around 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347, 4,271, 4,193

Russell

Daily UT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 1,213, 1,240, 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1

Potential support around 1,185, TLU2, 1,164, TLU5, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

18 Jul, Mon

• Japan Holiday
• 0645 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 

19 Jul, Tue

• 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 
• 2030 USD Building Permits (Jun) 

20 Jul, Wed

• 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) 
• 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 

21 Jul, Thu

• 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
• 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Jul)  
• 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 
• 2030 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 
• 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun) 

22 Jul, Fri

• 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Jul)
• 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
• 1630 GBP Services PMI (Jul) 
• 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)   

Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Broke UT channel lower band and recovered within channel. Need to break weekly diff (5,347) and close above for 2-3 days for more upside
Potential resistance around 5,316, TLU6, TLU3, 5,463, 5,528
Potential support around 5,266, 5,138, 5,025, TLU4, TLD5, 4,833

Japan 
Daily DT, Weekly DT
In weekly chart, formed inside day in 2 consecutive weeks.  No clear direction.
Potential resistance around 15,418, TLU5, TLU6, TLD6, 16,581, 16,896, TLU4, 17,328, 17,890
Potential support around  14,795, 14,366, 13,843, TLD4, 13,315

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
Moving within symmetrical triangle (TLD6, TLU6, magneta color), explosive movement maybe coming soon
Potential resistance around TLU2, TLD5, 21,080, TLD6, 21,682, 22,409, TLU4
Potential support around TLU5, 20,011, TLU6, 19,073, TLU3, 18,051

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
Similar to HK, moving within symmetrical triangle (TLD6, TLU7), explosive movement maybe coming soon
Potential resistance around TLD6, 9,006, 9,195, TLD4, TLU2, 9,658
Potential support around 8,637, TLU6, TLD5, 8,102, TLU3, TLU4,  7,479

UK
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Moving within Diff after a new diff is formed.  No clear direction for this week.  Daily trend from Neutral to UT while weekly trend from DT to Neutral.
Potential resistance around 6,809, TLU2, 6949, 7,047, 7,079, 7,127
Potential support around 6,578, 6,429, 6,297, TLD2, 6,125, 6,070, 6,010, TLU3, 5,894, 5,768

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Direction not clear, trying to cover 23 Jun gap but failed.  Upside may see it cover the gap 23 Jun while downside watch for TLU2, long term trend support
Potential resistance around 9,679, 9,924, 10,189, TLU1, TLU3, TLD3, 10,653
Potential support around TLD2, 9,468, 9,216, TLU2, 8,928

India
Daily UT, Weekly DT
A new weekly and daily diff are formed.  Any pull back, UT channel lower band is a strong support for potential rebound
Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578, 8,705, 8,836
Potential support around TLU2, 8,223, 8,085, 7,991, 7,929, 7,817

Dollar Index closed with a doji

With much better than expected NFP on Fri, rally failed to hold and closed with a Doji at 96.3 level. The pull back may due to 
1) higher unemployment rate  than forecast and previous month
2) lesser increase in average hourly earnings when compare to forecast and previous month.
Due to lack of US economic data at the beginning of the week, watch out for GBP Inflation report on Tue and GBP interest rate decision on Thur may affect movement of US dollar index.  Sideways may continue for time being.
Resistance at 96.3, TLD2, 97.3, TLU6, TLD3, 98.3
Support at TLU7, 95.0, TLD7, TLU8, 94.0, TLD1, 93.3, 92.5

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 09 Jul 16

BDI continue higher from 677 (01 Jul) to 703 (08 Jul)
Harpex break another low to 351.7 (02 Jul) from 352.53 (25 Jun)

Summary
Most soft commodities and energy closed lower while the rest closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 

• Wheat

Neutral

• Palladium

Up Trend 

• Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Heating Oil
• Silver

Neutral 

• None

Down Trend 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Indices Performance Chart - 09 Jul 16

Most markets closed lower except for US closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

• S&P (1) (decreased for 1st week)

Neutral

• Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
• Russell (decreased for 1st week)

DT

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US rallied on Fri with much better than expected NFP (non farm payroll), Actual 287K, Forecast 175K, previous 11K.  Unemployment rate edge 0.1% higher than forecast which market are not too concern but a different view in Forex market.  In weekly chart, it also broke lhf.  S&P maybe going to test last year historic high soon and whether can it hold above it? Dow may be the next going to test the high while Nasdaq and Russell still have more room to go before testing the high.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 18,189, 18,367, TLU4, TLU2
Potential support around TLD5, 17,829, 17,600, TLD3, TLD4, 17,271, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around TLU4, 2,129, 2,137
Potential support around 2,116, 2,102, TLD3, 2,081, 2,061, 2,045, 2,028, 
TLD5, 1,996

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 4,537, 4,640, 4,682, 4,772, TLU1
Potential support around TLD3, 4,347, TLU2, 4,271, 4,193

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 1,185, 1,213, 1,240, 1,274
Potential support around 1,164, TLU5, 1,137, 1,114, TLD4, 1,082, 1,049

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
11 Jul, Mon

• No important data

12 Jul, Tue

• 1700 GBP Inflation Report Hearings

13 Jul, Wed

• 1106 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) 
• 2030 USD Import Price Index
• 2200 CAD Interest Rate Decision 
• 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
• 2300 CAD BoC Press Conference

14 Jul, Thu

• 0930 AUD Employment Change (Jun)   
• 1900 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 
• 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (May) 

15 Jul, Fri

• 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
• 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)    
• 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 
• 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)