Sunday, March 31, 2019

Dollar Index covered the gap

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke lhf and closed near to week high.  It had also covered the gap between 18 and 19 Mar.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6



COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA 

Commodities Update 30 Mar 19

BDI edged lower to 689 (29 Mar) from 690 (21 Mar)
Harpex closed higher for another week at 560.61 (22 Mar) from 552.56 (15 Mar)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Cocoa
  • Corn (1) 
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal
  • Wheat
  • Natural Gas
Neutral
  • Sugar
Up Trend
  • Cotton
  • Lumber
  • Rough Rice
  • Gold
  • Crude
  • Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 30 Mar 19

US markets broke pwl, recovered and closed higher with a +roc.

Harpex continues to climb higher for the past few weeks.

Dollar Index had recovered and closed the gap.

Most countries will be reporting their Manufacturing PMI data this week.  US will have NFP data on Fri.


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average




Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around
 
26,245, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,784, 25,645, 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,814, 2,786, 2,747, 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,516, 7,706, 8,428
Potential support around 7,282, 7,134, 6,982, 6,516, TLU3, TLU4, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
01 Apr, Mon
  • 0750 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
  • 0750 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1)
  • 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
  • 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 
  • 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
02 Apr, Tue
  • 1130 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
  • 1130 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
  • 1630 UK Construction PMI (Mar)
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
03 Apr, Wed
  • 0830 Australia Trade Balance
  • 1630 UK Services PMI (Mar)
  • 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
  • 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
04 Apr, Thu
  • 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 
  • 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar)
05 Apr, Fri
  • Hong Kong and China holiday
  • 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
  • 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Mar) 
  • 2030 Canada Employment Change (Mar)

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Dollar Index tested trendline support

Dollar Index tested trendline support, rebounded and closed above.  It needs to stay above trendline to be in the +ve momentum. Dollar Index will need to cover the gap between 18 and 19 Mar.
Resistance at 96.3, 97.3, 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6




COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 23 Mar 19

BDI slided to 690 (21 Mar) from 730 (14 Mar)
Harpex continues to climb higher to 552.56 (15 Mar) from 543.01 (08 Mar)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Cocoa
  • Corn (1) 
  • Soybean Meal
  • Wheat
  • Natural Gas
Neutral
  • Soybean
  • Orange Juice
Up Trend
  • Cotton
  • Lumber
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Sugar
  • Gold
  • Crude
  • Heating Oil (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 23 Mar 19

US markets broke pwh but failed to sustain and closed lower with a -ve roc.

Harpex continues to climb higher.

Dollar Index may recover to close the gap.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around
 
25,645, 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,814, 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,786, 2,747, 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,516, 7,706, 8,428
Potential support around 7,282, 7,134, 6,982, 6,516, TLU3, TLU4, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 
1,508, 1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708
Potential support around 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
25 Mar, Mon
  • 1700 German Ifo Business Climate Index 
26 Mar, Tue
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Feb)
  • 2200 CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) 
27 Mar, Wed
  • 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 
  • 0900 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
  • 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference  
  • 1600 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks  
  • 2030 US Trade Balance
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
28 Mar, Thu
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 2100 German CPI (YoY) (Mar)
  • 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
29 Mar, Fri
  • 1655 German Unemployment Change (Mar)
  • 1730 UK GDP
  • 1800 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
  • 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan)
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (Feb) 

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Dollar Index false breakout

Dollar Index failed to hold and close below 97.3 support. On the weekly chart, it closed with an inside day.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6
Due to Chartnexus (Dollar Index chart provider) become chargeable after software upgrade, I have switched it to another free service provider, FxPro.

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 16 Mar 19

BDI rallied to 730 (14 Mar) from 649 (08 Mar) 
Harpex climbed higher to 543.01 (8 Mar) from  527.84 (01 Mar)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Cocoa
  • Corn (1) 
  • Soybean Meal (1) 
  • Wheat
  • Orange Juice
  • Natural Gas
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • Cotton
Up Trend
  • Lumber
  • Rough Rice (1)
  • Soybean (1)
  • Sugar
  • Gold
  • Crude
  • Heating Oil (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 16 Mar 19

US markets closed higher.  S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf on the weekly chart.  Dow broke pwl, recovered and closed with a strong +roc while Russell closed with an inside day.

BDI and Harpex rebounded.

Dollar Index had a false breakout.

21 Mar 0200 Hrs will have US interest rate decision and UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal at 0300 Hrs

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around
 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, TLU11, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,645, 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,825, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,814, 2,786, 2,747, 2,710, 2,593 2,551, 2,506

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,516, 7,706, 8,428
Potential support around 7,282, 7,134, 6,982, 6,516, TLU3, TLU4, 6,346, TLU4, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 
1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708, 1,743
Potential support around 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
18 Mar, Mon
  • No important data
19 Mar, Tue
  • 0830 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes  
  • 1730 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan)
  • 1730 UK Claimant Count Change (Feb) 
  • 1800 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
20 Mar, Wed
  • 0750 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 1730 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
21 Mar, Thu
  • Japan Holiday
  • 0200 US FOMC Economic Projections  
  • 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 
  • 0200 US FOMC Statement 
  • 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
  • 0300 UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal 
  • 0930 Australia Employment Change (Feb) 
  • 1630 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 
  • 1630 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment  
  • 1700 Switzerland SNB Press Conference  
  • 1730 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2000 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
22 Mar, Fri
  • 1630 German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)  
  • 1700 Europe Manufacturing PMI
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (MoM)