Dollar Index continues to lower

The dollar index broke trend support (TLU2) and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.66, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 28 May 2022

BDI closed lower from 3,344 (20 May) to 2,681 (27 May)

Harpex closed higher from 4,395 (20 May) to 4,401 (27 May)

CDFI closed lower from 1,875.36 (20 May) to 1,757.49 (27 May)

CCFI closed higher from 3,135.78 (20 May) to 3,190.95 (27 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Lumber
• Feeder Cattle (1)
• Cocoa

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline  (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

US Market 28 May 2022

US market broke lhf (lower high formation) on the weekly chart and closed higher.

BDI and CDFI closed lower while CCFI and Harpex closed higher.

The dollar index broke trend support and closed lower.

Watch out for

• GDP and Manufacturing PMI data from multiple countries
• Speech by Europe ECB President Lagarde
• Canada Interest Rate Decision
• US NFP

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow (1)
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925,  3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,410, 12,040,  11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

30 May, Mon

• US Holiday

31 May, Tue

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (May)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (May)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 CB Consumer Confidence (May)

01 Jun, Wed

• 0930 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1900 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision

02 Jun, Thu

• UK Holiday
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2300 US Crude Oil Inventories

03 Jun, Fri

• UK, Hong Kong and China holiday
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (May)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)

Dollar Index retreated and tested trend support

The dollar index broke hlf (high low formation) on the weekly chart, tested TLU2 trend support, and trimmed some losses before closing lower.
Resistance at 103.66, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 21 May 2022

BDI closed higher from 3,104 (13 May) to 3,344 (20 May)

Harpex remained the same at 4,395 (20 May)

CDFI closed higher from 1,817.83 (13 May) to 1,875.36 (20 May)

CCFI closed higher from 3,088.03 (13 May)  to 3,135.78 (20 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver
• Lumber

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle (1)

Up Trend

• Gasoline 

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Orange Juice
• Rough Rice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 21 May 2022

US market closed lower with a -roc (closing price < opening price). Dow and Nasdaq broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered some of the losses. S&P closed with an outside day while Russell broke lhf (lower high formation), failed to hold and closed lower on the weekly chart.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex remained unchanged.

The dollar index retreated and tested trend support.

Watch out for

• Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales from multiple countries
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Speech by BoE Gov Bailey and Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 3,925, 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around 12,040, 12,410, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,779, 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

23 May, Mon

• Canada Holiday
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

24 May, Tue

• 0015 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 0645 New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ (Q1)
• 0700 Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI 
• 2145 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (May)  
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)

25 May, Wed

• 0020 US Fed Chair Powell Speech 
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement  
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

26 May, Thu

• Switzerland Holiday
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (Apr)

27 May, Fri

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance (Apr) 
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)

Dollar Index broke consolidation resistance

The dollar index broke consolidation resistance and closed higher.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.66, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 14 May 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,718 (06 May) to 3,104 (13 May)

Harpex remained the same at 4,395 (13 May)

CDFI closed higher from 1,670.19 (06 May) to 1,817.83 (13 May)

CCFI closed higher from 3,056.98 (06 May) to 3,088.03 (13 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)
• Gold (1)
• Silver

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle

Up Trend

• Gasoline (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 14 May 2022

US market slumped down and recovered some losses before closing with a small -roc (closing price < opening price) pin bar on the weekly chart.

BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher, while Harpex remained unchanged.

The dollar Index broke consolidation resistance.

Watch out for

• Retail sales data from multiple countries
• Inflation rates data from multiple countries
• Speech by ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average.

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT

Potential resistance around12,410, 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,040, 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

16 May, Mon

• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)
• 1000 China Unemployment Rate (April)
• 1000 China Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
• 1700 European Commission Spring Forecasts

17 May, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Apr)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

18 May, Wed

• 0100 Europe ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 0200 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 1400 UK Inflation Rate YoY (Apr)
• 1700 Europe Inflation Rate YoY (Apr)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

19 May, Thu

• 0750 Japan Balance of Trade (Apr)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Apr)
• 1000 New Zealand Annual Budget Release
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Apr)

20 May, Fri

• 0730 Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Apr)
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

Dollar index tested 103.66 resistance

The dollar index tested 103.66 resistance and closed at 103.68.
The dollar index is consolidating.
Resistance at 106.7, 109.7
Support at 103.66, 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 07 May 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,404 (29 Apr) to 2,718 (06 May)

Harpex lower from 4,407 (29 Apr) to 4,395 (06 May)

CDFI closed higher from 1,572.19 (29 Apr) to 1,670.19 (06 May)

CCFI closed lower from 3,096.85 (29 Apr) to 3,056.98 (06 May)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Palladium (1)

Neutral

• Feeder Cattle
• Gold (1)

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 07 May 2022

US market closed lower for another week.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while CCFI and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index tested 103.66 resistance and closed at 103.68.

Watch out for

• Speech from ECB Guindos and ECB President Lagarde
• US and China Inflation Rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Dow
• Russell (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 12,762, 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652

Potential support around 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,595, 9,873, 9,150

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,649, 1,624, 1,609

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

09 May, Mon

• Hong Kong holiday
• 1100 China Balance of Trade (Apr)

10 May, Tue

• 0930 Australia Retail Sales MoM (Mar)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)

11 May, Wed

• 0120 Europe ECB Guindos Speech 
• 0930 China Inflation Rate YoY (Apr)
• 1600 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
• 2030 US Inflation Rate (Apr)

2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

12 May, Thu

• 1400 UK Goods Trade Balance (Mar)
• 1400 UK GDP (Q1)
• 1400 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Apr)

13 May, Fri

• 1500 Europe ECB Guindos Speech
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)

Dollar index testing 103.66 resistance

The dollar index tested 103.66 resistance for the third time.
Resistance at 103.66, 106.7, 109.7
Support at 102.3, 100.3, 99.8, 98.7, 97.3

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 31 Apr 2022

BDI closed higher from 2,307 (22 Apr) to 2,404 (29 Apr)

Harpex lower from 4,449 (22 Apr) to 4,407 (29 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,539.56 (22 Apr) to 1,572.19 (29 Apr)

CCFI closed lower from 3,109.78  (22 Apr) to 3,096.85 (29 Apr)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Feeder Cattle

Neutral

• Palladium (1)

Up Trend

• Gold (1)
• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn
• Orange Juice

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 31 Apr 2022

US market continues to close lower.

BDI and CDFI closed higher, while CCFI and Harpex closed lower.

The dollar index continues to close higher.

Watch out for

• China and Japan have long holidays
• Manufacturing PMI from multiple countries
• Australia and US Interest Rate Decision

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Russell (1)

DT 

• Dow

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None
  

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495, 37,625

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912, 26,976

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396, 4,632, 4,867, 5,103

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,219

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930, 15,652, 16,374, 17,097

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318, 10,595

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,910, 2,040, 2,170, 2,300, 2,430, 2,561

Potential support around 1,779, 1,743, 1,708, 1,649

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

02 May, Mon

• Singapore, Hong Kong, China and UK holidays.
• 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 1600 Europe Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2130 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

03 May, Tue

• Singapore, China and Japan holidays.
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement  
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Apr)
• 1700 Europe Unemployment Change (Apr)
• 1630 UK Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)

04 May, Wed

• China and Japan holidays.
• 0645 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
• 1700 Europe Retail Sales MoM (Mar)
• 2015 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
• 2030 US Balance of Trade (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Balance of Trade (Mar)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

05 May, Thu

• Japan holiday
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0645 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0945 China Caixin Services PMI (Apr)
• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Apr)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Apr)
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) 
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

06 May, Fri

• 0930 Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
• 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
• 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Apr)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Apr)
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr)