US Markets 03 Oct 26

The US market closed lower, except for the Nasdaq, which closed at the historic high.

The dollar index closed higher. It tested the weekly 200 MA resistance and closed below.

While Harpex and CCFI closed higher, BDI and CDFI closed lower.

Watch out for

• China short trading week
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Services PMI by multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Russell

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662, 56,792

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,929

Potential support around 7,693, 7,458, 7,222

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,822, 31,545

Potential support around 30,100, 29,378, 28,655

Russell
Daily DT Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951, 3,081, 3,212

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Oct, Mon

• China on holiday
• 1555 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
• 1630 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

06 Oct, Tue

• China on holiday
• 2145 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

07 Oct, Wed

• China on holiday
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Oct, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Oct, Fri

• 0100 US 30-Year Bond Auction 
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) ^P

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 03 Oct 26

BDI reversed to close lower, from 3,426 (25 Sep) to 3,148 (02 Oct)

Harpex closed higher, from 2,450 (25 Sep) to 2,456 (02 Oct)

CDFI reversed to close lower, from 1,761.82 (24 Sep) to 1,636.90 (30 Sep)

CCFI closed higher, from 1,917.68 (24 Sep) to 1,923.93 (30 Sep)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Lumber (1)
• Coffee (1)

Neutral

• Cocoa

Up Trend

• Silver
• Platinum (1)
• Gold

Instruments that show selling interest at extremes (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Sugar
• Soybean Meal
• Corn
• Copper

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index continued to close higher

The dollar index closed higher. It tested the weekly 200 MA resistance and closed below.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA