US Markets 25 Jul 26

The US market closed lower.
The S&P daily trend turned to neutral, and the Nasdaq daily trend turned to downtrend.

The dollar index is consolidating and closed higher.

While BDI and CCFI closed lower, CDFI closed higher, and Harpex remained unchanged.

Watch out for

• The US, UK, and Japan's interest rate decisions.
• CPI and GDP from multiple countries.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• Nasdaq (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Downtrend and uptrend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,458, 7,693

Potential support around 7,222, 6,987, 6,751

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 28,655, 29,378, 30,100

Potential support around 27,933, 27,210, 26,488

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 2,951, 3,081

Potential support around 2,821, 2,691, 2,561

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

27 Jul, Mon

• 2030 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) ^P
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) ^P

28 Jul, Tue

• 1300 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly  
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence  (Jul)

29 Jul, Wed

• 0930 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q2)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

30 Jul, Thu

• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision  
• 0200 US FOMC Statement 
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference 
• 1600 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ^P
• 1700 Europe GDP (YoY) (Q2) ^P
• 1900 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2000 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jul) ^P
• 2030 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ^P
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

31 Jul, Fri

• 0930 China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 0930 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jul) ^P
• 1700 Europe Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) ^P
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2145 US Chicago PMI (Jul)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 25 Jul 26

BDI continued to close lower from 2,752 (17 Jul) to 2,743 (24 Jul)

Harpex remained unchanged at 2,340 (24 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,460.64 (17 Jul) to 1,473.77 (24 Jul)

CCFI reversed to close lower from 1,910.67 (17 Jul) to 1.901.27 (24 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Cotton

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index is consolidating and closed higher.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 18 Jul 26

The US market and dollar index are consolidating and closed lower.
The Nasdaq daily trend turned to Neutral.

While BDI and CDFI reversed to close lower, Harpex and CCFI continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• Interest rate decision by Europe
• Preliminary manufacturing and services PMI from multiple countries

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• Nasdaq

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 52,533, 54,662

Potential support around 50,403, 48,273, 46,144

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,458, 7,693

Potential support around 7,222, 6,987, 6,751

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 29,378, 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 28,655, 27,933, 27,210

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

20 Jul, Mon

• Japan on holiday
• 0915 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jun)

21 Jul, Tue

• 1400 UK Unemployment Rate (May)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Jun)
• 1700 Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 1700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly  

22 Jul, Wed

• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

23 Jul, Thu

• 0930 Australia Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Jun)
• 2015 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
• 2015 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)
• 2030 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2045 Europe ECB Press Conference

24 Jul, Fri

• 0730 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 0730 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 1400 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
• 1400 UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
• 1530 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) ^P
• 1530 Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jul) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) ^P
• 1600 Europe HCOB Services PMI (Jul) ^P
• 1600 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) ^P
• 1600 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) ^P
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun)
• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) ^P
• 2145 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) ^P
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Jun)

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 18 Jul 26

BDI reversed to close lower from 2,944 (10 Jul) to 2,752 (17 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,337 (10 Jul) to 2,340 (17 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close lower from 1,466.68 (10 Jul) to 1,460.64 (17 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 1,873.15 (10 Jul) to 1,910.67 (17 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• Cotton

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index is consolidating

The dollar index is consolidating and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 11 Jul 26

The US market closed mixed. While the Dow and Russell closed higher, S&P and Nasdaq closed lower.

Harpex, BDI, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.

Watch out for

• US CPI
• Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
• Canada Interest rate decision 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• Nasdaq
• Russell

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend are based on 50 Simple Moving Averages

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 54,662

Potential support around 52,533, 50,403, 48,273

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 29,378, 28,655, 27,933

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

13 Jul, Mon

• No important data

14 Jul, Tue

• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly  
• 2030 US CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2200 US Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

15 Jul, Wed

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
• 1000 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2145 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision  
• 2200 US Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

16 Jul, Thu

• 1400 UK GDP (MoM) (May)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

17 Jul, Fri

• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Jun) ^P
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) ^P

^P: Preliminary Release

Commodities Update 11 Jul 26

BDI continued to close higher from 2,717 (03 Jul) to 2,944 (10 Jul)

Harpex closed higher from 2,327 (04 Jul) to  2,337 (10 Jul)

CDFI continued to close higher from 1,394.88 (04 Jul) to 1,466.68 (10 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 1,811.15 (04 Jul) to 1,873.15 (10 Jul)

COT     

Download Commodities COT

Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold
• Silver (1)
• Platinum (1)
• Crude

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Cocoa
• Heating Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• None

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal

Dollar Index directionless

The dollar index closed higher with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 04 Jul 26

The US market closed higher, except for Russell, which closed lower. The Dow closed at a historic high.

BDI reversed to close higher from 2,524 (26 Jun) to 2,717 (03 Jul)

Harpex unchanged at 2,327 (04 Jul)

CDFI reversed to close higher from 1,364.1 (26 Jun) to 1,394.88 (04 Jul)

CCFI closed higher from 1,710.47 (26 Jun) to 1,811.15 (04 Jul)

The dollar index continued to close higher.

Watch out for

• US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
• China and Germany CPI data

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 54,662

Potential support around 52,533, 50,403, 48,273

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 7,693

Potential support around 7,458, 7,222, 6,987

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 30,100, 30,822

Potential support around 29,378, 28,655, 27,933

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around  3,081

Potential support around 2,951, 2,821, 2,691

Key event to watch out for (SG Time, GMT+8)

06 Jul, Mon

• 2145 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

07 Jul, Tue

• 2015 US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Jun)

08 Jul, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Jul, Thu

• 0100 US 10-Year Note Auction  
• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes  
• 0930 China CPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 0930 China PPI (YoY) (Jun)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jun)

10 Jul, Fri

• New Zealand on holiday
• 0101 US 30-Year Bond Auction  
• 1400 Germany CPI (MoM) (Jun)
• 2030 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index broke the previous week's low and closed lower.
Resistance at 102.3, 103.6, 106.7
Support at 100.3, 99.8, 98.7

COT for Dollar Index

There will be no update on COT this week due to a delayed release date caused by a Federal holiday.

Weekly chart with 50 SMA