Dollar Index closed lower for another week

The dollar index continues to close lower.
Resistance at TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 24 Apr 2021

BDI closed higher from 2,385 (16 Apr) to 2,788 (23 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,559.56 (09 Apr) to 1,650.51 (16 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,373.65 (16 Apr) to 1,451.3 (23 Apr)

CCFI close higher from 1,853.53 (16 Apr) to 1903.5 (23 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 24 Apr 2021

US market closed lower except for Russell closed higher.
On the weekly chart, Dow closed with an inside day.  S&P, Nasdaq and Russell broke pwl (previous week low), recovered to close with a small +roc (close price > open price)

BDI, Harpex, CCFI and CDFI closed higher.

Dollar Index closed lower.

Watch out for

• Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• Canada BoC's Macklem speech
• Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• US FOMC Statement
• China Manufacturing PMI
• Switzerland SNB's Chairman Jordan speech

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

26 Apr, Mon

• New Zealand holiday
• 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)
• 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)

27 Apr, Tue

• 1100 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 1100 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• 1400 Japan BoJ Press Conference  
• 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)

28 Apr, Wed

• 0400 Canada BoC's Macklem speech
• 0930 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 Europe ECB's President Lagarde speech
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

29 Apr, Thu

• Japan holiday
• 0200 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 0230 US FOMC Press Conference  
• 0230 US FOMC Statement
• 1555 German Unemployment Change (Apr)
• 2200 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Pending Home Sales (Mar)

30 Apr, Fri

• 0900 China Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• 0930 Australia Producer Price Index
• 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
• 1600 Switzerland SNB's Chairman Jordan speech
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
• 1700 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)
• 2030 Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index closed lower

The dollar index continues to close lower.
Resistance at TLD1, 92.0, 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 17 Apr 2021

BDI closed higher from 2,085 (09 Apr) to 2,385 (16 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,492.47 (02 Apr) to 1,559.56 (09 Apr)

CDFI closed higher from 1,315.22 (09 Apr) to 1,373.65 (16 Apr)

CCFI close lower from 1,858.01 (02 Apr) to 1,853.53 (16 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Natural Gas
• Gold

Neutral

• None

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 17 Apr 2021

US market closed higher.  Dow and S&P closed at historic high.  Russell consolidating.

BDI, Harpex, and CDFI closed higher. CCFI closed lower.

Dollar Index closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,396

Potential support around 4,161, 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

19 Apr, Mon

• No important data

20 Apr, Tue

• 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
• 0930 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
• 1400 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb)
• 1400 UK Claimant Count Change (Mar)
• 1600 Europe ECB Bank Lending Survey

21 Apr, Wed

• 0645 New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
• 0930 Australia Retail Sales (MoM)  
• 1400 UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 1830 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
• 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2200 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report 
• 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 2300 Canada BOC Press Conference  

22 Apr, Thu

• 1945 Europe Deposit Facility Rate (Apr)
• 1945 Europe ECB Marginal Lending Facility
• 1945 Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 2030 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Mar)

23 Apr, Fri

• 1400 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
• 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite 
• 1630 UK Services PMI  
• 2200 US New Home Sales (Mar)

Dollar Index closed lower

On the weekly chart, the dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, TLD1, 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 10 Apr 2021

BDI closed slightly higher 2,072 (01 Apr) TO 2,085 (09 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,454.30 (26 Mar) to 1,492.47 (02 Apr)

CDFI closed lower from 1,316.94 (02 Apr) to 1,315.22 (09 Apr)

CCFI close lower from 1,871.78 (02 Apr) to 1,858.01 (02 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• None

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 10 Apr 2021

US market closed higher except for Russell closed lower.  Dow and S&P created a historic high.

BDI and Harpex closed higher. CDFI and CCFI closed lower.

The dollar index broke hlf (higher low formation) and closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 35,495

Potential support around 33,365, 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 13,485, 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

12 Apr, Mon

• 1700 Europe Retail Sales (YoY)

13 Apr, Tue

• 1400 UK GDP
• 1400 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
• 1630 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)
• 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
• 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)

14 Apr, Wed

• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 1000 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
• 1415 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

15 Apr, Thu

• 0000 US Fed's Chair Powell speech
• 0930 Australia Employment Change (Mar)
• 1400 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
• 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims
• 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
• 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

16 Apr, Fri

• 1000 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
• 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
• 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar)
• 2030 US Building Permits (Mar)
• 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Dollar Index tested resistance and pull back

The dollar index tested 93.3 level resistance and closed below the resistance.
Resistance at 93.3, 94.0, 95.0, 96.3, 97.3
Support at 92.0, TLD1, 90.6, 88.88, 86.8, 84.6

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 03 Apr 2021

BDI pull back from 2,178 (26 Mar) to 2,072 (01 Apr)

Harpex closed higher from 1,442.97 (19 Mar) to 1,454.30 (26 Mar)

CDFI closed lower from 1,317.46 (26 Mar) to 1,316.94 (02 Apr)

CCFI close higher from 1,836.61 (26 Mar) to 1,871.78 (02 Apr)

COT 

Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

• Gold

Neutral

• Natural Gas

Up Trend

• Gasoline

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

• Corn

Neutral

• None

Down Trend

• None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for a trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Market 03 Apr 2021

US market closed higher.  On the weekly chart, Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf (lower high formation).  Russell closed with an inside day.  S&P broke 4,000 marks.

BDI and CDFI closed lower.  Harpex and CCFI closed higher.

The Dollar Index tested resistance and pull back.

Watch out for 

• RBA Interest Rate Decision
• FOMC meeting minutes
• ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

• None

Neutral 

• None

DT 

• None

Note

(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Dow

Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 33,365, 35,495

Potential support around 31,236, 29,407, 29,106, 28,912

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 4,161, 4,396

Potential support around 3,925, 3,690, 3,579, 3,454, 3,388

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT

Potential resistance around 13,485, 14,207, 14,930

Potential support around 12,762, 12,410, 12,040, 11,318

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,300, 2,430

Potential support around 2,170, 2,040, 1,910, 1,779

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)

05 Apr, Mon

• Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, China and most European countries are on holiday
• 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

06 Apr, Tue

• Hong Kong holiday
• 1230 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
• 1230 Australia RBA Rate Statement 
• 2200 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 
• 2200 US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) 

07 Apr, Wed

• 1630 UK Composite PMI (Mar)
• 1630 UK Services PMI (Mar)
• 2030 US Goods Trade Balance
• 2200 Canada Ivey PMI (Mar)
• 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories

08 Apr, Thu

• 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 0750 Japan Current Account n.s.a.
• 1630 UK Construction PMI (Mar)
• 1930 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims

09 Apr, Fri

• 0000 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 0930 China Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• 2030 US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
• 2030 Canada Employment Change (Mar)