Monitor to short metals

Metals COT buying interested is decreasing.  Based on LW's theory (COT <=10) , may look for short if the trend is down.  Silver COT selling interest is in the extreme but trend is not in favour, therefore will need to wait.  Gold COT had slightly increased from 10 to 20 in the month of Jul.  May monitor metals to short after the change of trend.

Looking to short Gold

Looking to short gold small if break hlf, 
1) hlf 2ET
2) COT buying interest for dealer extreme -ve while others extreme +ve
3) below Diff

Size small because is UT

Silver COT selling interest at extreme

Silver COT selling interest at extreme while Gold buying interest decreased sharply.
COT raw data for Silver show an increased of short positions for Processor and decreased for long positions  while COT raw data for Gold show no of short positions for Processor and Swap Dealer increased much more than long positions

Precious metal is a safe heaven for traders and investors.  Silver is in selling extreme region, will Gold follow?  From the above chart, there is a high probability.  Traders may be in the process of moving their fund out from precious metal as safe heaven and re-position to stock markets?  Since COT for US markets and Nikkei are at or near to buying extreme

From the above weekly chart, Gold and silver had broke out from the DT channel.  To ride the wave down, need to wait more concrete signal to increase the probability of profitable trade. If break down and closed below the week low (last 2nd bar from the right, green arrow) will be a one of the confirmation signal to short.

Gold and Silver (03 Oct 15)

Gold
DT
Gold broke pwl and recovered but resisted by weekly Diff RL and TL3.  Fri closed with an outside day bar, short term may go higher  Next resistance at 1,155.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,104, 1,072 and 995

Silver
DT
Silver broke pwl, pwh and TL4, washing some of the weak holder.  Inside bar of 14 Sep in weekly chart.  Fri closed with an outside day bar, short term may go higher.  Next resistance at TL2
Potential Resistance 15.65, 16.15, 16.82 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.60, 14.22 and 12.70

Gold and Silver (19 Sep 15)

Gold
DT
Gold broke pwh and TL4.  Next resistance at TL3 and 1,155.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072 and 995

COT for Gold - Buying interest is not at extreme (>90) but still above 70 level, may go long if there is a trend reversal

Silver
DT
Silver broke pwh and TL4.  Inside bar of 24 Aug in weekly chart.
Next resistance at TL2.
Potential Resistance 15.60, 16.68 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

COT for Silver - Similar to Gold, not at extreme (>90) but still above 70 level, may go long if there is a trend reversal 

Gold and Silver

Gold
DT
Gold broke pwh, tested TL3 but unable to hold and pull back below 1,155 level.  Looking to short if break pwl.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072 and 995

Silver
DT
After failed to overcome TL2, Silver sell down tested 14.22 and recovered for 2 weeks.  Currently supported by TL3 and 14.22 level.  Staying neutral for now.
Potential Resistance 15.60, 16.68 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

Gold and Silver

Gold
DT
Gold break out of inside day and Diff on Wed, closed off above 1,155 resistance and TL2.  If Gold can hold above 1,155 and TL3 for next few days, it may test 1,224
Potential Resistance  1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,155, 1,072 and 995

Silver
DT
Silver formed a Doji on weekly chart, resisted by TL2.  Outside day is formed on daily and weekly chart, potential of a new trend
Potential Resistance 15.60, 16.68 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

Gold and Silver

Gold
DT
Gold recovered this week but still an inside bar of 19 Jul week.  
Gold resistance at 1,155, TL2 and TL3 while support level at 1,072
Breaking 1,155 resistance level, may test 1,224.  Breaking and closed below 1,072 may see Gold testing 995 level.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072, 995 and 848

Silver
DT
Silver currently supported by weekly Diff SL at 14.38, TL3 and TL4. 
Breaking and closed above TL2 resistance, may see Silver testing 16.68 level.
Potential Resistance 15.80, 16.68 and 17.23
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

Gold and Silver

DT
In consolidation mode, moving within Diff.  Will not trade till clearer signal on break out or break down.  The longer the consolidation period, the higher probability of explosive movement

Gold and Silver

 

Gold
DT
Continue to sell down tested the support 1072 and rebounded.  
With US interest rate hike just around the corner, inflation remained low.  Europe issue did not result sustainable rise in Gold price, Gold will be heading to test next support level which is 995.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072, and 995
 
Silver
DT
Broke hlf in weekly chart, likely silver will try to test 14.22 (recent low)
Potential Resistance 14.74, 15.58 and 16.68
Potential Support 14.22 and 12.70

Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver
DT
Broke trend line support.  Gold trading within down trend channel while Silver is trading above down trend channel and on Fri (17 Jul) closed within the Diff.  Silver COT buying interest is above 90.  From the charts, Silver seem to be less bearish than Gold
Gold
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072, and 995
Silver
Potential Resistance 15.28, 16.68 and 17.78
Potential Support 14.68, 14.24 and 12.70

Silver broke down

On my posting in Aug 2014, Silver may break in weeks, Silver broke down despite COT index hit extreme.  During that period, I am looking forward for Silver to go higher as COT is building up.

Most of the metals COT show buying interest are building up and yet price keep lowering.  One of the main reason for commodity weakness is due to strengthening of USD.  Monthly chart (50 SMA) show UT still intact.  I will wait for price action, 2ET before entering.