Sunday, May 26, 2019

Dollar Index closed lower

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke pwh, failed to sustain and closed lower
Resistance at 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 25 May 19

BDI closed higher from 1,040 (17 May) to 1,066 (24 May)
Harpex moving higher, from 586.85 (10 May) to 596.09 (17 May)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Orange Juice
  • Soybeans (1) 
  • Soybean Meal
  • Soybean Oil 
  • Sugar (1)
  • Natural Gas
  • Gold
  • Silver
  • Copper
  • Palladium
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Cotton (1)
  • Lumber (1) 
Neutral
  • Heating Oil (1) 
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Corn
  • Rough Rice
  • Crude (1) 

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 25 May 19

On the weekly chart, US markets closed lower except Nasdaq closed higher.  Dow and S&P closed with an inside day.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • Dow
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None




Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around
 25,645, 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,854, 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,825, 2,814, 2,786, 2,747, 2,710

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,516, 7,706, 8,428
Potential support around  7,282, 7,134, 6,982, 6,516, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly 
Neutral
Potential resistance around 
1,519, 1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708
Potential support around 1,508, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time, GMT+8)
27 May, Mon
  • UK, US holiday
  • 1000 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
28 May, Tue
  • 1700 UK Inflation Report Hearings 
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (May) 
29 May, Wed
  • 0800 Japan BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
  • 1555 German Unemployment Change (May)
  • 2200 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 
  • 2200 Canada BoC Rate Statement  
30 May, Thu
  • Switzerland holiday
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
31 May, Fri
  • 1000 China Manufacturing PMI (May) 
  • 2000 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
  • 2030 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ)
  • 2200 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Monday, May 20, 2019

Dollar Index rallied

On the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke lhf and rallied higher with an outside day
Resistance at 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 97.3, 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 18 May 19

BDI closed higher for another week from 1,013 (10 May) to 1,040 (17 May)
Harpex edging higher, from 586.25 (03 May) to 586.85 )10 May)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Orange Juice
  • Soybeans (1) 
  • Soybean Meal
  • Soybean Oil 
  • Sugar (1)
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver
  • Copper
  • Palladium
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Cotton (1)
  • Lumber (1) 
Neutral
  • Wheat
  • Corn  (1)
  • Gold
Up Trend
  • Rough Rice
  • Crude (1) 
  • Heating Oil (1) 

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 18 May 19

On the weekly chart, US markets broke pdl and recovered some losses to close above pwl except for Russell closed below pwl.

BDI and Harpex closed higher.

Dollar Index closed rallied higher.


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around
 25,784, 26,245, 26,627, 26,976, 29,106
Potential support around 25,645, 25,326, 24,837, 24,170, 23,567, 23,435

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,874, 2,940, 2,983, 3,219
Potential support around 2,825, 2,814, 2,786, 2,747, 2,710

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 7,516, 7,706, 8,428
Potential support around  7,282, 7,134, 6,982, 6,516, 6,346, 6,261

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly 
Neutral
Potential resistance around 
1,543, 1,585, 1,609, 1,624, 1,683, 1,708
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388, 1,341, 1,296

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
20 May, Mon
  • Canada, Singapore holiday
  • 0750 Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  
21 May, Tue
  • 0700 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks  
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes  
  • 1800 UK Inflation Report Hearings  
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (MoM)
22 May, Wed
  • 1500 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 1630 UK CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories 
23 May, Thu
  • 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes 
  • 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (May)  
  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index 
  • 1600 Europe Markit PMI Composite
  • 1630 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
  • 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)
24 May, Fri
  • 1630 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar Index closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.7, TLU1, 99.8
Support at 96.3, 95.0, 94.0, 93.3, 92.0, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 11 May 19

BDI closed higher again from 985 (03 May) to 1,013 (10 May)
Harpex edging higher, from 585.66 (26 Apr) to 586.25 (03 May)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Coffee
  • Orange Juice (1) 
  • Corn (1) 
  • Soybeans (1) 
  • Soybean Meal
  • Soybean Oil (1) 
  • Wheat
  • Sugar
  • Natural Gas
  • Gold (1) 
  • Silver
  • Palladium
  • Lumber (1) 
Neutral
  • Cotton 
Up Trend
  • Rough Rice (1) 
  • Crude (1) 
  • Heating Oil (1) 

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average